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FXUS63 KLSX 051152 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 552 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will move through the area today. Clouds will move in from the northwest behind the front late this morning/afternoon resulting in morning high temperatures and steady or falling temperatures this afternoon.

- Confidence remains high (90% +) in well above normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

- The next chance for precipitation will begin late Friday and continue at least through Saturday night as a strong storm system affects the region.

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Low pressure over eastern Iowa will move southeast through the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley today. The low will drag a cold front through our forecast area which will turn the flow to the northwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today in the northwest flow. Additionally, a broad area of clouds (currently over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa) behind the low will move over our area this afternoon further suppressing afternoon temperatures. In fact, our highs today in the low to mid 40s will probably be before noon in most locations. High pressure will build over southern Missouri/northern Arkansas tonight. Current temperatures associated with this airmass are in the mid 20s to low 30s which agrees well with guidance lows for our area tonight.

Carney

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

The upper level ridge currently over the western US will build eastward through the end of the week, which will bring warmer temperatures to the Mid Mississippi Valley. This ridge will also end the short wave train we've been experiencing over the past few days, and dry weather should prevail at least through Thursday night. Latest temperature guidance shows highs warming into the upper 50s and low 60s for Thursday and Friday. The Grand Ensemble shows only a 3-5 degree difference between the 10th and 90th percentile high temperature forecast for both Thursday and Friday, so confidence in this forecast is high.

Guidance continues to show a deep trough moving across the Rockies into the Plains late Friday into Saturday, resulting in impressive low level cyclogenesis. This will almost certainly bring another round of precipitation to the Mid Mississippi Valley for Friday night through at least Saturday night and possibly into Sunday. The current track of the low would keep the precipitation primarily liquid through Saturday evening with a possibility of rain/snow mix in the cold sector as the low exits the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. With that said, there are large differences between ensemble clusters out that far with respect to timing and amplitude of the trough, so it's likely the precip type forecast will evolve as we move closer to the weekend.

Carney

AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

A cold front will move through the area this morning. This will shift the wind from the southwest to the northwest as it passes.
Wind will also increase to 12-15kts with gusts up to 25kts behind the front. Additionally, a broad area of MVFR ceilings will overspread the forecast area from northwest to southeast in the wake of the front. VFR conditions will prevail ahead of these low clouds. Once the low ceilings move in, MVFR conditions will prevail into the evening for central and northeast Missouri before some partial clearing. MVFR will likely prevail for the whole night for the remainder of the area.

Carney

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.

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