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FXUS65 KBOU 071154 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 454 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry conditions continue today.

- High winds up to 80 mph will occur over the Front Range Mountains and Foothills today.

- The next system will bring snow and colder temperatures for the mountains and plains for Friday and Friday night.

- Higher snow amounts confined to the southern foothills, Palmer Divide, and west slope mountain ranges.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

As the thermal ridge exits, most of northeastern Colorado will experience another above normal day. Majority of the plains and parts of the foothills will climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Additional mid-level moisture increases for the mountains which will likely bring increasing cloud cover for the higher terrain. Cross sections indicate strong stable layer aloft and tighten pressure gradients resulting in strong westerly flow across the mountains and foothills. Thus, the High Wind Warning will continue for these areas until 5 PM MDT this evening. It is likely these downslope winds will spread into parts of the urban corridor and plains producing wind gusts between 20-30 mph periodically this afternoon. These conditions may lead to spotty near critical fire weather conditions across the plains as humidities drop near the mid to upper teens. Considering these periods of gusty winds will be short-lived, no red flag highlights were issued but will continue to monitor if gusts become persistent than expected.

Meanwhile late afternoon into this evening, winter returns to the western slopes as the next upper level trough approaches. Orographic flow will assist in developing light to moderate snow tonight into Friday morning for parts of the western slopes. Although winds decrease in speed overnight, patchy blowing snow conditions are possible along mountain passes.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

A broad and somewhat disorganized upper level trough will be over Colorado Friday and Friday night. Appears there are two short waves with in this trough. The first one moves across Friday morning, which will bring areas of snow to the plains for Friday.
Snow will become light and also end in places late Friday morning and Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be near to slightly above freezing Friday across the lower elevation. We could end up with a little accumulation on the roads during the morning hours, but most roads across the lower elevations should be wet until late Friday afternoon due decreasing snow and above freezing temperatures. The second wave affects the area beginning late Friday afternoon through Friday night. This wave ends up digging southeast into New Mexico and produces a northerly flow across eastern Colorado. At the surface, a surge of northerly winds occur early in the evening. This will put the best chance for heavier snow Friday night over the southern foothills and Palmer Divide.
Models are still bouncing around showing where the heaviest snow will occur, and thus confidence is on the low reside regarding snowfall amounts.

On Saturday, north-northwest flow aloft will prevail behind the exiting system. Gusty northerly winds are expected across the eastern plains with gusts to 45 mph. The northerly flow will keep temperatures cool with highs mainly in the 30s over northeast Colorado. Light snow likely lingers in the mountains, at least during the morning hours. Any accumulations should be light and less than 2 inches.

Northwest flow aloft prevails for Sunday and Monday. Models not showing a wave during this period, but run-to-tun consistency has been lacking, so will keep lower PoPs in the mountains.
Temperatures will be near normal under this pattern with highs in the 40s over northeast Colorado. The forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday is still highly uncertain. Most models are showing a moisture starved closed low over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. If this ends up being the case, we would expected near normal temperatures with little to no precipitation.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 435 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period but low visibilities near MVFR conditions are possible due to incoming snow showers. This TAF issuance includes PROB30 near 15Z for potential snow showers arriving near KDEN.

This morning, strong winds will develop across the mountains bringing downslope winds to the terminals near 18-19Z. Westerly winds will likely lead to a period of wind gusts up 25-30kts across all sites until 01-02Z. Drainage winds are unlikely as the next system approaches while decreasing cloud decks near 10-15k between SCT to BKN.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ031.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ033>036.

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