Tuesday, June2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mercersburg, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:35PM Tuesday June 2, 2020 12:15 AM EDT (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 2:48AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1036 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore tonight. A warm front will advance across the waters late Tuesday into Tuesday night. A cold front will then approach the waters from the north Wednesday night and Thursday, stalling nearby through Friday. A second cold front will then sweep across the waters over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for a portion of the waters Tuesday night and again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mercersburg , PA
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location: 39.79, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 020319 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1119 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A seasonably cool and dry start to the month of June will precede a return to summer-like warmth with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through late week. Severe storms are possible on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. High pressure ridge and low pwat air over central Pa should ensure fair weather across central Pa the first half of tonight. Latest model guidance remains in good agreement, spreading rain into the northwest mountains around dawn in association with a an approaching shortwave and surface warm front over the Grt Lks. Thickening late night clouds and a southwest breeze will result in much milder conditions than last night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Strong warm advection at the nose of a 40kt low level jet will support a period of rain during the morning hours across parts of central Pa. Latest operational runs and 12Z HREF all target a swath from Warren county into Adams County for the steadiest rain with scattered showers indicated elsewhere. Expect most of the rain to exit the region by midday, as best forcing associated with shortwave clears the state. However, weaker warm advection east of an approaching warm front should support lingering cloud cover and spotty showers through the afternoon.

Have lowered temperatures Tuesday based on expected cloud cover and precipitation on the cool side of approaching warm front. Current forecast is for highs mostly in the 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Not a lot of change to this part of the package. Current fcst has MDT up around 90 degrees on Wed. I added more detail back into the climate section below. Guidance temperatures are a few degrees cooler.

Potential for severe storms at times into the weekend, given northwest flow aloft, and west to southwest flow of warm air at low levels. Guidance the last few days have featured rather high dewpoints into Friday evening. EC would support a rather strong cold push into the area by next Sunday.

Also to note.

Looking at 12Z EC shows remains of the tropical system still lingering near the Gulf Coast later next week. Overall an interesting period of weather coming up.

Earlier discussion below.

For late Tuesday night and Wednesday, a low-amplitude shortwave trough and a related belt of strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will overspread cold front pushing south-southeast from the lower Great Lakes. While there is some uncertainty regarding the exact degree of destabilization through Wednesday afternoon, moderate buoyancy is plausible near/south of the front, with severe storms expected particularly during the afternoon/early evening hours. The SPC D3 convective outlook has a SLGT risk across the southern 2/3 of CPA, with damaging winds and severe hail possible.

A big-time warmup is forecast for midweek with summerlike warmth and humidity helping to fuel severe storm potential. Highs near 90F are forecast in the Lower Susq Valley which is ~5 degrees below the record high at MDT. The northern 1/3 to 1/2 of CPA should dry out Wednesday night as the front settles southward toward the Mason Dixon line. However, models show convection lingering/training over southwest/south-central PA into Wednesday night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with a D3 MRGL risk WPC ERO which extends from the OH Valley eastward into the Laurel Highlands.

The cold front from Wednesday will likely stall out south of PA Thursday into Friday. This will result in dry weather across northern PA and some showers or thunderstorms in the south on Thursday. There's a better chance for some showers across all of central PA Friday as an upper level trough swings southeast across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Once that trough moves through we should see drier and slightly cooler weather for Saturday and Sunday. Overall the weekend looks quite nice with highs generally in the 70s and 80s Saturday, and 60s and 70s Sunday. The humidity will drop through the weekend with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday, then 40s and 50s Sunday.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. No significant change to the TAFS late this evening.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 00Z TAFS, looking at mainly VFR conditions tonight into Tuesday, given how dry the airmass is.

During the day on Tuesday, looking at a few showers moving into the area, mainly across the west, later in the day for the east. Limited lower CIGS etc to BFD. Wind shift to the southwest with the warm front. Winds becoming more westerly then northwesterly later Tuesday into Wednesday, as we get into the warm sector.

Conditions will remain a little unsettled for the later part of the week, as more in the way of warmer and humid air moves into the area. The cold front will be nearby. How far south the front can move will determine if we get much clearing later in the week.

Outlook .

Wed . Sct/nmrs SHRA and TSRA.

Thu . Chance of SHRA, mainly south.

Fri . Chance of SHRA.

Sat . Chance of SHRA, mainly south.

CLIMATE. The low of 46 degrees at Harrisburg this morning was 1 degree shy of the record of 45F.

For Wednesday (6/3), current fcst high around 90 degrees is close to the record of 96 degrees set in 1919.

Last month, Harrisburg saw its coldest May temperature on record /with records dating back to 1888/ with a low of 30 degrees on May 10th. A trace of snow also tied the record for snowiest May. Monthly climate summaries are available on our website at weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ctp

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Fitzgerald LONG TERM . Martin/Travis AVIATION . Martin CLIMATE . Martin/Steinbugl/Evanego


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 80 mi45 min W 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 65°F1021.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 80 mi45 min SSW 7 G 8 67°F 75°F1022.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 84 mi45 min SW 9.9 G 11 65°F 1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD12 mi22 minSE 410.00 miFair60°F42°F52%1022.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S4SW34W85W11
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2 days agoW3CalmNW5W7NW6NW9NW9NW7NW6NW5N7NW9Calm--W9W8NW14NW9NW10NW9NW10NW6NW13
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:06 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.91.92.73.33.63.42.82.11.50.90.50.20.41.122.73.13.12.72.11.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:03 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.411.92.83.43.63.32.82.11.40.90.50.20.51.222.73.13.12.721.30.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.