Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cherry Creek, CO
December 2, 2023 1:46 PM MST (20:46 UTC)
Sunrise 7:00AM Sunset 4:37PM Moonrise 10:33PM Moonset 12:39PM
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 021824 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1124 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Mountain snow and winds will increase tonight with areas of moderate to heavy snow and significant blowing snow creating very difficult travel Saturday night and Sunday morning.
- Strong winds are expected to develop across the mountains and higher foothills tonight and continue into Sunday night, with a few gusts greater than 75 mph possible.
UPDATE
Issued at 956 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
Going forecast to on track with widespread snow falling across the mountains. Lift from this first wave is about to shift off to the east and snow is expected to become light and end in places this afternoon. This lull will be short lived as snow increases this evening as the next wave approaches the Central Rockies. Did some fine tuning to PoPs and QPF, but no major changes were made to PoPs and snowfall amounts.
As far as the High Wind Watch goes, it is still unclear if we see high winds (75 mph or greater) tonight and/or Sunday. Mountain wave set up isn't great, though the NAM shows a brief mountain with a stable layer and reverse wind profile centered around 06Z Sunday. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, one would think the biggest threat for high winds would occur with subsidence behind the second stronger wave Sunday afternoon and evening. Will take a peak at some of the 18Z HiRes models and then make a final decision to upgrade or cancel and if the times need to be refined.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 452 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
No changes to the big picture, but models and our forecasts continue to struggle a bit with the timing of the weather associated with fast moving shortwaves. One area of lift will move from the mountains across the plains this morning with a quick shot of enhanced snow showers for the mountains and clouds for the plains for a few hours. Then there's a break this afternoon, and warm advection clouds ahead of the next wave will be moving in this evening.
Winds aloft will start to increase, but we won't have a favorable temperature/shear profile for wave amplification, just very strong flow over the ridge. For tonight, the high wind threat is probably mainly above 8,000 feet due to the momentum spilling over, but it will be hard to get it to descend. There will be a better chance of wave amplification and more widespread high winds later on Sunday.
As for the snow, after this little batch the next several hours it will probably be light for much of the day. With cold temperatures, there will likely still be some impact, but the more heavily maintained mountain highways should see some improvement.
Stronger flow aloft and increasing lift will produce heavier snow tonight, especially near the northern border.
We changed the timing on the High Wind Watch to start at 8 PM. No other changes to the highlights.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 452 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
By Sunday at 12Z, an upper trough is exiting the CWA with strong north-northwesterly flow aloft behind it through the day and Sunday night. There is a jet maximum over the CWA Sunday afternoon with speeds in the core of 110-125 knots depending on the model.
There is fairly strong upward vertical velocity Sunday morning on the QG fields. The orographic snowfall in the mountains looks pretty decent Sunday morning with deep moisture on the cross sections. The moisture decreases gradually Sunday afternoon and Sunday overnight, but will still need substantial pops for the high mountains through Sunday night. Some of the models even have some moisture over the western half of the plains on Sunday, but the strong downsloping will keep pops very low. The strong downsloping over the foothills will keep snow highlights away from those areas as well. Will keep snow highlights going in the mountains and high Parks. With various model inputs as well as the orographic snow model, will increase the snowfall amounts for Zones 31, 33 and 34, and will get those numbers in the highlight statement.
Concerning the high winds, I will extend the High Wind Watch for the rest of Sunday (afternoon) and Sunday evening based on the very strong winds aloft and cross sections showing a mountain wave set up late afternoon into the Sunday evening.
On Monday and Monday night, the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly and decreases gradually. Shallow moisture is progged to linger in the high mountains early Monday, but the airmass is pretty dry both periods. For temperatures, Sunday's readings will stay below normal values, with a decent warm-up, especially on the plains, for Monday.
For the later days, Tuesday through Friday, upper ridging and a dry airmass moves into and across the CWA Tuesday through Wednesday night. Zonal flow aloft will increase Thursday into Friday, becoming more southwesterly Friday night in advance of an upper trough for next weekend. Moisture will also increase Friday and Friday night with the incoming system. Temperatures will stay above normals Tuesday through Friday, with Wednesday being the warmest day.|
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
VFR conditions expected this afternoon and tonight. Enhanced NW winds at 10-20 kts continue through the afternoon with gusts 20-30 kts. BJC will gust higher up to 40 kts. Winds at DEN and APA decrease early this evening transitioning to southerly by 02z.
Winds increase after 06z out of the SW at 10-15 kts at DEN/APA.
BJC will likely tap more into the enhanced winds off the foothills early Sunday morning with gusts 35-45 kts with the highest gusts likely in the 06-12z timeframe.
Winds at DEN/APA will be a challenge Sunday. Winds could stay more westerly late morning then transition to NW in the afternoon or they could transition more quickly mid-morning. What we do know is that winds should settle NW/NNW in the afternoon with gusts. There is a low chance for gusts above 25 kts. Another element worth mentioning will be the low chance ( < 20%) for a brief snow shower in the morning (13-17z) timeframe. Communicated this potential as a VCSH shower for now due to the low probability. If these showers occur, brief reduction in visibility and lower ceilings (MVFR)
could be possible.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ030-032.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ033- 034.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ033-034.
High Wind Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Sunday evening for COZ035-036.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1124 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Mountain snow and winds will increase tonight with areas of moderate to heavy snow and significant blowing snow creating very difficult travel Saturday night and Sunday morning.
- Strong winds are expected to develop across the mountains and higher foothills tonight and continue into Sunday night, with a few gusts greater than 75 mph possible.
UPDATE
Issued at 956 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
Going forecast to on track with widespread snow falling across the mountains. Lift from this first wave is about to shift off to the east and snow is expected to become light and end in places this afternoon. This lull will be short lived as snow increases this evening as the next wave approaches the Central Rockies. Did some fine tuning to PoPs and QPF, but no major changes were made to PoPs and snowfall amounts.
As far as the High Wind Watch goes, it is still unclear if we see high winds (75 mph or greater) tonight and/or Sunday. Mountain wave set up isn't great, though the NAM shows a brief mountain with a stable layer and reverse wind profile centered around 06Z Sunday. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, one would think the biggest threat for high winds would occur with subsidence behind the second stronger wave Sunday afternoon and evening. Will take a peak at some of the 18Z HiRes models and then make a final decision to upgrade or cancel and if the times need to be refined.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 452 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
No changes to the big picture, but models and our forecasts continue to struggle a bit with the timing of the weather associated with fast moving shortwaves. One area of lift will move from the mountains across the plains this morning with a quick shot of enhanced snow showers for the mountains and clouds for the plains for a few hours. Then there's a break this afternoon, and warm advection clouds ahead of the next wave will be moving in this evening.
Winds aloft will start to increase, but we won't have a favorable temperature/shear profile for wave amplification, just very strong flow over the ridge. For tonight, the high wind threat is probably mainly above 8,000 feet due to the momentum spilling over, but it will be hard to get it to descend. There will be a better chance of wave amplification and more widespread high winds later on Sunday.
As for the snow, after this little batch the next several hours it will probably be light for much of the day. With cold temperatures, there will likely still be some impact, but the more heavily maintained mountain highways should see some improvement.
Stronger flow aloft and increasing lift will produce heavier snow tonight, especially near the northern border.
We changed the timing on the High Wind Watch to start at 8 PM. No other changes to the highlights.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 452 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
By Sunday at 12Z, an upper trough is exiting the CWA with strong north-northwesterly flow aloft behind it through the day and Sunday night. There is a jet maximum over the CWA Sunday afternoon with speeds in the core of 110-125 knots depending on the model.
There is fairly strong upward vertical velocity Sunday morning on the QG fields. The orographic snowfall in the mountains looks pretty decent Sunday morning with deep moisture on the cross sections. The moisture decreases gradually Sunday afternoon and Sunday overnight, but will still need substantial pops for the high mountains through Sunday night. Some of the models even have some moisture over the western half of the plains on Sunday, but the strong downsloping will keep pops very low. The strong downsloping over the foothills will keep snow highlights away from those areas as well. Will keep snow highlights going in the mountains and high Parks. With various model inputs as well as the orographic snow model, will increase the snowfall amounts for Zones 31, 33 and 34, and will get those numbers in the highlight statement.
Concerning the high winds, I will extend the High Wind Watch for the rest of Sunday (afternoon) and Sunday evening based on the very strong winds aloft and cross sections showing a mountain wave set up late afternoon into the Sunday evening.
On Monday and Monday night, the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly and decreases gradually. Shallow moisture is progged to linger in the high mountains early Monday, but the airmass is pretty dry both periods. For temperatures, Sunday's readings will stay below normal values, with a decent warm-up, especially on the plains, for Monday.
For the later days, Tuesday through Friday, upper ridging and a dry airmass moves into and across the CWA Tuesday through Wednesday night. Zonal flow aloft will increase Thursday into Friday, becoming more southwesterly Friday night in advance of an upper trough for next weekend. Moisture will also increase Friday and Friday night with the incoming system. Temperatures will stay above normals Tuesday through Friday, with Wednesday being the warmest day.|
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
VFR conditions expected this afternoon and tonight. Enhanced NW winds at 10-20 kts continue through the afternoon with gusts 20-30 kts. BJC will gust higher up to 40 kts. Winds at DEN and APA decrease early this evening transitioning to southerly by 02z.
Winds increase after 06z out of the SW at 10-15 kts at DEN/APA.
BJC will likely tap more into the enhanced winds off the foothills early Sunday morning with gusts 35-45 kts with the highest gusts likely in the 06-12z timeframe.
Winds at DEN/APA will be a challenge Sunday. Winds could stay more westerly late morning then transition to NW in the afternoon or they could transition more quickly mid-morning. What we do know is that winds should settle NW/NNW in the afternoon with gusts. There is a low chance for gusts above 25 kts. Another element worth mentioning will be the low chance ( < 20%) for a brief snow shower in the morning (13-17z) timeframe. Communicated this potential as a VCSH shower for now due to the low probability. If these showers occur, brief reduction in visibility and lower ceilings (MVFR)
could be possible.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ030-032.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ033- 034.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ033-034.
High Wind Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Sunday evening for COZ035-036.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO | 5 sm | 53 min | NW 15G25 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 39°F | 7°F | 26% | 29.82 | |
| KDEN DENVER INTL,CO | 18 sm | 53 min | W 25G34 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 41°F | 3°F | 20% | 29.80 | |
| KCFO COLORADO AIR AND SPACE PORT,CO | 20 sm | 59 min | W 23G30 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | -0°F | 16% | 29.82 | |
| KBJC ROCKY MOUNTAIN METROPOLITAN,CO | 23 sm | 59 min | W 19G31 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 39°F | 5°F | 24% | 29.84 |
Wind History from APA
(wind in knots)
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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