Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harvey Cedars, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
The cold front is slowly starting to move across the region ushering both chillier temperatures and drier air. The rainfall from overnight will taper away quickly with daybreak. The deep upper level trough over the Ohio Valley region will progress towards the region delivering a shot of modified, arctic air. With cold air advection increasing under cyclonic flow, this should support a pretty hefty strato-cumulus cloud deck, resulting in mostly cloudy to at times overcast skies.

With the cloudy skies, incoming solar radiation will be muted so temps will be seasonably cool in the 40s to low 50s. Winds post frontal should be fairly brisk as the pressure gradient remains fairly strong. Expect winds will start picking up towards mid afternoon, with gusts of 20-30mph developing across the region.

Heading into the overnight hours, the gusts will weaken as high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast starts building into the Mid Altantic. Modest westerly flow develops across the region and this leads to a rather raw day Tuesday with highs peaking in the low to mid 40s and combined with the 10-15mph winds, wind chill values start out in the teens early Tuesday morning only getting to the low 30s mid afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The Mid- Atlantic region will be situated between strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and strong high pressure over the Southeastern US. This results in a tight pressure gradient over the area that will linger through Wednesday High pressure will keep the region mostly dry through Wednesday. A weak cold front will then move through late Wednesday, though it looks to remain rather moisture-starved.

With an upper level trough moving out of the region Tuesday night, our cold airmass will moderate aloft. This along with winds shifting more southwesterly at the surface, low temperatures for Tuesday night will not be as cold compared to the night before with upper 20s to mid 30s.

A modest warming trend continues into Wednesday thanks to SW to WSW winds staying elevated and helping bring a slightly warmer airmass into the region. Afternoon highs will warm back up into the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. A weak cold front moves through late Wednesday with little moisture and only a minor change to temperatures.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure across the Southeast US will gradually gain a stronger hold over the Mid Atlantic late week and into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions with cool temperatures a few degrees below climo. Our next storm system will begin to approach the region Sunday afternoon/night as an amplified upper level trough pushes through the central US.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...Generally VFR conditions will prevail. Brief MVFR ceilings may develop just after day break. Light winds generally out of the west. Moderate confidence.

Today.. MVFR ceilings possible in the morning, lifting to VFR late in the morning. W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts after 18Z. Moderate confidence.

Monday night...VFR. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts 25-35 knots during the day, diminishing some at night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 knots.

Friday...VFR. Winds diminishing to 10-15 knots, becoming less than 10 kts at night.

MARINE
Southerly winds around 10-15 kt will quickly transition to a west- northwest wind in wake of a cold frontal passage. Seas of 3-4 feet.
Dense marine fog possible depending on winds.

Today, sensible weather will be quiet with west-northwest winds increasing to around 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible during the afternoon. Seas of 3-5 feet.

Tonight...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Northwest winds increasing to 20-30 kts and seas building to 3-5 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Westerly winds increasing to 25-35 kts with gusts up to 40 kts possible. Seas 4-7 feet. Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Winds gradually diminish overnight, decreasing below Gale criteria, though gusts will still be around 25-30 kts.

Wednesday and Thursday...SCA conditions possible. West winds gusting around 25 kts. Seas 4 to 7 feet Wednesday diminish to 3 to 5 feet Thursday.

Friday...SCA conditions possible. WNW winds gusting to around 20 kts.



PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for ANZ450>455.