Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:48PM Friday February 28, 2020 12:12 PM EST (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 937 Am Est Fri Feb 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 937 Am Est Fri Feb 28 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will gradually build east towards our region through the end of the week. On Sunday, the high will shift off shore as a low crosses southern canada. This low will bring a front which is expected to stall just northwest of our region through mid week. A series of lows riding along the stalled front will keep unsettled conditions into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City , NJ
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location: 39.68, -74.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 281545 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1045 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will gradually build east towards our region through the end of the week. On Sunday, the high will shift offshore as a low crosses southern Canada. This low will bring a front which is expected to stall just northwest of the region through mid-week. A series of lows riding along the stalled front will keep unsettled conditions into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 10:30 am Update: No significant changes to note. Adjusted sky cover and winds a bit for most areas. High level clouds continue across SE PA, Delmarva and srn NJ with some daytime CU/SC also beginning to develop and expand. Sky cover will be partly to mostly (high clouds) thru the day.

A rather deep and largely occluded surface low to our north will continue to slowly drift northward through the day, not making much progress as mid/upper-level trough continues to amplify across the eastern U.S. A few weak vort maxima will cross the region through the evening, bringing scattered stratocumulus and maybe a flurry or two to the region. Otherwise, highs today won't make it too far reaching the upper 30s across the northern half of the forecast area and the low to mid 40s across the Philly Metro and points south.

A tight pressure gradient associated with the aformentioned surface low will lead to another day of brisk winds. Though less noticeable than yesterday, westerly winds will still gust to 25 mph, making it feel quite chilly today with apparent temperature values in the 20s and 30s through the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. A fairly quiet night tonight with winds continuing to slacken a bit. Can't rule out a widely scattered flurry or two, but a lull between shortwave impulses should keep things quiet. To our west, a more notable shortwave trough will cross the Great Lakes, enhancing the lake-effect snow game. This impulse will begin to cross our region Saturday morning, bringing at least some scattered stratocumulus to the region as it does so. Lows tonight will range from the low to upper 20s, with a few readings in the teens possible across the Pocono Plateau and the higher terrain of NW New Jersey.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Overview: We will have a few days of relatively quiet weather (through the weekend) as a high builds closer to our region. Starting Monday, our focus will be on a front which is expected to stall just northwest of our region. A series of low pressure systems lifting along the front could bring periods of precipitation to our region through Wednesday night when the front is expected to finally push south of our region.

Details:

Saturday and Sunday . The dominant feature through this period will be the high approaching and eventually shifting off shore on Sunday. Consequently, we should have tranquil and dry weather. The one possible exception is Saturday morning we could have another round of lake effect snow showers reach as far southeast as the southern Poconos and far Northwest NJ. It is a favorable fetch for lake effect snow showers, however by tomorrow, the boundary layer is expected to be very dry, so only have a slight chance (20%). Temperatures on Saturday could be the lowest day time temperatures this week, with highs mostly in the 30s. By Sunday, the continental polar airmass will begin to shift off shore, resulting in temperatures closer to normal with highs mostly in the 40s.

Monday and Tuesday . A low traversing southern Canada will bring a front close to the region, though the front should stall. Exactly where the front stalls is still a bit uncertain, but at this time, it looks like it will stall just northwest of our region. As a result, our region will likely be in the warm sector as the first two surface lows lift along the front. It doesn't look like this entire period will be a washout, but I am concerned by the lack of agreement or run to run consistency with the timing of these lows, so have kept a mention of precipitation through the entire period. As long as the front does in fact stall to our northwest, the precip should be mostly in the form of rain showers, with the possible exception of a brief period of frozen precip if it begins early enough on Monday morning northwest of the fall line.

Wednesday and Wednesday night . The final low is expected to lift along the front as it intensifies (associated with the approach of a mid and upper level short wave trough). As this low lifts further northeast, the front is expected to finally progress east of our region. Another round of precipitation is possible through this period. Depending on how strong the cold air advection is with this front, the precip could briefly change to snow before ending. However, it doesn't look like the temperature gradient across the front will be that large, so think it should once again be mostly rain.

Thursday . Chances for precipitation should decrease as the front progresses further away from our region. There is some question if the front will stall again just southeast of our region if the mid and upper level trough becomes negatively tilted. However, there isn't good agreement between the models on this scenario, so I have stayed close to a blend of guidance for temperatures and PoPs.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions expected. W to SW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts from 20 to 25 knots. Winds will trend more Wrly by late afternoon.

Friday night . VFR with west winds from 5 to 10 knots and gusts from 15 to 20 knots.

Outlook .

Saturday and Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds 10 to 20 kt on Saturday becoming westerly 5 to 15 kt on Sunday. Moderate Confidence.

Monday through Tuesday . Beginning Monday afternoon, there is a chance for periods of MVFR or even IFR conditions as rain moves into the region. Moderate confidence that all TAF sites will see rain, but low confidence if this will translate to a prolonged period of MVFR/IFR conditions.

MARINE. A SCA remain in effect for the ocean and DE Bay waters today. Wind gusts around 25 knots are expected. Seas on the ocean will be 3 to 5 ft today but will decrease tonight. We may have to extend the SCA for the ocean into the evening, but the winds across the DE Bay will probably be below SCA by 23Z. Fair weather is expected today and tonight.

Outlook .

Saturday . Northwesterly winds gusting above 25 kt are possible beginning Saturday morning on all waters.

Sunday . Once wind gusts drop below 25 kt early Sunday morning, winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria through Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday . Seas will begin building in response to a shift to southerly winds. SCA conditions will be possible primarily for the Atlantic coastal waters.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431-450>455.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Davis/PO Short Term . Davis Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Davis/Johnson/PO Marine . Davis/Johnson/PO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi102 min SW 13 42°F 1014 hPa20°F
44091 22 mi42 min 44°F4 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 26 mi54 min 40°F 42°F1013 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi54 min W 18 G 23 37°F 43°F1011.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi96 min W 17 G 22 36°F 42°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi4.3 hrsSW 910.00 miFair30°F18°F61%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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2 days ago--S5CalmCalmE3SE3E4SE5E4NE5NE6NE6NE6NE7NE5E4NW3NE4N4N4NE6NE5N3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for North Beach, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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North Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:49 PM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:54 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8110.90.70.50.30.20.10.10.20.50.70.90.90.90.70.60.30.20.10.10.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:51 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:50 AM EST     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:10 AM EST     1.88 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:00 PM EST     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:40 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:25 PM EST     2.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.9-2-1.6-0.60.51.41.91.60.90.1-0.8-1.5-1.8-2-1.7-0.80.41.421.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.