Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hannibal, MO

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:58PM Monday August 19, 2019 9:40 AM CDT (14:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:19PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hannibal, MO
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location: 39.71, -91.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 191133
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
633 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Short term (through Tuesday)
issued at 356 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
a weak cold front over iowa is moving slowly south this
morning... And may get as far as northeast missouri and west central
illinois before stalling later today. There probably won't be much
of a change in the sensible weather as the front moves south, other
than a slow wind shift to the north or northwest and perhaps a
slight drop in dew point temperature. Forecast soundings show quite
a bit of instability building up today with a warm and moist
boundary layer and 2m dew point temperatures in the mid 70s across
much of the forecast area. The forecast dew point temperatures may
be a little high as most current observations are in the upper 60s
to low 70s... And yesterday afternoon's dew points were mainly in the
low 70s as well. Additionally, forecast soundings are showing an
inversion around 750mb across central, northeast and east central
missouri as well as west central and parts of southwest illinois
this afternoon. This inversion should keep a lid on convection
today across much of the area... If the model soundings are correct.

The inversion weakens the further south and southeast in missouri
and illinois that you look, so I think that chance pops from
southeast missouri and south central illinois fading to slight
chance to the northwest remains a reasonable forecast today. The
current forecast has afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s in
northeast missouri to the low 90s in southeast missouri and
southwest illinois. The latest MOS guidance is a little warmer in
northeast missouri and west central illinois so I think i'll tweak
up there, but the the low 90s still look good further south.

Attention turns to tonight and Tuesday. Any convection over the
area this afternoon should dissipate during the early evening with
the loss of diurnal heating. Short range guidance shows the low
level jet re-focusing over eastern nebraska or western iowa
overnight. Strong moisture convergence along with a shortwave
moving into the midwest on northwest flow aloft ignite nocturnal
convection. There is some disagreement in the guidance on exactly
where and when the storms will fire, but both the GFS and NAM have
4000+ j kg MUCAPE over eastern nebraska and western illinois around
06z. 30-40kts of 0-3km and 0-6km shear along with the strong
instability will promote a well-organized mcs. Models show a strong
cold pool developing after 06z as the storms get organized, and
forward propagating corfidi vectors are pointing to the southeast
which would bring the MCS down into southern iowa northern missouri
between 09-12z. The gfs, and the convection allowing models
including the hrrr, NAM 4km, and arw nmm WRF are in pretty
remarkable agreement on this scenario. These models all push the
slowly decaying MCS southeast through our forecast area Tuesday
morning into the early afternoon. The operational NAM is an outlier
with the MCS moving east-southeast through iowa into illinois and
then just clipping eastern missouri as it turns more southeastward
during the day. Am leaning toward the model consensus for Tuesday
as the more eastward solution of the NAM is not supported by the
corfidi vectors.

An MCS moving through the area on Tuesday could put
the kibosh on the excessive heat potential for Tuesday afternoon
depending on how fast it moves and how much convective debris it
leaves behind. Will decrease temperatures slightly from previous
forecast... Which may just barely keep heat index values below
advisory criteria. Will therefore hold off issuing any heat
advisory this morning for Tuesday due to the uncertainty.

Carney

Long term (Wednesday through next Sunday)
issued at 356 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
medium range guidance shows the upper level pattern slowly
amplifying for Wednesday through Friday. An upper level low digs in
and deepens over southeast canada Wednesday which forces a surface
cold front through the mid mississippi valley. Models are hinting
at another MCS ahead of the front on Wednesday, and then more
convection Wednesday night into Thursday as the front continues
drifting south through missouri and illinois. The ECMWF is more
aggressive in moving the front into the lower mississippi valley and
eastern great plains, while the GFS hangs the front up over southern
and western missouri. The GFS is therefore much wetter than the
ecmwf as dry air from the high pressure system behind the front
doesn't drive as far west southwest into the area. Given the
uncertainty I kept an ensemble blend of chance slight chance pops in
the forecast through the weekend. Temperatures should be more
moderate on the "cool" side of the front though with highs mainly in
the low to mid 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.

Carney

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 601 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
patchy fog is being reported across parts of the area this
morning, primarily over northeast missouri and west central
illinois. Satellite imagery is also hinting that there could be
some fog over the eastern ozarks... But there aren't many
observations down there to confirm. Fog should dissipate this
morning leavingVFR flight conditions for most of the day.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area which could briefly reduce visibility and produce
gusty wind to 30-40kts. Storms should dissipate quickly after
sunset.VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the evening
with some patchy fog developing after 06z.

Specifics for kstl:
vfr flight conditions are expected to prevail at lambert through
tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the
vicinity of the airport this afternoon. If a storm happens to
directly impact the terminal there could be some gusty winds to
30-40kts and reduced visibility. Storms should dissipate after
sunset. Some guidance is showing that a line of thunderstorms will
move into the stl metro area from the northwest between 14-16z
Tuesday morning. Confidence isn't high enough at this point to
mention more than showers in the taf.Carney

Preliminary point temps pops
Saint louis 93 76 93 77 30 20 40 20
quincy 89 73 89 74 20 10 50 30
columbia 91 73 92 72 20 5 50 30
jefferson city 93 73 93 72 20 10 40 20
salem 91 72 90 74 40 20 50 20
farmington 93 72 93 72 40 20 50 10

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL18 mi47 minS 510.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUIN

Wind History from UIN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN155S6S9S13S9S7S7S6SW4CalmSE3SE5S3S3CalmS4CalmSE5E4S5CalmS3S5
1 day agoS94SE4SE6SE7SE6S8S9S8S7CalmSE4SE5S7S8S7S8S10
G17
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2 days agoW8W10W10NW9S7W8SW9W6SW10S5S8S6S5S4S3CalmE4CalmS5S11W10
G36
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.