Harvey Cedars, NJ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harvey Cedars, NJ

April 28, 2024 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM
Moonrise 12:04 AM   Moonset 8:48 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 102 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024

This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds.

Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds.

Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 12 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds.

Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 12 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds.

Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.

Thu night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ400 102 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024

Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harvey Cedars , NJ
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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 281729 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 129 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm front moves through today into tonight. Unseasonable warm temperatures expected Monday. Backdoor frontal boundary stalls over the region Monday night and Tuesday. Weak cold front crosses through Tuesday night. Unsettled conditions could remain for Wednesday before weak high pressure builds in for Thursday.
Cold front could approach from the west Friday and pass through during the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Chances for some scattered thunderstorms have increased slightly north of Philly for later this afternoon and especially during the evening. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast. Previous discussion follows:

Broad high pressure continues to sit to the south over the Atlantic waters east of the Outer Banks. With low pressure sitting off the Gaspe Peninsula, flow over the Mid Atlantic will generally be light with a west to southwest component due to a weak pressure gradient. This will in turn continue to lift a warm front through the region today with much of PA/NJ/DelMarVA sitting in the warm sector. With the region in the warm sector, temperatures this afternoon will push into the low to mid 80s.
With drier air moving in aloft, expect clouds to eventually scatter out enabling strong PBL mixing briefly this afternoon.
With a well mixed BL we could see some briefly breezy continues for an hour or two just before sunset this evening. The contrast in surface temps between the land and marine zones should fire up a sea breeze circulation, however as the previous shift mentioned, the sea breeze boundary will struggle to push inland owing to the westerly winds. Offshore it should push slightly further so there will likely be a brief chop on the ocean waters just offshore.

While humidity won't be high, dewpoints creeping into the upper 50s will be ample enough to develop around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Late in the afternoon, a shortwave will rotate over the upper level ridge and should spark some shower activity. EL's should be sufficiently high enough for charge separation so a few of those storms could produce lightning. While I don't currently anticipate severe weather, I can't rule out the potential for a storm to produce wind gusts in excess of 50kts. With MUCAPE of 500 J/kg, effective shear 35-40kts, and curved hodographs in BUFKit soundings, this points to the small potential for some isolated wind damage. Both the SPC calibrated SVR progs, and the NCAR NN Convective Hazard forecast show low changes (<10 percent) but certainly none zero.

Heading into the overnight hours, the loss of diurnal heating will quickly lead to any storms weakening however temps will still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal overnight. Even strong radiational cooling shouldn't be enough to see temps drop much colder than the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The main story of the short term will be the strengthening ridge across the East Coast and the warm temperatures that come with it. 500 hPa heights look to increase to near 580 dam by Monday, values more typical of summertime. At the surface, high pressure will be centered offshore of the Carolinas, helping to advect warmer and more moist air into the region. The result will be much above normal temperatures. A backdoor frontal boundary will sink southwestward into the area from New England Monday night, stalling out across the central part of the forecast area by Tuesday.

Monday will be the warmest day of the stretch with high temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 80s in most interior locations under partly cloudy skies. Highs in the more urbanized areas could top out closer to 90 degrees, though readings of 90 degrees or higher appear unlikely at this time. The northwest flow will add a downsloping component to the winds and thus also help to boost temperatures locally near the urban corridor. The offshore wind will also allow for a notable warmup even along the immediate coast, with highs getting to the low to mid 70s before the sea breeze kicks in.

As the gradient flow weakens and shifts eventually to the southwest then south, the sea breeze will likely make significant inland progress into the I-95 corridor and perhaps even farther inland from there during the evening. This will cool temperatures off into the 70s and 60s by late evening.
Dewpoints will be near 60 degrees, so the Heat Index won't be much different than the air temperature on Monday. No heat headlines are anticipated. Lows Monday night will also be quite mild once again in the mid 50s to low 60s. The backdoor frontal boundary will sink into northern and central New Jersey overnight with increasing cloud cover.

For Tuesday, the frontal boundary will stall out along a line from near Ocean County northwest into the Lehigh Valley.
Southwest of the boundary, temperatures should warm well into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon under partly cloudy skies.
Northeast of the boundary, temperatures will likely top out in the 70s away from the coast under mostly cloudy skies. The upper ridge will deamplify as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This wave will be weakening a good bit, so forcing won't be overly impressive. However, we should have a fair amount of diurnally driven instability though, generally in the 500-1000 J/kg neighborhood southwest of the boundary. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop into the afternoon and evening. Shear isn't bad, around 30-35 kts...will keep an eye on the forecast as it develops. Have kept PoPs near 30-50%, greatest toward the northwest where forcing will be a bit stronger.

A weak cold front associated with the trough will pass through the area Tuesday night, bringing an end to the convective activity. This will also signal a return to more temperate conditions for the remainder of the week, although temperatures likely remain several degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Generally unsettled and uncertain, but not overly impactful long term looks to be on the horizon. The ensembles suggest another upper- level ridge axis will build over the eastern CONUS while moving eastwards with time Wednesday through Saturday. The overall upper- level pattern looks to become more slow moving Wednesday onwards. Shortwave energy hanging around or moving through could be in the cards, potentially supporting some weak convective activity and varying cloud cover during the term.

At least for this forecast cycle, weak surface frontal boundaries look to hang around Wednesday with surface high pressure building in Wednesday night into Friday. Forecast confidence in surface high pressure muting any shower development from shortwave energy is very low this far out though. End of the week cold front looks to be slower than previous model runs had it. Cold front now looks to approach Friday/Saturday and move through later Saturday or Saturday night.

Stuck with NBM PoPS for this forecast. Slight chance or chance of showers for Wednesday. No PoP included Wednesday night through Friday morning. Greater chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday night time frame thanks to another set of fronts approaching then passing through. Cold front looks to cross through Saturday night.

Above average temperatures likely Wednesday through the end of the term.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR conditions with scattered clouds. Winds mainly from the southwest near 5-10 kts. Some scattered SHRA/TSRA possible at ABE/TTN after 21Z. Included VCSH to highlight this for now, although cannot rule out some thunder possible through 03Z or so. High confidence on prevailing conditions.

Tonight...VFR with some scattered clouds possible. Winds mainly 5 kts or less favoring a southwest direction initially, then shifting northwest overnight. Some isolated SHRA/TSRA possible through 03-06Z at ABE/TTN. High confidence in prevailing conditions.

Monday...VFR conditions with scattered clouds. Winds initially from the northwest near 5-10 kts will shift to to southwest or even south after 18Z. A 10-20% chance of an isolated shower.
High confidence in prevailing conditions.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR with winds 5 kts or less, although some MVFR ceilings could develop late. No significant weather expected.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR with winds 5-10 kts.
Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible starting later Tuesday.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR possible with showers. Winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with winds 5-10 kts. No significant weather expected.

MARINE
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. South to southwest winds through this evening near 10-15 kts will shift briefly toward the northwest early Monday morning due to a land breeze. Winds shift back to the south by late morning. Seas 2-3 feet. A 20-30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm tonight north of Atlantic City.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...No wind or seas headlines anticipated. Scattered showers/tstms possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Given the setup of a warm airmass over cooler water temps a marine dense fog advisory may be needed Monday.

CLIMATE
Near record breaking high temperatures are forecast on Monday.
Records for our climate sites are listed below:

Record High Temperatures Jan 25 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1974 AC Airport (ACY) 92/1974 AC Marina (55N) 88/2017 Georgetown (GED) 91/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1974 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/1974 Reading (RDG) 91/1888 Trenton (TTN) 88/1974 Wilmington (ILG) 91/1974

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 20 mi35 min SSW 2.9 79°F 30.1260°F
44091 21 mi39 min 52°F3 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 28 mi47 min 55°F 53°F30.07
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi47 min SSW 5.1G8 70°F 58°F30.12
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi89 min WSW 7G8 66°F 57°F30.12


Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMJX OCEAN COUNTY,NJ 18 sm9 minW 0710 smClear79°F57°F48%30.10
Link to 5 minute data for KMJX


Wind History from MJX
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for North Beach, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
   
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North Beach
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Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:58 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:48 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:34 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

North Beach, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
1.1
2
am
1.1
3
am
1.1
4
am
1
5
am
0.8
6
am
0.6
7
am
0.4
8
am
0.2
9
am
0.1
10
am
0.1
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.4
8
pm
0.3
9
pm
0.2
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
0.3



Tide / Current for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     -2.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:09 AM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:53 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     2.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots
12
am
1.7
1
am
0.6
2
am
-0.5
3
am
-1.3
4
am
-1.9
5
am
-2.3
6
am
-2.4
7
am
-2
8
am
-0.9
9
am
0.3
10
am
1.3
11
am
1.8
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
-0
3
pm
-0.8
4
pm
-1.3
5
pm
-1.6
6
pm
-1.7
7
pm
-1.4
8
pm
-0.5
9
pm
0.8
10
pm
1.9
11
pm
2.4




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Philadelphia, PA,



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