Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:52 AM   Moonset 1:20 PM

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FXUS63 KIND 022256 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 656 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and more humid today with chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms throughout much of the forecast period, with continued above normal temperatures.

- Potential for severe weather during the middle of next week, highest chances Tuesday evening and Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

As of 2pm, temperatures have climbed into the mid 80s across much of central Indiana. With partly cloudy skies and a couple more hours of heating...it is not out of the question that a few record high temps are set before the day is out. A rather large cumulus field signifies that we have reached our convective temps across most of the area, however. This could act to limit further warming to only a degree or two. Though some drier air filtering in from the south may allow for a better rate of warming, especially south of Indy.

The aforementioned cumulus field has shown some vertical growth as a low-level capping inversion is slowly eroded. Higher-res guidance continues to depict a few showers or thunderstorms developing this afternoon, especially near the warm front where richer moisture can be found. Coverage will be limited, as large-scale lift is weak and drier air is flowing from the south as mentioned before.
Nevertheless, ACARS/model soundings show sufficient mid-level dry air for DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg, which supports the potential for gusty winds/downbursts. Additionally, lapse rates and CAPE profiles support a marginal hail threat. Hail size may be limited by weak storm top flow and a CAPE profile that tapers towards the top of the hail growth zone. Overall, any strong wind gusts / hail will be limited to the strongest updrafts...which will be very isolated in nature.

Overnight, a cold front to our west begins to work its way into Indiana. Richer moisture and forcing accompany it, and so our chances for rain go up quite a bit. Most locations will see showers at some point through tomorrow morning. A few thunderstorms may be embedded within the area of showers, but weak lapse rates and low shear should limit severe potential.

Rain slowly diminishes during the day on Friday as the front slowly works its way through Indiana. Showers may persist on and off, along with low cloud coverage, through the afternoon. Once the front passes, gradual improvement is expected as we head into the weekend.

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday Night Through Sunday.

Active weather is expected for much of the long term period with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather at times next week. The first round is expected Friday night into early Saturday with the passage of a cold front.
There will be little instability and only 15-20kts of effective bulk shear with this frontal passage, so not expecting anything more than a few rumbles of thunder and up to a half inch of QPF. Model soundings show much drier air working in the aftermath of the frontal passage which should help skies to quickly clear out for much of Saturday.

This break in the rain will be brief with the next cold front passage expected late Saturday night into early Sunday. There will be a weak wave associated with the southern jet which may enhance precipitation across the southern counties along with the potential for a decaying MCS out of the northwest associated with the main system. The front should be through by the early afternoon with drier weather returning into late Sunday.

Monday Through Thursday.

On Monday a rapidly deepening upper level low pressure system will eject eastwards from the Rockies and begin to travel to the northeast with broad ascent across the Ohio Valley as a LLJ begins to advect warm and moist air through the column. This low pressure system is expected to slowly move through the Dakotas through Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana along with the potential for severe weather.

The timeframe for highest confidence in thunderstorms are Tuesday evening and again Wednesday night as the cold front associated with the main system finally pushes through. During both of those timeframes, damaging winds and large hail are possible with the highest confidence in severe weather during the overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday which is when shear will be maximized ahead of the frontal passage. The pattern will then shift late Thursday into the weekend with cooler and drier weather as the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly.

MMEFS river runs show that the expected rainfall of 1-3 inches between now and next Thursday shouldn't cause much more than a prolonging of action stage to low minor flooding through next week.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions expected approximately 08-18Z

- Showers and isolated storms mainly overnight into Friday morning

Discussion:

First several hours of the TAF period will remain VFR. Isolated convection will be possible, mainly north, but confidence and coverage are too low to mention.

Overnight, showers and isolated storms will overspread the area, reducing conditions to MVFR. There is a low chance of IFR at KBMG which will have to be monitored. These will move out by early afternoon Friday, but as a cold front moves through, there is a low chance for additional convection. Winds will become north behind the front.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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