Jacksonville, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jacksonville, IL

June 22, 2024 7:02 AM CDT (12:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM
Moonrise 8:48 PM   Moonset 4:39 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, IL
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Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 541 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024


- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight...with the highest probability of damaging wind gusts and hail focused along and northwest of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line.

- After a brief cool-down on Sunday, temperatures will once again climb early next week. Heat index readings will exceed 100 degrees by Tuesday.

- A second cold front will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing another chance for much-needed rainfall.

(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Low pressure currently over Nebraska will track northeastward into the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front into central Illinois tonight.
Given the trajectory of the low, the front will not have a strong southward push and will instead gradually sag into the area. The airmass ahead of the boundary across eastern/southern Iowa will become moderately unstable/sheared this afternoon...with HRRR ensemble mean SBCAPEs of 2000-3000J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear increasing to 30-35kt. As a result, scattered thunderstorms will initiate across this area...then congeal into a broken line as they push across the Mississippi River into west-central Illinois this evening.
CAMs have slowed the arrival of the convection by a couple of hours...with consensus suggesting thunderstorms reaching the far NW KILX CWA around Galesburg between 7pm and 9pm. Given favorable instability/shear parameters, a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts will initially accompany the storms. However, as the activity drops further southeastward, the atmosphere will decouple and become more stable with time. The severe risk will therefore diminish later in the evening, with only a 5-10% chance of a severe wind gust reaching the I-72 corridor around midnight. Areal coverage of storms will continue to decrease overnight as they push into an even less favorable environment south of I-72. Storm total rainfall tonight will be greatest along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington line where amounts of 0.75 to locally greater than 1 inch will be likely. Amounts will rapidly decrease further southeast with locations along/south of a Taylorville to Paris line only picking up 0.25 or less.

Scattered showers/thunder may linger and/or re-develop across east-central and southeast Illinois on Sunday before the cold front settles into the Ohio River Valley: however, am not expecting any substantial rainfall from the few showers that persist on Sunday. The main story will be the slightly cooler/less humid conditions as highs drop into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.


(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

After a warm/dry day on Monday, another cold front will drop into the region by Tuesday. With temperatures spiking back into the middle 90s and dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s ahead of the boundary, peak afternoon heat index values will exceed 100 degrees.
As the front arrives, another round of scattered strong convection will be on tap Tuesday night into Wednesday. After that, upper troughing over the Great Lakes will bring a more substantial cool-down for the end of next week as highs drop into the middle to upper 80s Wednesday through Friday.


(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Main aviation forecast challenge will be predicting the areal coverage and timing of convection ahead of a cold front late this evening. Latest CAMs have slowed the approach of a broken line of storms by 1-3 hours from prior runs. Based on trends, have included predominant thunder at KPIA between 03z and 06z and at KBMI between 04z and 07z. Have opted to maintain PROB30 thunder at the remaining terminals as the storms will tend to weaken and decrease in areal coverage the further southeast they track into central Illinois. Once the front passes, a band of MVFR ceilings will settle southward late tonight into Sunday morning. Based on HRRR timing, have added MVFR at KPIA after 08z...then further south to KDEC/KCMI by 10z. SW winds will increase and gust 20-25kt from late morning through this evening. After FROPA, winds will veer to NW and decrease to 10-15kt overnight.



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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KIJX JACKSONVILLE MUNI,IL 3 sm27 minS 0710 smClear73°F68°F83%30.04
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Central Illinois, IL,

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