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FXUS66 KSTO 032027 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 127 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Synopsis
Dry and warming conditions this week. Occasional breezy north wind. The potential for rain and cooler temperatures returns early next week.

Discussion
Eastern Pacific upper level ridging is building in over the region while upper troughing to the east moves into the Rocky Mountains. Surface high pressure over the Pacific northwest is building, strengthening the north-northeast pressure gradient.
this will bring increasing winds this evening and overnight through Wednesday. Expect breezy north winds for the northern and central Sacramento Valley with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph. Breezy northeast to east winds are forecast for the foothills, especially through canyons and gaps with wind gusts to 30 mph and locally higher at times. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible with the breezy winds and afternoon humidity dropping into the upper teens to around 20 percent. Recent rains will help mitigate fire weather concerns, though, especially for the mountains and canyons, where 1-3" fell over the weekend.
Lighter north to east winds are expected Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures will trend up this week, more like late summer than the fall weather we have been seeing. Many Valley locations will reach 90 degrees or even the low 90's Wednesday through Friday, which will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
The upper-level ridge will be progressing westward and out of our area Saturday and will be replaced by a troughing pattern starting Sunday. Heights and temperatures will lower as a frontal system and short wave trough will approach or area. Current cluster analysis shows agreement on timing of the frontal system and shortwave moving into our area. Ensembles (GFS and ECMWF)
depict precipitation entering the northwest counties in our area late Monday night and into Tuesday. NBM continues to give non-zero (10-25%) chances of precipitation beginning Monday morning, so there is some disagreement on precipitation onset timing within models. Tuesday is currently has the best chances of precipitation for most of our area, with higher chances in the north-central Sac Valley, Coastal Range, and Sierra. A 15-25% chance of precipitation exists for the Delta and Sac Metro on Tuesday as well.

Temperatures on Saturday will be the warmest, with highs approaching and breaking 90 for the Valley. Temperatures cool with the approach and passing of the frontal boundary Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the 70s-80s for the Valley and cooler mid 60s for higher elevations.

AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Areas of North surface winds up to 15 kts with local gusts 20-30kts possible near KRDD and KRBL after 02z.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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