Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ware, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 11:01 PM EST (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:21PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201912121430;;217171 Fzus51 Kphi 120249 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 949 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-121430- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 949 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt late this evening, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 949 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build into the region from the midwest through the overnight, then move offshore by Thursday evening. By Friday evening, another area of low pressure will track across the southeast and into the mid-atlantic, exiting the region by Saturday night. Another storm system will move up the east coast of the united states Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waretown CDP, NJ
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location: 39.81, -74.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 120052 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 752 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the region from the Midwest through the overnight, then move offshore by Thursday evening. By Friday, another area of low pressure will track across the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic, exiting the region by Saturday night. A brief area of high pressure will move across the region before another strong storm system moves up the coast from the Southeasterly next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. Drier air is continuing to filter into the region this afternoon and consequently expect that clouds will continue to thin out as we head into the evening, with the diurnal stratocumulus, that formed in the breaks behind the primary cloud shield, also clearing out after sunset. A weak low passing through Quebec this evening will drive a weak cold front through the area this evening. Given a notable lack of moisture this frontal passage should be dry over our area with maybe a few mid-lvl clouds developing over the far NW closer to the mid-lvl trough axis.

Pressure rises behind the front combined with continued cold advection aloft will keep W/NW winds elevated through at least the first half of the overnight period. Consequently leaned a bit on the higher side of guidance for the overnight lows, although there is a chance that winds lighten sufficiently around daybreak for some locations to dip a bit lower than forecast. That being said, given the cold airmass in place it will still likely be a cold night with low to mid 20s over the most of the area, and some teens in the far north.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A very quiet day is expected on Thursday as 1040mb high pressure moves in more or less overhead. Despite mostly sunny skies (apart from occasional cirrus), the cold December airmass (925 temps around -5 to -7C), should keep highs generally in the low to mid 30s (apart from upper 20s in the Poconos and upper 30s to around 40 in Delmarva).

The high will move off to the northeast late Thursday afternoon and the light near-sfc flow will veer a bit more easterly/southeasterly in response. Meanwhile just above the surface will begin to acquire a southerly component, and thus WAA aloft and moisture advection will begin to ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning. Consequently expect we will see some lower clouds begin to move in from S-N Thursday night, which would mostly have the effect of tempering overnight mins (with an atypical diurnal T curve as a result). Went with this idea for the MinT forecast which generally resulted in lows in the mid to upper 20s (a bit warmer in Delmarva a bit colder in the Poconos). However in direct contrast to the situation tonight, it is possible a few locations get a bit colder than forecast early in the overnight period (good radiational cooling in advance of the clouds moving in). Although the NAM and its derivatives want to bring some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle with this moisture surge am not buying this given how dry the antecedent low-lvl airmass will be initially, and the NAM's general (high) moisture bias.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Synoptic overview . high pressure will quickly shift off to the north and east Friday as another strong surface low moves out of the Southeast and up the eastern Appalachians into the mid-Atlantic driven by an amplifying shortwave trough. Given the negative tilt of the trough, this low will quickly shoot northward into the Northeast by Sunday afternoon, with high pressure building into our region in its wake. A secondary amplifying shortwave trough will eject from the Rockies Monday, quickly developing a surface low across the Southeast. This low will build below a strengthening 250 mb jet and move up the coast through Wednesday. In contrast to the previous storm system, the mid and upper-level trough will remain positively tilted, eventually stretching out as the surface low moves toward the Canadian Maritime Provinces.

Dailies . Friday . A mostly dry day in store, with rain moving northeast into the region by afternoon and evening. Highs in the 40s and 50s.

Saturday . An overall crummy day with periods of moderate to heavy rain moving through the region. A low pressure system will track up the southeast coast and up into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will intensify as it pushes northward and will bring rain to the region. The ground is pretty sodden from the rain earlier in the week and with PWATs climbing around 1.0-1.3" on Saturday, we may see some decent rains again and it could be heavy at times. Added the mention of heavy rain into the forecast as it looks clearer that heavy rain will occur within the forecast area. While right now it doesn't look like we will see enough rain to cause any big flooding concerns, there may be some localized issues, especially in areas where there is poor drainage and/or where the leaves may be clogging the storm drains. Highs in the low to upper 50s through the region.

Sunday . clearing conditions as the low moves northeast and out of the area, with clearing skies by the afternoon. It will be breezy though with wind gusts to 20 mph across much of the area and highs will be in the 40s generally.

Monday through Wednesday . the next storm system will quickly shoot into our region Monday. Details are still uncertain regarding this system with model discrepancy between the global models regarding the mid to upper level trough development in the pattern. If the system this weekend brings heavy rain, as is indeed possible, we may have additional flooding concerns. This will be something to monitor in the coming days. Seasonable highs in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening . VFR. A weak cold front is currently approaching the terminals from the west allowing winds to back slightly from the southwest. As the cold front crosses the terminals this evening winds will turn from the northwest. Some transient wind gusts of 15/20 kts will be possible, but forecast soundings generally indicate that the CAA will not be strong enough to prevent the PBL from decoupling. Due to this have left the mention of gusts out of the TAFs for now.

Thursday . VFR conditions will persist with surface high pressure slowly moving offshore. By the afternoon hours high pressure will be far enough east to allow for a return of southerly flow at KRDG/ KABE.

Thursday night . High pressure will be offshore with low level moisture quickly moving onshore from the east. Both the GFS and NAM show stratus moving inland during this time frame. As of current the deck looks to be low end VFR.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR in the morning will slowly give way to MVFR/IFR conditions as rain moves northward into the region. Easterly wind near or below 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys as periods of rain moves through the region. Easterly winds turning southwesterly from 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15/20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR conditions return as a storm system lifts to our north. Breezy with westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots. Low confidence.

Monday . Generally VFR with west-northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. Tonight into Thursday morning: After a lull in SCA conditions this afternoon, a cold front will pass through the waters this evening which should result in another period of gusty NW winds. Gusts could approach or exceed 30 kts over the northern ocean areas, while gusts will generally be in the 20-25 kt range. Despite fairly marginal gusts decided to add Delaware Bay to the SCA in effect until 11Z Thursday, since water temps are in the mid 40s allowing for relatively efficient momentum transfer with some of the stronger winds aloft.

Thursday and Thursday night: Winds will relax through the day on Thursday and gradually veer through the day ultimately becoming more easterly-southeasterly by Friday morning. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through the period.

Outlook .

Friday . Elevated winds and seas, but conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria with easterly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots. Seas from 3 to 5 feet.

Saturday . Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory Criteria by the afternoon with gusts nearing 25 knots out of the southwest. Seas from 5 to 7 feet.

Sunday . Gale force gusts possible out of the west from 30 to 35 knots through the afternoon. Seas ranging from 4 to 6 feet.

Monday . SCA conditions possible in the early morning with northwesterly winds from 20 to 25 knots dropping below criteria into the afternoon with northwesterly wind from 10 to 15 knots. Seas from 1 to 3 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Carr Short Term . Carr Long Term . Davis Aviation . Haines Marine . Carr/Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi31 min 51°F6 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 24 mi91 min W 4.1 32°F 1032 hPa20°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 34 mi43 min 34°F 46°F1032.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi43 min NW 8 G 11 33°F 42°F1032.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi85 min WNW 8 G 16 33°F 41°F1031.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 46 mi31 min WNW 27 G 35 36°F 1030.9 hPa21°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 46 mi43 min WNW 27 G 31 35°F 44°F1031.4 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi43 min 34°F 1032.9 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi65 minWNW 810.00 miFair30°F21°F69%1031.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi61 minWNW 1110.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1031.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Oyster Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:14 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:18 AM EST     0.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:04 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:47 PM EST     0.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.10-000.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.10.10-000.10.10.20.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:44 AM EST     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     2.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:24 PM EST     -2.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     2.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.1-2.2-1.6-0.31.12.22.62.21.40.4-0.6-1.5-2.3-2.8-2.7-1.8-0.40.91.821.50.7-0.2-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.