Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Valley, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure continues to build across the region this evening cresting over the area later tonight. Forecast on track, just some minor tweaks made to the grids. Just some passing high clouds expected for tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the Poconos and NW NJ to readings around 50 across the Philly metro and Delmarva peninsula. A light onshore flow will continue for most of the night, though periods of calm winds are expected.

For Monday, the high pressure area will be offshore by morning and surface winds will have veered to East or Southeast behind it. Low clouds will advance from west to east across the area during the morning as warm air advection increases over the area. There should be breaks in the clouds however with partly sunny skies expected by afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 50s/low 60s up north and mid 60s for Delmarva and metro Philadelphia areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Cold front approaches from the west Monday night and crosses the area Tuesday. Marine layer will remain entrenched ahead of it, so not looking at more than showers with the front, especially since most forcing stays north and timing is pretty late at night into the early morning Tuesday. However, guidance has become a bit more confident in at least seeing a little rain, so have increased POPs to low-end likely from Philly northward.
Lows mostly in the 50s, near 60 Delmarva and near 50 Poconos/coast.

Front sweeps the marine layer back out to sea on Tuesday, with any lingering showers rapidly ending and clouds breaking for some sun on a gusty northwest wind. However, this will be a well mixed wind with downsloping, so we'll actually warm up by comparison to Monday. Most areas, even the coast, likely reach the 70s, with warmest spots touching 80. Poconos however may only reach the 60s.

High pressure builds in from the northwest behind the front for Tuesday night, with diminishing winds. However, front doesn't make it too far south and we may get clouds developing across the region on the north side, mainly of the mid and high variety. Lows 40s north of Philly, 50s from Philly south.

Wednesday looks like a sunnier day overall with the high helping push the front further south by this point. So have generally mostly sunny in the forecast, but with a colder air mass well- entrenched by this point and lighter winds, it'll be a little cooler than Tuesday. Highs 70s, but not likely to see 80 anywhere, with 60s coast and Poconos.

Wednesday night looks similar to Tuesday night with light winds, but a bit less cloud cover. Lows again 40s north of Philly, 50s from Philly south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure remains in control for Thursday, but shifts east, allowing a bit of warm advection to begin. Highs will tick up a little inland, mid-upper 70s, but with a bit more southeasterly fetch, expect more marine influence, so coastal areas may actually be a little cooler.

Next front then begins to infringe on the area Friday before slowly crossing the region Saturday. Still a bit of uncertainty on timing but have highest POPs overnight Friday into Saturday.
Could be some convective concerns, but the timing issue makes that tricky to determine this far out. For that reason have only included slight chance thunder at this time. Marine layer could also limit instability if that becomes a factor. Highs near 70 ahead of the front Friday rise back to mid 70s Saturday as the front passes, then drop into the 60s as we dry out and cool off behind the front Sunday. Lows Thursday night and Saturday night will be low-mid 50s, while many areas could stay near or above 60 Friday night just ahead of the front.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR. High clouds expected. Winds gradually veering as the night goes on, starting north/northeast tonight, eventually going east/southeasterly by daybreak tomorrow, around 5 kt or so. Expecting a period of light and variable overnight at KACY and KMIV.

Monday...VFR. Increasing amounts of low clouds (bases 040-060)
arriving after dawn from west to east. Southeasterly winds around 10 kt expected for most of the day. Moderate confidence.

Monday Night...A mix of IFR/MVFR CIGs and reduced visibility possible as scattered showers move through overnight. MVFR CIGs look to move in between 01z-04z. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook...
VFR should prevail Tuesday through Thursday night. Additional intervals of sub-VFR may return Friday with passing showers.

MARINE
High pressure will continue to build across the waters tonight and then move to the east Monday. This will result in a continuation of fair weather through these periods. North winds this evening gradually veering to East overnight and then Southeast Monday. Winds around 10 kt tonight and tomorrow morning. Later Monday, winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. sub- SCA conditions thru Monday.

Outlook...
Conditions should generally remain below SCA criteria on the waters Monday night through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Fire weather concerns will diminish on Monday as a cooler marine layer brings higher humidity and cooler temperatures.
Fire weather concerns may return for Tuesday with RH's down near 30 percent and winds gusting up to 30 mph, depending on just how much rain falls Monday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.