Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kemps Mill, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:52PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 9:11 AM EST (14:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:33AMMoonset 2:05PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 843 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 843 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will push east of the waters this morning. High pressure will return this afternoon and persist into the weekend. Low pressure will pass to the south off the carolina coast Thursday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemps Mill, MD
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location: 39.63, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 190848 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push east of the area this morning. High pressure will build this afternoon into Thursday morning. Low pressure will pass to the south Thursday and off the Carolina coast Thursday night. High pressure will return Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Secondary cold front moving east of the forecast area early this morning. This is the boundary which marks the onset of cold advection (DCA 2 am temp was still 53 degrees) with a brief burst of wind and a few sprinkles. Model soundings suggest that 25-30 kt resides just a few thousand feet aloft, but ample cloud cover has impeded good mixing thus far.

Believe that clouds should start to part by dawn across northern Maryland and the clearing will work southeast through noon. Despite good cold advection aloft, the compressional warming aspect of northwest wind should balance it out. Add the warm start this morning, and highs should once again be in the lower 50s, except mid- upper 40s across northern Maryland/eastern West Virginia. Sided with the better performing ECWMF temperature guidance.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will be building across the Mid Atlantic tonight. However, another upper level jet max will be crossing the forecast area, which likely will support increasing upper level clouds. Consequently, believe skies will become partly-mostly cloudy overnight. Should be good radiational cooling up to that point, and the veil of clouds should be thin enough to not be a big player across much of Maryland. Forecast lows will be in the mid-upper 20s, but around 30 downtown DC/Baltimore.

High pressure will continue to build across the CONUS Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile a weak impulse will be headed east within the southern stream, along the northern Gulf Coast. (The dominant nature of the high will keep the storm track suppressed.) While there is still inconsistency amongst model guidance, there is a signal that the low may be a pinch stronger than previously advertised. Also, a northern stream shortwave trough still progged to swing across the Great Lakes and northeast Thursday-Thursday night. The forecast challenge has been how much interaction these two features will have and what the end result will be. The series of forecast events and recent trends suggest that there will be enough influence between the two to develop a shield of precipitation across the southeastern United States, and the northern edge of this shield has been nudging north. For the most part have kept chance PoPs south of the forecast area, bringing a slight chance across central Virginia and southern Maryland. There is still room for that forecast to be adjusted, as there is model support for a more northern solution. Current forecast has strong backing from ECMWF.

Thermally, in spite of cold advection (which would become enhanced from a low tracking south of the area), temperatures would still reach the lower 40s Thursday afternoon. Aloft, its plenty cold to support snow (850 temps near -10C). Therefore, at ground level it could be either rain or snow depending upon extent of melting and size of hydrometeor. But after dark, the boundary layer should cool, supporting all snow. Again, this scenario depict what form the precipitation would take if it did fall . which remains a low probability event at this time. Therefore, there are no snow accumulation forecasts as its not anticipated at this time. (Its worth noting that the reasonable worse case probability output does suggest non-zero accumulations possible south of DC. Please consult our winter weather webpage for this data.) We will be watching these trends though the day.

Once the impulse departs Friday morning, high pressure will return. Temperatures will remain colder than normal, reinforced by the departing system.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A sprawling area of high pressure will be situated over much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Saturday. This high will become centered overhead Saturday Night, before shifting offshore on Sunday. With high pressure in control, wall to wall sunshine is expected on Saturday, with clear skies continuing through Saturday Night. Some high clouds may start to work back in by late Sunday afternoon, but overall Sunday is expected to be a mostly sunny day. Temperatures will run slightly above normal for late February, with highs in the low to mid 50s.

Meanwhile, an initially closed upper low will rapidly track across across the CONUS, eventually shearing out into an open wave before reaching the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. The eventual track of this system is still somewhat in question, and will be influenced by both a shortwave to the north tracking across southern Canada, as well as a trough digging into the western CONUS. While the finer scale details with this system are still uncertain, it does appear as though chances for showers will increase late Sunday Night through Monday within the zone of warm advection at low-mid levels in advance of the approaching trough. While a little mixed precip can't be ruled out across far western/higher elevation locations, overall this system looks warm, with most areas seeing plain rain throughout the event. Chances for showers may linger into Tuesday, depending on how quickly the trough progresses off to our east.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR conditions anticipated today. Any sprinkles will end by dawn. Ceilings in the 6000-7500 ft range and will gradually lift and dissipate this morning. Northwest winds will gust to 20-25 kt this morning as well before the pressure gradient relaxes this afternoon. High pressure tonight into Thursday morning. Upper level moisture and energy will lead to a high cloud deck.

A weak impulse will pass south of the terminals Thursday afternoon and evening. The main impact should be to lower clouds to 4000-5000 ft (perhaps to 3000 ft toward CHO). In a worse case scenario, precipitation (rain/snow to all snow) may spread north toward the area, especially CHO. Do not believe there would be any accumulations, but am not 100% certain of that.

VFR/high pressure will return Friday into the weekend.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory conditions beginning to overtake the waters in the wake of a cold front. Northwest winds to 25 kt will likely continue through midday. High pressure follows thereafter.

An impulse will pass south of the waters Thursday afternoon- evening. A northern stream trough axis will cross the Great Lakes/northeastern United States at the same time. SCA winds may return in the wake of these features, continuing into Friday.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected during the upcoming weekend with high pressure in control.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ534- 537-543.

SYNOPSIS . HTS NEAR TERM . HTS SHORT TERM . HTS LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . HTS/KJP MARINE . HTS/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi53 min 44°F 44°F1026.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi59 min 43°F 43°F1025.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 73 mi53 min 43°F 1025.8 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD6 mi78 minW 310.00 miFair36°F21°F57%1027.1 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi78 minNW 1010.00 miFair37°F21°F54%1026.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

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Last 24hrS12S10S11S8S7CalmN8NW7N3CalmNW5CalmCalmNW3NW10NW6NW12NW16NW13NW11NW13NW7W3NW13
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalm3E3SE3E3SE5SE12--SE5S9SE11S13S12SE9S8S5S7SE10
2 days agoS3S4S7SW4S5S5SW5S5CalmNE4N4N7N5E4NW4NW5NW7CalmNE4N3N6NW4N4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:13 AM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:39 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:05 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.41.11.82.32.52.41.91.40.80.40.10.10.51.21.92.52.82.82.521.510.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.