Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ship Bottom, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:04PM Friday August 7, 2020 7:29 PM EDT (23:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers until early morning. A chance of tstms. Areas of fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Areas of fog early in the morning. A chance of showers early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt late in the morning, then becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 702 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak stationary front will linger across the northern mid- atlantic today before washing north Saturday. On Sunday a weak cold front will move through the region. High pressure will build into the area Sunday behind the front, before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach new england around the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ship Bottom , NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 072218 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 618 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak stationary front will linger across the northern Mid- Atlantic today before washing north Saturday. On Sunday a weak cold front will move through the region. High pressure will build into the area Sunday behind the front, before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach New England around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Showers and thunderstorms intensifying over portions of the Delaware Valley, generally across northern Delaware, southeast Pennsylvania, and now those storms are moving into southwest New Jersey. These storms have produced flash flooding, and have been severe, producing rotation that resulted in a Tornado Warning.

Going through the evening, those storms will continue to track to the east through around 9 pm. Damaging winds remain possible, as well as flash flooding. Once again, the heaviest rain looks to be targeting many of the same areas in SE PA that were just hit hard by Isaias (Chester, Berks, Montgomery County, Greater Philly area) with 1-hour flash flood guidance under an inch in much of this area. PWATs are near 1.75 inches and profiles indicate training of cells SW to NE will be possible while overall system slowly moves E/SE. So storms will be capable of producing flash flooding.

Convection will likely be ongoing near and after sunset, but as instability is lost, the trend should be towards mainly rain- free weather for the remainder of the overnight, especially after midnight. The big concern tonight may end up being low stratus and fog development. Near calm surface winds and plentiful low level moisture combined with a saturated ground should yield areas of fog. The trough approaching from the west should create enough turbulence to prevent widespread dense fog, but cannot rule it out. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s to around 70.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. For Saturday, a progressive upper trough centered near the coast early in the day will move east with time with weak shortwave ridging approaching by late day. This should mean an overall drier day but there will still be significant low clouds and some fog around to start the day. And because low level winds will be quite light and there is so much moisture around, this could take some time to mix out. The upshot is that the morning should be mostly cloudy before some sun develops in the afternoon. However diurnal heating along with the continuing abundant moisture around could lead to some isolated to scattered afternoon storms developing. This won't be a washout though so it should be rain-free most of the time and many areas won't even see anything. It will still be fairly humid with lows mostly in the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Saturday night into Sunday the mid-level disturbance from Friday will be finally exiting New England with lower PWAT air moving across the region. As the wave exits, brief subsidence will take shape across the area as surface high pressure centers over the Ohio Valley. The GFS and ECMWF does have a weak upper level disturbance traversing the Canadian Maritimes, but the system appears to far north, with to much dry air overhead to produce anything in the way of precipitation. Temperatures Sunday will likely be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees as the dry air mass will allow temperatures to over perform.

Monday temperatures will remain warm as mid-level heights rise across the region and PWATs remain around 1.40". Tuesday into Wednesday an upper level low will head east across central Canada with an upper level disturbance approaching from the west. Overall, guidance has slowed down a bit from this time yesterday, with delaying the return of rain chances until Tuesday. An upper level wave will approach the area from the west Wednesday afternoon with significant uncertainty on the track and strength of the wave. Either way, the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday into Thursday a cold front will approach New England with models showing a wide spread here. The GFS and CMC are slightly more amplified and slower with the upper level low over the Hudson Bay while the ECMWF is less amplified and more progressive. The GFS stalls the front across central/ southern NY, while the ECMWF keeps the front stalled across northern NY. For us this means an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . SHRA/TSRA impacting the I-95 corridor terminals throgh this evening. Damaging winds possible, as well as torrential rainfall. Localized sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, a mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs will give way to sub-VFR in fog/stratus. Light NE winds becoming light and variable or calm. Moderate confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night . Mainly VFR, but areas of MVFR possible especially near MIV and ACY during the day Saturday. Slight chance of a rain shower but tstms not expected. Winds mainly light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Sunday-Sunday night . VFR. Light and variable wind becoming SW at 5 to 10 kt, except near the coast where an afternoon sea breeze is likely. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR with dry conditions. South winds 5 to 15 kts. High confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday . A chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Through tonight . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A couple of wind shifts possible but easterly directions will be prevailing and speeds mainly 10 kt or less. Scattered tstms are possible for most of this period with locally higher winds and seas possible in any tstms.

Outlook . Saturday-Saturday night . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds mainly NE at 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable overnight.

Monday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.

Tuesday into Wednesday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected with a slight chance of showers and storms.

Rip Currents . Onshore flow varying at times from southeast to northeast will continue today and Saturday. With seas forecast to be around 2-3 feet with a swell period of around 6-8 seconds, the rip current forecast for Friday and Saturday is expected to be low.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Franklin Township New Jersey (Station KZZ-31 ) is off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ060>062-070- 071-101>106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ009-010- 012>027. DE . Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ001>004. MD . Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008-012-015- 019-020. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Haines Near Term . Fitzsimmons Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Haines Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Haines Marine . Fitzsimmons/Haines Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 16 mi59 min N 8 77°F 1019 hPa71°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi59 min 71°F 69°F1019.2 hPa
44091 24 mi63 min 71°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi59 min SE 1 G 4.1 76°F 73°F1019.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi53 min Calm G 1 76°F 74°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi33 minENE 610.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1019.6 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ24 mi35 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F69°F82%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmSE3NE3CalmE3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE5N9NE7NE7E6NE76E7NE8E6E7E6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E5SE8SE9SE9SE5--SE5
2 days agoS6S4S5S6SW6SW7SW5W7W9W5S3SW3NW5W3W5W55W3SW4W7W12W7W7W5

Tide / Current Tables for Manahawkin Drawbridge, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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Manahawkin Drawbridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:36 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:08 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:01 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.41.310.80.50.20.100.20.60.91.11.31.21.10.80.60.40.20.20.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:21 PM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:43 PM EDT     2.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.3-0.7-1.5-2.2-2.5-2.2-1.3-0.11.11.81.81.30.5-0.3-1.1-1.6-2-1.9-1.101.122.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.