Mercersburg, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mercersburg, PA

February 20, 2024 5:04 PM EST (22:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:55 AM   Sunset 5:53 PM
Moonrise 2:04 PM   Moonset 5:06 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 333 Pm Est Tue Feb 20 2024

Rest of this afternoon - E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.

Tonight - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed - E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.

Wed night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.

Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Thu night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.

Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming nw. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.

Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 333 Pm Est Tue Feb 20 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build across the central and eastern united states through Wednesday. A frontal system and area of low pressure will likely approach Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns Saturday with an additional frontal system early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday afternoon through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mercersburg, PA
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Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 202129 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 429 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
- Trending milder with no precipitation through Wednesday - Rain likely Thursday into Friday; remaining mild for February - Turning brisk and colder (briefly) Friday night and Saturday - Springlike warm surge on the horizon next week

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Surface ridge and associated low-pwat air will continue to supply mostly clear conditions tonight. An persistent southeast wind should hold temps up and result in a milder night across the Alleghenies with min temps in the mid to upper 20s.
However, calm winds and boundary layer decoupling under the surface ridge axis should once again result in efficient radiational cooling across the east-central ridges into middle and lower Susquehanna Valleys (area of max snow depth) where overnight/early morning readings are likely to dip into the mid- upper teens or in the lower quartiles (5-25th percentile) of NBM min temp distribution. While this is the highest probability outcome, an alternative scenario would be if some low clouds develop toward daybreak over parts of south central PA associated with low level easterly fetch from the Atlantic.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure maintains fair and dry weather through Wednesday.
Expect more sun than clouds in the morning before multi-layered clouds steadily increase from west to east from the afternoon through tomorrow night.

Highs tomorrow should reach the 40-50F range from NE to SW.
These values are above daily climo with the largest departure from normal (+10-15F) over the western Alleghenies. Low temps trend +5-10F warmer night/night into the 25-35F range from east to west or as much as +15-20F above climo over the NW mtns.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Falling heights aloft and increasing deep layer moisture ahead of a deepening upstream trough will result in an increasing and eventually high probability of showers Thursday. A few showers may sneak into far NW zones by daybreak Thu. If precip arrives early enough, there could be enough cold air across the northern tier Thu morning for a bit of wintry mix at the onset, but too light and brief for any impacts.

The bulk of latest medium range guidance indicates sfc low pressure will form on the approaching cold front over the Mid Miss Valley Thursday, then track eastward across southern PA early Friday. This surface low track with an absence of a blocking high to the north supports a period of rain Thursday night into early Friday. Latest ensemble mean has trended lower with amounts, now showing 0.50 inch of rain across the western zones with lower amounts of just 0.25 or less across eastern zones.

A turn to blustery and colder conditions appears very likely Friday PM into Saturday, as the front exits the state and a deepening upper trough pivots over the region. A shot of seasonably cold air crossing the unfrozen Grt Lks is likely to generate a period of lake effect snow showers across the Alleghenies Friday night into part of Saturday. However, progged inversion heights look relatively low, so don't anticipate significant accumulations.

There is high confidence in fair and chilly weather Sat night into early Sunday, as high pressure builds across the state, then milder weather returns late this weekend into early next week as the upper trough lifts out. However, confidence in precipitation is much lower. Some medium range guidance supports the chance of a few rain showers accompanying a dying cold front passage Sunday PM, with additional showers possible as the stalled front pushes back northward by Tuesday of next week. High temps on Monday and Tuesday should be in the 50s, starting off the last work week of February on a warm note.

AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Late afternoon update.

A dry airmass in place with clear skies and VFR conditions across the region late this afternoon. No real change to the forecast.

No real signal for any low level moisture getting into the area from either from the west or east before Thursday.

Earlier discussion below.

High pressure will dominate the TAF cycle with a greater than 80% chance of VFR and light wind through 21/18Z. A veil of cirrus should peel northward across the airspace tonight. Latest HRRR data shows some potential (up to 30% chance) for MVFR cigs to develop overnight into early Wednesday morning over parts of the central and eastern airspace due to southeast flow. Odds favor a continuation of VFR flying through midweek.

Outlook...

Thu-AM Fri...Rain with sub-VFR restrictions probable.

Fri PM-Sat...Becoming windy with 25-35kt gusts from 300-330 degrees. MVFR cigs likely with sct -shsn over the western airspace. Decreasing wind Saturday night.

Sun...Breezy with a rain shower possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHGR HAGERSTOWN RGNLRICHARD A HENSON FLD,MD 12 sm71 minSSE 0610 smClear46°F25°F42%30.35
Link to 5 minute data for KHGR


Wind History from HGR
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Tide / Current for Chain Bridge, D.C.
   
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Chain Bridge
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Tue -- 05:00 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:27 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:49 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.4
2
am
1
3
am
1.6
4
am
2.1
5
am
2.4
6
am
2.4
7
am
2
8
am
1.5
9
am
1
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
1
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
2.3
5
pm
2.6
6
pm
2.7
7
pm
2.5
8
pm
2.1
9
pm
1.6
10
pm
1.2
11
pm
0.7



Tide / Current for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
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Tue -- 04:59 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:22 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:44 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet
12
am
0.2
1
am
0.5
2
am
1
3
am
1.6
4
am
2.1
5
am
2.4
6
am
2.3
7
am
1.9
8
am
1.4
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0.5
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
2.3
5
pm
2.6
6
pm
2.7
7
pm
2.4
8
pm
2
9
pm
1.6
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
0.7




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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