Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kemps Mill, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:23PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 10:27 AM EDT (14:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:28PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 736 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Patchy drizzle this morning, then showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters through this evening. High pressure will build from the mid-south across the mid-atlantic then off the new england coast Wednesday through Thursday night. A cold front may approach from the ohio valley Friday, then an area of low pressure may approach from the tennessee valley over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemps Mill, MD
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location: 39.63, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220805
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
405 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region through this evening. High
pressure will build from the mid-south across the mid-atlantic
then off the new england coast Wednesday through Thursday night.

A cold front may approach from the ohio valley Friday, then an
area of low pressure may approach from the tennessee valley
over the weekend.

Near term through tonight
A cold front will cross the area from west to east today. Plenty
of moisture to work with in addition to a strong low-level jet,
so a band of widespread moderate to at times heavy showers are
anticipated areawide.

Rainfall amounts should average around a half an inch, with
locally higher amounts possible. Soundings don't indicate much
in the way of instability, so left thunder out of the forecast
for now. There's a chance of a stronger wind gust or two
particularly over southern maryland where there's a little less
of a near-surface stable layer.

Temperatures will be held in the 60s today with the clouds and
showers around, then fall into the 40s tonight with clearing and
drying expected.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
High pressure building over the mid-south will push
northeastward over the mid-atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. Dry
weather and seasonable temperatures are expected during this
time, with very little in the way of cloud cover.

Wednesday night looks to be the coldest night as the high moves
overhead, with patchy frost possible in the typically cooler
locations early Thursday morning.

Long term Friday through Monday
Locally, Friday will likely remain dry and seasonable as high
pressure remains nearby and a weak boundary may cross. However,
model guidance differences are already in place -- namely
whether there will be a closed low over the desert southwest
(e.G., ECMWF cmc) or an open trough (gfs). The open trough would
result in a more progressive solution, with a storm system
arriving to the east coast and bringing rain over the weekend
(but perhaps not both days). If the closed low develops, it will
promote downstream ridging and dry weather through Saturday.

With the more amplified pattern, the storm system would likely
lift to our west, with low rain chances for Sunday and greater
risk for showers early next week as the trailing frontal zone
lingers over the area. Due to the uncertainty in storm track,
there isn't a great deal of confidence in temperatures either,
though they shouldn't venture into the extreme in either
direction.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
Ifr CIGS likely for a time this morning, before lifting briefly
to MVFR. Ifr vsby possible in showers this afternoon 18-22z,
with intermittent lower CIGS to ifr possible as well. Conditions
clear this evening after 22-00z. SE flow today could gust a bit
to 15-20 kts, then gust again this evening immediately behind a
cold front out of the nw.

Vfr expected Wednesday into Thursday with W to SW flow.

Vfr conditions are likely Friday, but confidence decreases over
the weekend as a storm system approaches from the west.

Marine
Sca gusts likely for a time ahead of a frontal system today,
with a lull late this afternoon into early evening before
another period of gusts out of the NW behind the cold front.

Winds linger into Wednesday before gradually subsiding late in
the day, with light winds under high pressure then expected
through Thursday.

Sca conditions are unlikely Friday and Saturday with high pressure
nearby.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies are close to a foot and a half... Leveling off in the
northern bay but still rising to the south. These elevated water
levels will persist into tonight. Have issued advisories for the
next cycle (or two) where confidence is in place. Have left the
watch in effect for annapolis since the forecast is near threshold.

Have also issued a watch for st. Marys: even though the current
forecast falls just short, the stevens ensemble for lewisetta
suggests moderate flooding is possible on the potomac.

A cold front will move through the area late tonight, which will
yield decreasing anomalies as winds turn out of the west northwest
by Wednesday morning. However, additional advisories will likely be
needed as the overnight high tide will be higher astronomically and
water will be slow to exit.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
this evening for dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 7 am edt this morning for mdz508.

Coastal flood watch from this evening through late tonight for
mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for mdz011.

Coastal flood watch from this evening through late tonight for
mdz017.

Coastal flood advisory until noon edt today for mdz017.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Wednesday for anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz535-536.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Ads
aviation... Ads dhof
marine... Ads dhof
tides coastal flooding... Ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi57 min SSE 6 G 8.9 59°F 62°F1015.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi57 min S 5.1 G 11 60°F 66°F1015.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 73 mi57 min SE 9.9 G 12 59°F 1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD6 mi34 minS 910.00 miOvercast58°F53°F84%1014.4 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi34 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast57°F53°F87%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmCalmW6CalmSW4S6S6SE6E4E4S8SE9SE7S9
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1 day agoN5N6N8N7N8N7N7N7N6N8N7N5N5NW5N4N3N6N5N4N4CalmCalm4NE3
2 days agoCalmS8S10S9S8S6S7SE5E4SE5SE5SE6CalmS6S4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmW3SE3NE3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:05 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:59 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.32.93.132.62.11.51.10.70.50.50.81.52.22.72.82.62.21.61.10.70.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.