Jacksonville, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jacksonville, IL

April 23, 2024 1:17 PM CDT (18:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM
Moonrise 6:50 PM   Moonset 4:54 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 231711 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase shortly after daybreak and continue through early evening. Scattered thunderstorms could accompany the rain, with a few stronger storms possible north of I-74 later this afternoon.

- Frost/freeze potential returns near and north of Macomb to Mattoon line Thursday morning. There is a 40-80% chance for air temperatures below 37 degrees.

- A warmer and more active weather pattern arrives late in the week. Several chances for showers and storms exist late Thursday night through the weekend, including the potential for heavy rain and severe weather.

UPDATE
Issued at 1004 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Showers have overspread much of central Illinois north of I-72 late this morning and will gradually settle southward through the afternoon. Latest RAP indicates a narrow ribbon of around 150-200 J/kg MLCAPE developing along a cold front this afternoon and evening. Convergence along the front and upper support from a digging shortwave remain strongest over northern Illinois and the Great Lakes where precip chances are the greatest, but showers and storms may reach as far south as around the I-74 corridor.

Deubelbeiss

DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Radar imagery early this morning shows spotty showers over parts of the state. Most of this is struggling to reach the ground due to dry low to mid-level air. Forecast soundings show a wing of moisture associated with a mid-level shortwave advecting into the area shortly after daybreak, which is when we should start to see more precipitation reaching the ground. Showers and isolated storms will persist through this afternoon, gradually shifting southeast through this evening. High resolution convective allowing models have shown a secondary line of widely scattered showers and storms developing just ahead of a southeastward progressing cold front later this afternoon into early evening north of I-72. Instability will be minimal due to the overall lack of moisture, but favorable wind shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support a few storms capable of gusty winds and small hail. QPF through tonight looks to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches.

Surface ridging spills into the area for the middle of the week, turning temperatures cooler. Overnight lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning will dip down into the middle 30s to low 40s, posing a threat for frost. The highest chances for frost development will be near and north of a Macomb to Mattoon line where the NBM has a 40-80% chance for temperatures being 37 degrees or colder.

The cool snap will be short lived with upper ridging bringing warmer temperatures back into the area by the end of the week. Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend, approaching 80 degrees in spots by Saturday. A series of upper impulses will bring an extended period of active weather Friday through the weekend characterized by storms, heavy rain, and some severe weather. The first shot arrives late Thursday night into Friday morning as a surface low lifting into the northern Plains sends a warm front north through the area.
Storm chances continue into Friday, though higher instability looks to remain focused just west of our CWA Despite this, strong effective wind shear due to an approaching mid-level jet may support a few organized storms Friday afternoon/evening as activity spreads east.

Better instability shifts into the area on Saturday as a cold front stalls out somewhere just west of here. Storm chances will increase once again Saturday evening as an upper trough lifts toward the middle Mississippi Valley, potentially bringing another shot at some severe storms. A deepening surface low will lift toward the Great Lakes Region on Sunday, sending a cold front through the area Sunday night. Timing differences still remain with this feature, but favorable parameters once again could support severe weather if the timing of FROPA isn't too late. 72 hour QPF totals between Friday and Monday look to be rather hefty with the NBM indicating a 50-80% chance of 1.5 inches or more and a 20-50% chance of 2 inches or more (higher end chances west of I-55).

NMA

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A prefrontal band of rain currently across central Illinois will sag south this afternoon and should end along the I-72 terminals by around 22Z. A few spotty showers or storms are possible along the front this evening, but the best chances will be north of the terminals. SW winds will veer to NW behind the front this evening, then gradually veer to NW overnight into Wednesday morning.
Outside of a brief window of MVFR/IFR possible with the rain this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Sunday.

Deubelbeiss

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KIJX JACKSONVILLE MUNI,IL 3 sm22 minWSW 035 smOvercast50°F50°F100%29.90
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Central Illinois, IL,



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