Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:29PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 4:02 AM CDT (09:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:47AMMoonset 2:57PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, IL
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location: 39.73, -90.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 150818 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 318 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

A much different story than 25 hours ago, as clouds increase over the region with showers and storms approaching from the west. Activity will pick up through the morning, into the afternoon from western Illinois through central Illinois. Heading into the afternoon, expecting the chance for strong to severe storms to impact portions of central and southern Illinois. Chances for showers and isolated storms continues into the second half of the week, as temps begin increasing towards the weekend.

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

A much different picture this morning, than from 24 hours ago. Clouds are quickly increasing across the western Midwest, expected to bring mostly cloudy skies to the region today. Early morning radar shows two complexes that are worth mentioning. The first complex is more linear across northern Missouri, associated with the frontal boundary. This area is expected to continue pushing eastward through the morning, however as it approaches the western CWA, drier conditions should hold of any precip till around 12z. A large precip shield is evident on mosaic radar, as the 0.5-degree scan shows some precip beginning to show across western IL, and even inching into the far western CWA. Mid and low level moisture profiles are still very dry, as Td spreads are in the 8-10 degree range. Expecting showers and storms to slowly shift southeast, before being ingested into the MCS that is tracking through Kansas currently. This is the main convective system that will be of focus today across central and southern Illinois.

This MCS will ride along the stalled out boundary from the upper Low pressure system in southern Canada. With the track along and south of the I-72 corridor, expecting storms to continue for a majority of the afternoon and evening with this complex. SPC did increase portions of the CWA into the Enhanced Risk category for severe weather this afternoon and evening. This area is focused sw of a Rushville-Lincoln-Effingham enclosure. With the frontal boundary stalled out, and the complex tracking along this boundary, expecting shear values to increase through the day. Looking over hodographs this morning, there is indication for the possibility of tornadoes this afternoon with supercell development. However, this threat should be limited to the afternoon as storms build and move east. As the evening arrives, expecting the main concerns to shift into a damaging wind event, with a more linear progression of cells. As with any of the storms, the possibility of hail will occur, but this threat appears lower than the others. WPC did mention with their morning update about the chance for heavy rainfall. Models are hinting at upwards of 2 inches of rain, especially along the boundary and to the south . so southern Illinois. Some localized 3 inch values could occur however those appear to be south of the ILX CWA.

As this system exits overnight, the weak cold front will dip southeast of the CWA. This is expected to end rain chances overnight into early Thursday morning. However, temps will remain mild, as this is not a very dominate frontal passage.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Looking ahead to the rest of this week and weekend . precipitation activity will continue each day throughout much of the period. Although this should remain isolated to maybe scattered in nature. High pressure situated across the southern US will lift into the central latitudes towards the weekend, lifting the excessive heat currently in the desert sw. This will bring hot and humid conditions back to the Midwest for the upcoming weekend, as temps peak in the 90s . with morning lows being very mild in the mid 70s. With the hot humid conditions, Td values will peak in the mid to upper 70s, bringing heat index values into the 100-110 degree range. Current indications for the weekend show a heat advisory may be needed Saturday and Sunday.

The heat does not appear to let up anytime soon, as predictions for well above average temperatures continues into the start of next week . temps linger in the 90s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Trends continue to slow some on the greatest threat for thunderstorm activity across central Illinois. For the 06Z forecast, will delay the thunder mentions until the afternoon hours, with a VCSH mention in the morning. KSPI/KDEC appear to have the greatest risk of heavier thunderstorm activity, which may produce some IFR/MVFR visibilities for a time. Will cover that possibility with a PROB30 group in the 22-24Z time frame. Once the storms pass, ceilings expected to quickly fall to around 2,000 feet or lower.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Baker SHORT TERM . Baker LONG TERM . Baker AVIATION . Geelhart


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Municipal Airport, IL3 mi68 minSE 610.00 miFair70°F67°F92%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIJX

Wind History from IJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE4SE6SE8SE6S9S6S5SE9SE8SE9SE12SE11SE10SE9S7SE5SE5SE5SE5SE3SE5SE6SE6
1 day agoE3E5E3CalmSE4S4CalmSE5SE4CalmSE7E7E6SE3SE8SE7SE3SE4E5SE7SE6SE6SE4SE5
2 days agoNW3NW4NW3N6NW8N7NW5NW5W8NW5N6N5N5N9N6N7N5N4CalmCalmCalmN4E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.