Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Magalia, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:43PM Friday December 6, 2019 7:59 AM PST (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Magalia, CA
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location: 39.77, -121.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA
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FXUS66 KSTO 061132 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 332 AM PST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Another strong winter storm will bring periods of rain, mountain snow, strong winds and hazardous travel Friday and into the weekend. Dry conditions return next week with near average temperatures.

DISCUSSION. Deep closed low (about a -4 standardized height anomaly) vicinity of 40N/135W will bring another round of impactful winter wx to Norcal this weekend. Hazardous mountain travel due to periods of heavy snow, roadway flooding, strong winds, and thunderstorms containing small hail (graupel) are expected at times over the next 3 days.

The U.S. West Coast AR Landfall Tool shows a moderate TPW plume (AR) on our doorstep, and at 37-41 deg N latitude putting the Feather River basin and 80/50 corridor right in its path. Heavy mountain snow with significant travel impacts is expected to begin later this evening for elevations above 6000-6500 ft. NAM BUFKIT for BLU begins precip around 05z Sat (or 9 pm PST Fri), and likely a couple hrs earlier for Wrn Plumas Co given the storm's trajectory.

Another soaking rain is expected with 1 to 3 inches of rain forecast for the Valley and 4 to over 6 inches of liquid precip for the Nrn mtns/W Slope Sierra. Several feet of snow is expected over the high Sierra. Snow levels should lower below 6 kft on Sun as the upper low drops Swd over our Norcal. Satellite indicates a well developed comma cloud (baroclinic leaf) with lots of cold, unstable air associated with it. As this colder air approaches our area Sat, and moves over CWA on Sun, thunderstorms are likely in our CWA, especially Sat afternoon and evening as the upper low moves into Norcal. On Sun, the storms could be more confined to just the east side of the Valley and West Slope Sierra given the trajectory and timing of the upper low. Small hail/graupel is likely with these storms as indicated by the "thin CAPE" on the forecast soundings. Precip forecast to wind down Sun nite, followed by dry wx to start the work week.

NAM model REF forecasts, along with the NBM QPFs, suggest a line of intense rainfall is possible Sat afternoon from the Lake Co area, across the Sac Vly and into the Feather River basin before becoming more scattered and generally less organized over the West Slopes early in the evening. This is when we could see some roadway flooding from a few hours of locally heavy rainfall rates of a quarter to a half inch per hr over the coastal range and valley, and over a half inch per hr in the Feather River Basin. Looks as if only an hr or two of these heavy rates over the coastal range before the line moves through, with about 3-4 hrs over the Feather Basin. Travel over the high Sierra could be impacted with near "whiteout" conditions from mid afternoon Sat and into early Sat evening.

Additionally, Sly pressure gradients should tighten dramatically with the approaching surface front leading to WAD criteria for the Valley as a 50+ kt LLJ (NAM 925 mbs winds) develops Fri evening. Breezy to windy conditions should last into Sat. Similar to the last event, the isothermal lapse rates caused by the WAA will preclude downward momentum transfer of all of the LLJ wind. As a rule-of- thumb, the peak wind gusts end up to be about 2/3 of the 925 mbs winds in these isothermal profile cases. The ECMWF ensemble wind gusts for RDD indicates the potential for a AWW (airport wx warning) for gusts in excess of 40 mph.

Drier conditions expected to spread from N to S over our CWA on Sun and Sun night as the upper low drops S of our area and heights begin to rise. Dry Nly flow prevails over Norcal on Mon. JHM

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday).

Ensemble guidance for the extended forecast shows the ridge that builds over on Monday us holds steady for Tuesday with a weak trough trying slide over NorCal for Wednesday. NBM guidance and even deterministic models are in agreement that the Coastals, Cascades, and perhaps even the northern Sierra could squeeze some light precip out of this disturbance. Once this slides through ensembles show ridging building back over California, with zonal flow looking likely for the weekend. NBM guidance carries a bit of PoP over the mountainous terrain, but overall expect the forecast to be mostly dry.

AVIATION.

The forecast is on track this morning with stratus lingering around the area. Some sites have been observing MVFR conditions because of this, with even dipping into IFR/LIFR for brief periods. Wind and mixed cloud levels will likely keep the fog situations brief, with most areas seeing periods of MVFR conditions before daybreak.

Looking further ahead, we'll see an atmospheric river moving into NorCal today. High clouds are already being observed via satellite, limiting our view of the pesky stratus this morning. Expect to see lowering ceilings and visibility later today as rain moves into the region, spreading from the northwest to the southwest. For terminals in the mountains, snow levels are forecast to remain above 6000-7000 feet for the TAF cycle. Winds are expected to be from the south around 10-20kt, increasing to 15-30 kt after 03Z. Gusts up to 30-45kt are expected in the Valley, with stronger gusts forecast for the mountains.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PST Sunday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chico Municipal Airport, CA12 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast54°F50°F88%1017.9 hPa
Oroville Municipal Airport, CA19 mi66 minESE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F48°F89%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCIC

Wind History from CIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmS7CalmSW8CalmCalmNE4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW5NW4NW5W4Calm------S4CalmCalmSE4CalmSW3CalmNW4NW5NW4Calm
2 days agoNW6NW8NW6NW3NW7NW8NW10NW10NW10NW5------SE8SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Fri -- 01:32 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:26 AM PST     1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:01 AM PST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:18 PM PST     2.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:15 PM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.51.91.91.71.41.10.70.50.30.20.411.72.22.62.62.31.91.51.10.70.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California
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Clarksburg #4
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM PST     1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:32 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM PST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:09 PM PST     2.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.91.91.61.30.90.60.40.20.20.61.21.82.32.62.52.21.81.30.90.60.40.30.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Sacramento, CA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Beal AFB, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.