Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deer Trail, CO

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:03PM Friday September 18, 2020 5:58 PM MDT (23:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 8:09PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deer Trail, CO
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Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 182055 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 255 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Smoke has been heavier than expected across the northeastern plains today resulting in cooler temperatures than forecast. Conditions will remain dry this afternoon through tonight due to slight subsidence and dry air across the region. Lows tonight will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal with slightly stronger than usual drainage flow expected.

Our focus then shifts to the trough that is currently moving over Oregon and California with a couple warm conveyor belts out ahead of it. This trough will move mainly to the north of Colorado but mid to upper level flow will increase from the southwest over Colorado during the day Saturday. The hope is that this southwesterly flow will be enough to move the majority of the smoke out of our forecast area tomorrow improving visibilities and air quality. Strong lapse rates will develop over the higher terrain during the afternoon as the trough approaches. This may lead to a few isolated showers but these should produce very little in the way of rainfall at the surface. Any showers that do develop may produce brief gusty winds up to 35 mph due to inverted-V soundings that reach close to 500 mb. Considering minimum relative humidities will drop to the teens across much of our forecast area, the gusty winds from these showers may create brief periods of elevated fire danger. However, this threat does not persist for long enough to warrant any fire weather highlights.

The only other forecast concern of note is whether Denver will reach 90 degrees. The reduced smoke and downslope flow may warm conditions just enough to reach 90. However, there may be cloud cover that could limit the high temperature a degree or two. With the majority of guidance showing 89 or 90 degrees for the high, I kept the previous forecast of 90 for Denver. If we were to hit 90, this would break the record for most 90 degree days in Denver history at 74.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 152 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Forecast period will start off with a slight chance of mountain convection early Saturday night which will quickly taper off. Shortwave trough to our north will race off to the northeast by Sunday morning, leaving the area in more zonal, west/southwesterly flow for much of Sunday. Daytime temps Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than Saturday, though highs in the mid 80s will still be common across the plains. There may be just enough moisture across the higher elevations to see an isolated shower or storm develop, but otherwise quiet conditions expected to wrap up the weekend. With flow out of the WSW, it appears most of the smoke plume would remain to our north as well.

Zonal flow won't last long as the upper level ridge begins building back early next week. Slightly better subtropical moisture feed will provide some chances for storms Monday and Tuesday, with most of this activity contained to the mountains. There is a sliver of hope for Tuesday, when a subtle/weak shortwave could encourage a shower or two attempt the trek off the higher terrain and into the I-25 corridor. Even if that does happen, any precipitation amounts would be very light.

Temperatures may briefly cool to near 80 or perhaps the upper 70s across the plains Wednesday, but the ridge will quickly build back in Thursday and Friday with hotter/drier weather expected once again. Still some hints from guidance that next Friday could be quite warm. The GFS/ECM both have 700mb temps near 17C by Friday afternoon, with the GEM only a degree or so colder. If smoke doesn't limit heating potential (as we've seen over the past several days) . this may be our final shot at near record . >90 degree . heat over the plains. Either way, the bottom line is that warm and dry conditions will continue over the next several days.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Smoke has been more persistent than expected this afternoon with the visibility going back and forth between 5 and 6 miles at DEN. I expect visibilities across all terminals to remain the same or increase this afternoon and evening. There is better confidence that visibilities will stay above 6 miles later tonight and tomorrow as southwest flow decreases the smoke. Otherwise, winds will be generally light through midday tomorrow. There may be some elevated showers that near the terminals during the late afternoon tomorrow with sporadic wind gusts up to 25 knots being the only impact.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SHORT TERM . Danielson LONG TERM . Hiris AVIATION . Danielson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KFTG

Wind History from FTG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E6E6E7SE4S8S11S10S10S9S6SW5W4W3NW3CalmW4--SW6CalmNE4NE4CalmCalm
1 day ago--NE3E5NE4SE6SE6S6S8------------------SW6--SW6SW6S4SE3--
2 days agoN7NE7----N3CalmW5W6SW5SW7S6------------S5SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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