Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Indianapolis, IN

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 8:40PM Saturday August 17, 2019 2:18 PM EDT (18:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indianapolis , IN
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location: 39.78, -86.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 171631
afdind
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
1230 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
The aviation section has been updated below.

Synopsis
Issued at 146 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
a warm and humid air mass will remain in place across central
indiana into the start of the work week. This along with a
lingering frontal boundary near central indiana and several
passing upper level weather disturbances will result in chances
for showers and storms each day through Monday along with above
normal temperatures.

Periodic showers and storms remain possible much of the next work
week. Cooler weather is expected to return late next week.

Near term today
Issued at 1005 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
radar was showing widespread showers and thunderstorms over central
illinois and knocking at the indiana border. This supports cat pops
today. Strong line of thunderstorms from near monticello, illinois
and extending south to just east of effingham will move into west
central illinois after 11 am and to near indianapolis around 1 pm.

Would not rule out isolated wind damage with this line if it can
hold together. Bulk shear to 40 knots over north central parts of
central indiana and surface base capes to 1500 j kg suggest it will.

Previous discussion follows...

issued at 146 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
surface analysis early this morning shows weak south to southwest
flow in place across indiana. High pressure was in place across
the southeastern states. Low pressure was found over kansas. A
warm and humid air mass had returned to central indiana as dew
points had returned to the upper 60s and lower 70s. For now radar
was quiet... But there were a few showers over illinois and near
the mississippi river.

Gfs and NAM both suggest a short wave over iowa mo will quickly
arrive in central indiana this afternoon. Time heights show
excellent lift... But forecast soundings fail to show deep
saturation and convective temps look difficult to reach.

Furthermore... Models have been having trouble with these subtle
short waves and lower level support is not helpful. Hrrr shows a
area of convection pushing across central indiana this afternoon
also. Thus overall... Confidence is low... But some pops will be
required... At or below the nbm. Given the expected clouds and
possible rain will also trend highs at or below the nbm.

Short term tonight through Monday night
Issued at 146 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
little change in the models since last night. Aloft a nearly zonal
flow is expected to persist through at least Tuesday. A series of
weak short waves are depicted to push across indiana and the ohio
valley tonight through Monday. At the surface... Mainly southerly
flow remains in place... Although a weak front looks to approach
the area on Monday. Models have had continued difficulty with
these weak short waves... But given the very warm and humid air
mass... At least some low chc pops will be needed through Monday.

Will trend pops at or below the nbm. Given the expected humid air
mass will stick close to the nbm highs and trend lows warmer.

Finally on Monday night the GFS seems to suggest the last of these
short waves exiting the area as high pressure remains in place
aloft across the western southwestern united states. Thus will
trend dry here... But overall confidence is low during this whole
period as pops will be highly dependent upon the forcing
associated with these subtle waves.

Long term Tuesday through Friday night
Issued at 337 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
the extended period will start out with a relatively active
weather pattern as showers and thunderstorms dominate the forecast
from Tuesday through Wednesday. A stationary boundary will drift
across the area on Tuesday, interacting with a hot and humid
environment. As a low pressure system strengthens over the great
lakes region on Wednesday though, that frontal boundary will
finally shift southward across central indiana as a cold front.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front along with some
cooler temperatures in its wake for Thursday and Friday. Before
that though, high temperatures will top off in the upper 80s and
low 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. As high pressure strengthens
both at the surface and aloft on Thursday, dry conditions will
return for the second half of the forecast period.

Aviation discussion for the 17 18z TAF issuance
Issued at 1230 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
hrrr suggest a few lingering storms are possible mainly at ind and
laf 00z-02z with an upper wave. This looks reasonable but chances
too low to put in the taf. Otherwise, would not rule out fog 09z-13z
per the GFS lamp, otherwise mostlyVFR flying conditions are
expected.

Winds will vary from southwest around 5 knots to light and variable.

Ind watches warnings advisories None.

Synopsis... Puma
near term... Puma mk
short term... Puma
long term... .Tdud
aviation... Mk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Indianapolis International Airport, IN7 mi25 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F66°F93%1013.7 hPa
Indianapolis, Eagle Creek Airpark, IN8 mi26 minESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F68°F96%1013.3 hPa
INDIANAPOLIS, IN18 mi44 minE 510.00 miLight Rain68°F68°F100%1015.9 hPa
Shelbyville Municipal Airport, IN23 mi26 minENE 48.00 miLight Rain69°F64°F87%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIND

Wind History from IND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW11S11S8SW8SW9SW9S8SW7S5SW5SW5SW6CalmSE4W4W4S3S3S5SW11W13S5SE9
1 day agoW10W10NW11
G17
NW10NW12NW8NW6NW5N6NE8N5NE4N4E3CalmS3SE3S4E6S9S8S9S9S8
2 days agoW9
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NW11W8W6W6NW5W6W5W5W5W5W5W5W5NW7NW6NW10NW7W11
G16
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Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Indianapolis, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.