Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harvey Cedars, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:59PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 8:58 PM EDT (00:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 702 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak area of high pressure will move further offshore today, while a cold front approaches our area tonight into Wednesday. This front is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. SEveral generally weak areas of low pressure will develop and track along this front through the weekend, as high pressure builds towards our north.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harvey Cedars , NJ
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location: 39.7, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 112312 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 712 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of high pressure will move further offshore today, while a cold front approaches our area tonight into Wednesday. This front is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. Several generally weak areas of low pressure will develop and track along this front through the weekend, as high pressure builds towards our north.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The showers have largely dissipated early this evening and we should be mostly dry through the next several hours until the cold front starts to arrive.

For tonight, will have to watch upstream convection moving in from the west in association with an approaching weak cold front. While this activity should weaken after sunset, a shower or isolated thunderstorm will be possible in the northern and western zones especially between around 10PM and 2AM.

Otherwise, we once again face a circumstance of light winds and plentiful low level moisture, so fog formation will again be a concern. For tonight, higher level cloud cover will be increasing from the west with time as the upstream front and convection continue to approach. This lowers confidence on the extent of fog formation overnight. Have added patchy fog into the grids for most areas but expect fog to be less widespread than the past couple of nights. A warm and muggy night is expected with lows in the low 70s, and mid 70s in the Philly metro area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. The approaching cold front makes it into our area then stalls on Wednesday. Moisture will pool near the boundary with PWATs rising to at least 2 inches over the southern half of the area, probably a little higher. Surface dew points will remain in the low to mid 70s through the day as we fail to mix out in the vicinity of the boundary. High temperatures are a bit of a question mark due to uncertainty in how soon afternoon convection will initiate, but with a very warm air mass still in place upper 80s should be common, with some areas hitting 90. MLCAPE values should rise to around 2500J/kg, a little higher if we heat up more. So plenty of instability with little inhibition. Shear on Wednesday is basically non-existent. In fact, 0-6km bulk shear will be mostly less than 10 kt. So storm motions will be very slow and guided more by cell mergers and interactions as opposed to synoptic flow.

With the high instability, a few strong storms are possible and definitely cannot rule out a severe downburst or two in the taller cores. However, main concern on Wednesday will be hydro. The combination of all of the above, along with continued antecedent wet conditions, is favorable for flash flooding. Training and backbuilding storms are certainly possible as well given the wind profiles and deep layer of moisture. Am concerned that the best signal for heavy rainfall appears to be near the urban corridor or possibly over southeast Pennsylvania. The urban corridor of course is naturally prone to flash flooding, and southeast PA continues to have the lowest FFG in our region thanks to multiple recent heavy rain events. So if storms due focus themselves in those areas, will likely be a busy day on the hydro side of things.

Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area from late Wednesday morning through the evening. Am not confident enough yet to extend it any further than it currently is. May end up needing to expand it another tier of counties northwestward if the front does not make it as far southeast as some guidance suggests. But the general takeaway is that an active day of weather is likely with scattered to widespread thunderstorms likely to produce areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Summary: In general, there are no big changes to the extended forecast. It looks to be a largely unsettled period with pretty much daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Humidity rises through the end of the week before we see a slight cooling take place over the weekend and into next week.

Synoptic Overview .

The start of the long term will feature a a pair of H5 ridges centered over the SW and SE US, while to the north of these features a generally zonal flow will prevail, interrupted by occasional intrusions of northern branch shortwave troughs and ridges. For our area the most impactful shortwave is currently centered over OK/KS, and this wave will slowly progress eastward over the next few days with numerous vort maxes ejecting eastward from it towards the end of this week. A temporary pattern change looks likely by the start of next week as the SW US ridge amplifies, resulting in downstream amplification of broad troughing over eastern North America.

At the surface the main story for the start of the extended continues to be a cold front which stalls and washes out in our general vicinity through much of the week. Various waves of low pressure will form along the front likely inducing some latitudinal oscillation of the boundary through the week. A rather amplified shortwave ridge to our north will foster somewhat impressive (at least by August standards) anticyclogenesis over eastern Canada late this week, and this high will gradually progress eastward into the Canadian maritimes by this weekend. E-NE flow on the southern periphery of this high may be enough to push the diffuse boundary south of our area by the weekend which may result in a reprieve from the generally unsettled weather as early as perhaps Saturday (but possibly later).

Dailies .

Thursday-Friday . The boundary remains in our general vicinity through Friday so anticipate that we will continue to have unsettled weather across the forecast area. The guidance remains very wet through this period with model soundings showing a several hour period of 2.0-2.3" PWATs on Thursday and Friday. This is cause for concern as antecedent conditions are wet and FFG values are fairly low in many parts of the region. We will definitely need to monitor this as it gets closer. By Friday temperatures should decrease notably (likely maxing out in the low-mid 80s) as onshore flow takes over (due to both the Canadian High and perhaps a frontal low to our south).

Saturday-Tuesday . The GFS/EC both depict a stronger frontal low taking shape to our south this weekend, and this low combined with NE flow associated with the Canadian High may be enough to push the remnant boundary away from our area. Still retained Chc PoPs for this time period as guidance often does a poor job positioning these fronts/frontal lows in the medium range but confidence is increasing that at least by Sunday/Monday we should see some drying. Continued onshore flow and likely some continued cloud cover should keep temps in check with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. The flow turns more to the northwest/west for Tuesday and some slight warming will start to take place.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Initially, VFR. Fog development is possible once again after 06z. However, coverage should be less than the previous night. Have included a period of MVFR vsbys for most of the TAF sites. Southerly wind around 5 to 10 kt will become light and variable or calm. Moderate confidence overall.

Wednesday . Prevailing VFR with patchy fog dissipating by 14z. A better chance for tstms at most of the TAF sites on Wednesday, mainly after 18z. Sub-VFR conditions in any tstms. Winds mainly S to SW at 5 to 10 kt, but becoming SE near the coast. Winds may also be light and variable at times, and tstms may contain locally gusty winds. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Thursday and Friday . Generally VFR with periods of sub-VFR due to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. South to southeast winds mostly 10 knots or less becoming east to northeast on Friday. High confidence with lower confidence on timing and intensity of storms that do develop.

Saturday and Sunday . Generally VFR with continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. East to northeast winds around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Through Wednesday . Sub-SCA conditions are expected with seas 2 to 3 ft and winds mainly from the S or SW with speeds 10 to 15 kt. Patchy fog is possible overnight.

Outlook .

Wednesday night through Thursday . Winds and seas should mainly stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Thunderstorms are possible, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Friday through Sunday . An increasing onshore flow and building seas later Friday may require a SCA by Friday evening and continuing through Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents .

The low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue through tomorrow. Southerly and southeasterly winds around 10 MPH are expected. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for PAZ070-071-101>106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NJZ009-015>019-021. DE . Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for DEZ001>003. MD . Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr/Meola Near Term . Meola/O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Carr/Meola Aviation . Carr/Meola/O'Brien Marine . Carr/Meola/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 20 mi89 min ENE 9.9 82°F 1015 hPa75°F
44091 21 mi33 min 73°F2 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 28 mi59 min 76°F 71°F1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi59 min 82°F 79°F1013.7 hPa (-0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi83 min SSW 5.1 G 7 85°F 77°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ17 mi63 minS 910.00 miFair79°F73°F85%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----SW5SW5SW3SW4CalmSW3SW3CalmS3S4S63S6S84S8NE3N4S13S12S7S9
1 day agoS6S6S6SW4SW5SW5SW3SW4SW4SW5SW5SW6W6W44CalmW5SW8S7S10S7S8S11--
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W7SW44SW4SW6SE8S10S10S8S8S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for North Beach, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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North Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:46 AM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:47 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.60.80.90.90.90.70.60.40.30.20.20.30.50.70.9110.90.70.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:49 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:15 PM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.51.20.5-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.3-0.40.61.31.81.610.2-0.4-1-1.4-1.6-1.7-1.2-0.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.