Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:19AM||Sunset 7:49PM||Monday April 19, 2021 5:31 PM CDT (22:31 UTC)||Moonrise 10:24AM||Moonset 1:07AM||Illumination 55%|
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 192013 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 313 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
SHORT TERM. (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
Key messages through the short-term forecast period:
1) Confidence in measurable snow is increasing further south to near the St. Louis metropolitan area. Warm surface temperatures will likely prohibit accumulations on most surfaces, but grass and elevated surfaces may see accumulation.
2) Potentially-historic cold temperatures are all but certain tomorrow night. Century-old record low temperatures could fall, and damaging freeze is expected areawide. The Freeze Watch in effect for tomorrow was upgraded to a Freeze Warning.
A climatologically-impressive cold front is slowing down, now approaching the St. Louis metropolitan area. Strong southwesterly flow and very warm temperatures ahead of the front across a majority of the CWA have held the front back, but with loss of daytime heating, the front should advance rather quickly to the south this evening and overnight tonight. Temperatures continue to trend cooler with this historically-cold air mass, and now the potential for frost exists in portions of north-central MO behind the front. However, with precipitation likely beginning around the time temperatures would bottom out overnight and elevated winds providing some mixing, I opted not to issue a Frost Advisory for tonight. That being said, isolated areas of frost cannot be ruled out, and precautions should begin for protecting tender vegetation against the upcoming unprecedented cold weather.
After the front sags to the south tonight, a very robust upper-level shortwave will traverse the central Plains and enter the Mid- Mississippi Valley through the morning tomorrow. Deterministic guidance continues to depict strong PVA associated with the trough as it moves through the region, which will provide ample upper-level support for precipitation Tuesday. A very stout band of 850-700mb frontogenesis continues to be depicted among the deterministic global models and CAMs, and this band of enhanced lift spends residence time in the DGZ. All of this points to the potential for measurable snow across portions of the CWA, primarily in northeast/central MO and west-central IL. The saving grace for accumulations in this area would be if antecedent temperatures are too warm to allow snow to stick. Seeing that recent temperatures have been above freezing, and today in particular was quite warm, widespread accumulation on pavement appears unlikely. That being said, a sloppy morning commute is in store for those in northeast/central MO and west-central IL.
A large, important area of uncertainty is the point at which precipitation changes over from snow to rain as the stratiform band pushes south through the day. Guidance for surface temperatures continues to trend colder late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, especially within the band of precipitation. While guidance doesn't go as far as suggesting freezing/subfreezing temperatures as far south as St. Louis, locally-high precipitation rates could cool temperatures to the point where minor accumulations could occur during a brief window in the afternoon. Unfortunately, the ability to forecast the magnitude by which precipitation rates cool the air and effect accumulations is quite low until the event materializes. Given the potential for sufficient cooling to allow for periods of snow during the afternoon in east-central and southeast MO, minor accumulations were expanded south compared to the last forecast. That being said, the scenario of a rain/snow mix this far south appears more likely given the marginal temperatures and high sun angle of mid/late April.
The lovely temperatures we experienced today will be a distant memory 24 hours from now when a highly-anomalous, potentially historic cold air mass takes hold of the region tomorrow night. In addition to 100 year old minimum temperature records for April 21st remaining in serious jeopardy of being broken, a damaging freeze appears all but certain areawide. The Freeze Watch that was issued yesterday for tomorrow night was upgraded to a Freeze Warning as a part of this forecast package. While temperatures continue to trend slightly colder on Thursday as well, no watch or warning is in effect for that time period as of yet.
LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
While attention was given to the forecast concerns through Wednesday morning, here are the key messages in the extended period:
1) Another round of very abnormal cold is expected Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, with renewed concerns for a damaging freeze.
2) Other than a chance for precipitation Wednesday afternoon with a moisture-starved clipper, the forecast remains dry through Thursday night.
3) Rain chances appear more likely to finish the week, but the combination of timing uncertainty and a complicated system evolution kept PoPs relatively muted.
Deterministic guidance continues to hint at a quick clipper system affecting the region Wednesday afternoon. Moisture availability appears very limited, but sufficient forcing for very light precipitation across northeast MO and west-central IL does exist. Given the nature of the system, particularly its low-QPF potential, the NBM does not show any mentionable PoPs. Using a blend of deterministic guidance, slight-chance PoPs were added to account for this potential.
The historically-cold air mass that sets up tomorrow will remain in place areawide Wednesday night into Thursday as well, though temperatures may be ever-so-slightly warmer. Regardless, temperatures continue to trend lower for this time period, and renewed potential for widespread freeze exists. The only aspect working against a second night of freeze would be cloud cover inhibiting radiational cooling. While there are some clouds in the forecast for Wednesday night/Thursday morning, the air mass may be cold enough in its own right to cause a freeze without help from robust radiational cooling.
The forcing for the rain chances later this week remains pretty complex, but the chance for measurable precipitation is slowly increasing. Three separate streams of energy have the potential to phase as they enter the region: one from the north, one out of the central Rocky Mountains, and a third from the south. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to differ regarding evolution and phasing of the shortwaves. WPC Cluster Analysis shows consent among the guidance regarding some precipitation Friday, but varies regarding the amounts and location. Given the reasonable uncertainty with the system and more immediate concerns in the short-term period, PoPs from the NBM were used for this period.
AVIATION. (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
A cold front is currently moving south through northeast MO and west-central IL, having already passed through KUIN this morning. Other than elevated sustained winds/gusts along/behind the front and a wind shift to the north/northwest, no restrictions are expected and VFR conditions should prevail through tonight.
Early tomorrow morning, another upper-level disturbance will move across the region and interact with the very cold air that will be in place. A late-season round of snow appears increasingly likely, especially at KUIN and KCOU tomorrow morning. MVFR, and eventually IFR, CIGs are forecast, along with some VIS restrictions that could drop to IFR in heavier precipitation.
Uncertainty grows as the system approaches the St. Louis metropolitan terminals, however the potential is growing for measurable snow at the terminals. Right now, the forecast calls for a rain/snow mix. Temperatures will be near freezing, but higher rates may be able to overcome the slightly-above-freezing air and allow snow to fall. CIGs appear to drop to IFR and remain there through the early afternoon, but VIS could also fall below the current MVFR forecast if a heavier band of precipitation sets up.
CLIMATE. Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
An potentially-historic airmass is expected to threaten low temperature records across our area for the middle of the week. Here is a look at record min temps and record low max temps during that time.
TUE 4/20 WED 4/21 THU 4/22
RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES St. Louis (KSTL) 28/1904 32/1904 31/1936 Columbia (KCOU) 28/1953 29/1907 29/1986 Quincy (KUIN) 27/2013 26/1904 27/1986
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES St. Louis (KSTL) 42/1918 46/1893 43/1884 Columbia (KCOU) 38/1918 42/1992 48/1893 Quincy (KUIN) 39/1918 37/1918 44/1927
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair-Washington IL.
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|Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL||18 mi||37 min||NNW 15 G 23||10.00 mi||Overcast||46°F||33°F||61%||1015.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KUIN
Wind History from UIN (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||NW||NW||NW||W||W||NW||NW||NW||W||W||W||W||SW||W||W||W||NW||W||W||W||W||W|
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