Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hannibal, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Analysis of recent GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery reveals longwave troughing near the Four Corners Region with ridging across the eastern U.S., placing our area under a southwesterly regime.
Strong and persistent southerly flow, continuing to advect Gulf moisture into the region, has helped to boost instability, with MLCAPE values well over 2,000 J/kg (99th climatological percentile)
for much of the area. The latest ACARS soundings out of KSTL (18Z)
reveals a slightly capped environment, with MLCIN around -20 J/kg correlated with an 800mb capping inversion. A few isolated showers, with occasional flashes of lightning have been pushing eastward across IL this afternoon, struggling to intensify. With the past behavior of these showers, indication is that a weak cap is still in place for the time being, supporting the KSTL ACARS sounding. Some high-res guidance fires an isolated thunderstorm or two across the area this afternoon/evening across an environment that is favorable to support supercells, should a storm overcome the inversion, tapping into the anomalous instability available. As a result, confidence is low in an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. The best chance for this would be the result of a subtle mid-level forcing mechanism (shortwave)
passing over and/or localized areas of surface and moisture convergence occur. All of which even high-resolution guidance can't resolve with detail or accuracy, lending to the lower confidence.
Lastly, if scattered convective initiation occurs, storms that form would have potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.

Further upstream, across OK/KS, CAMs are keying in on convective initiation this afternoon/evening, with eventual upscale growth leading to a remnant convective system approaching the region later this evening into the overnight hours. Model guidance reveals that this convection will be initiating off a more apparent mid-level shortwave within the southwesterly flow. With a larger scale feature at play that models are able to resolve, confidence is high in convective initiation across OK/KS and eventual upscale growth of storms into our area. Atmospheric instability across our area will steadily be decreasing with the loss of insolation, which is indicated well by forecast model soundings. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms is forecast to gradually weaken with time/eastward extent. However, these storms still has good potential to be severe across our area since HRRR mean SBCAPE values are around 1,000-1,500 J/kg when these storms are modeled to enter the area. Any remaining severe thunderstorms would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, with a lower threat for tornadoes.

On Wednesday, model guidance reveals a few subtle shortwaves propagating northeastward across the region on Wednesday that could result in a messier setup with more abundant showers and convection.
Confidence is low in the potential regarding any lingering convection or additional rounds of storms originating upstream from OK/KS Wednesday morning and into the day. The evolution of daytime convection across our area will have a great influence on the severe weather threat that is realized Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Kinematically speaking, Wednesday will feature greater shear as the mid/upper-level longwave trough out west ejects into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, HRRR mean 0-6km Bulk Shear steadily increases from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night/early Thursday, when it peaks around 40-45kts as the longwave trough advances over the area. Our greatest threat for severe weather is still forecast to be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through northwest-southeast. As of now, the main hazards associated with this severe threat are large hail and damaging winds with a low risk for tornadoes. A severe weather threat may linger into early Thursday across parts of southeast MO/southwest IL, as that is where the cold front will take the longest to exit.

Peine

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

NAM/GFS are in general agreement that a shortwave trough will move east of the area early in the day on Thursday. An attendant surface cold front/trough will move across Missouri/Illinois with only weak convergence along it will be enough to generate showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern half of CWA (60-80% chance) of the CWA during the morning before shortwave ridging begins moving in from the west. Then it looks like there will be a period of dry weather on Thursday night as the ridge moves across the area before southwesterly flow sets up over the area on Friday ahead of trough that be moving across the Plains.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the day Friday and especially Friday night as ascent from the trough and forcing from the associated surface front will move into the CWA during the night in an unstable and sheared environment. These storms look to be the result of upscale growth from storms that will develop in the Mid Missouri Valley on Friday afternoon and evening. There is good agreement in the medium range models with little spread in the LREF. This front is currently on track to move through the area on Saturday which would bring an end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east. Even with this said, if the trough/front does speed up on Friday, then there will be a greater chance for severe weather here on Friday vs if is slows down, there would be the possibility we could see strong/severe thunderstorms on Saturday. By early next week, mainly dry weather is expected as northwesterly flow sets up over the area and a large surface high moves across the area. Very few (<10%) of the LREF members are producing precipitation over the area early next week.

High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s through Friday ahead of the front before temperatures drop to around 60 degrees on Sunday behind the front. There will be some rebound in highs by Monday and Tuesday as they climb back into the 70s.

Britt

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A low chance (20%) for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm exists for the area this afternoon/evening, but was not mentioned in the TAF because of the lower confidence of occurrence. Even though the chance is low, it is important to note, that if an isolated thunderstorm is able to form this afternoon/evening and directly impact a local terminal, IFR/below airport minimum visibilities along with damaging winds and hail would be possible. Confidence is higher in a remnant system of thunderstorms moving eastward out of KS/OK later this evening, potentially impacting local terminals by the late evening/overnight timeframe. If stronger thunderstorms persist with this system and directly impact a terminal, IFR/below airport minimum visibilities along with damaging winds and hail are certainly possible. Confidence is once again lower in conditions beyond the early morning with potential for some remaining showers/convection beyond what is indicated by the current TAF.
Otherwise, gusty (20-30kts) southerly winds continue into early tonight before slackening off tomorrow morning, possibly gusting again by tomorrow afternoon.

Peine

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.