Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hannibal, MO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:09PM Friday September 18, 2020 6:50 PM CDT (23:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 7:18PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hannibal, MO
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location: 39.71, -91.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 181900 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Early this afternoon, an upper longwave RIDGE was situated over western North America with a longwave TROF over eastern North America. The result over our region was northwest flow aloft. There was only one upper level disturbance of any note within this flow-- over southern Manitoba province. A much stronger storm system was coming onshore the northwestern CONUS. Tropical Depression 22 was located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to be named Beta soon, with the names of Wilfred and Alpha having been handed out to other storms earlier today. At the surface, a 1030mb area of high pressure dominated the Midwest, centered over northern Wisconsin, with northeast winds into our region. A diurnal cumulus cloud field has developed over portions of northeastern Missouri, northwestern Illinois, and eastern Iowa, otherwise, skies were clear of water vapor/ice crystal clouds. A thinning layer of smoke from the wildfires in California and Oregon continued to hover many thousands of feet overhead. Temperatures were only in the lower 70s, or about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper longwave RIDGE is expected to translate east to central North America this period, while the eastern North America TROF will stay put. This will first amplify flow more from the N over our region before the upper RIDGE settles overhead by late Friday night. The amplification will encourage the southern Manitoba disturbance to track through IL and eastern MO on Saturday, but it will encounter a bone dry column (PWs of only a half inch), and will struggle to produce any clouds let alone threaten any rainfall. In fact, the very dry column should maintain clear skies for much of this period, other than some minor obscuration from time to time of the smoke layer aloft.

The center of surface high pressure will translate eastward through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and into the Saint Lawrence Seaway on Saturday night. However, influence from this high pressure will be maintained well, all the way southwest into our region throughout this period, with easterly flow continuing.

The surface high pressure axis will be to the northwest of the STL metro area late tonight and overhead the STL metro area late Saturday night and should promote two very cool nights across the area with light winds and clear skies. Many areas should see min temps in the lower 40s, with the urban STL metro heat island staying more in the 45-50 range, while a few select valley areas may dip into the upper 30s.

Max temps on Saturday should be the coolest of the next 7 days, with readings peaking in the upper 60s to around 70, which our local conditional climatology charts backup well with an anticipated 25- 30F diurnal swing.

TES

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

The GEFS and ENS ensemble means for H500 show the upper longwave RIDGE over the central CONUS standing firm through about Tuesday of next week before a retrogression westward of the RIDGE axis occurs. At the surface, the GEFS and ENS means advertise a persistent area of high pressure over the eastern CONUS, with ridging extending into Texas.

The anticipated dominance of the RIDGE in our region should be effective at deflecting any disturbances and storm systems away. Indeed, the GEFS and ENS show the strong storm system over the Pacific Northwest tracking well to the north into southern Canada during this time. The surface ridging that is also anticipated will lock any low level moisture return well to our south. No disturbances and no low level moisture return should equate to a dry column, and thus near zero precipitation chances.

Retrogression of the RIDGE axis westward looks to occur on Wednesday, shifting flow aloft from the NW heading into late next week. This looks to open the door to a cold front dropping down late next week and the ability to keep the moisture from what should be Beta well to our south looks a little more in doubt. A lot of questions on precipitation chances for the Thursday-Friday time frame remain, ranging from a dry frontal passage to something more wet. A shift towards CLIMO PoPs (16-19%) seems prudent as we head later into next week from the dry forecast preceding.

A slow warming trend for much of next week through Wednesday still looks likely, supported by small 25th-75th spreads in the NBM as well as tight clustering in individual GEFS members. Spreads increase Thursday and Friday which makes sense, as we introduce uncertainties associated with a possible new intrusion of cooler air and PoPs heading into the following weekend.

TES

AVIATION. (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

VFR conditions, dry weather, and surface winds from the NE-E will prevail at the TAF sites through the valid period. Occasional gusts in the STL metro area to 16kts or so should diminish by sunset with light winds settling in. Cooler temps late tonight should achieve needed water-air temp differences but drier air building in from the northeast, creating in effect a moving target, will make widespread river steam fog more uncertain, especially with regards to near TAF sites. Adding in the NE flow, have only add VCFG into the KSUS TAF with this issuance, with KCPS a lower confidence forecast.

TES

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL18 mi57 minE 910.00 miOvercast66°F48°F52%1025 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUIN

Wind History from UIN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N6N5N6N5N5NE5NE5NE5NE6NE6N5NE7NE6NE7NE8E6E66NE8NE9E7NE8E9
1 day agoSW3SW3SW3SW3N8N8N8N9N11N9N10N9N7N8N11N9N7N13N13NE12
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2 days agoS4S3SE4S4S4S4S3S3CalmS3S4S3S3S5SW3W65W5W3W3NW5W4SW4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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