Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

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Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:21PM Monday July 22, 2019 7:16 PM EDT (23:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:40PMMoonset 11:00AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201907231015;;477663 Fzus51 Kphi 222228 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 628 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-231015- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 628 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 538 in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt early this evening, then 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers with tstms likely this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 628 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will slowly make its way offshore through Tuesday, with multiple waves of low pressure riding along it. By Wednesday, that front should push further offshore, with high pressure building in behind it. This large area of high pressure will continue to influence our weather from the middle of this week into the weekend and through beginning of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
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location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 222235
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
635 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly make its way offshore through Tuesday, with
multiple waves of low pressure riding along it. By Wednesday, that
front should push further offshore, with high pressure building in
behind it. This large area of high pressure will continue to
influence our weather from the middle of this week into the weekend
and through beginning of next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
630 pm update... Damaging storms have been moving through eastern
pa, parts of the delmarva, and nj but these will be off the
coast within the next couple hours. Heat advisory is cancelled
as these storms have cooled temps.

Previous discussion...

330 pm update...

severe weather and flash flooding threat continues into this
evening...

storms beginning to pop over eastern pa into northern nj in
unstable environment. At the surface, low pressure beginning to
develop over eastern pa along a diffuse frontal boundary while
in the upper levels shortwave energy associated with deepening
upper level trough is approaching from the west.

As we head through the late afternoon into early this evening,
expect convection to become better organized... Likely taking the
form of a line or line segments moving into our eastern pa zones and
affecting the i-95 corridor and points S E over nj and the
delmarva during roughly the 5-8 pm time frame. Given ml capes
of 1500-2000 j kg with effective bulk shear near 35 knots this
should allow for line to sustain itself and produce a good
potential for severe weather. Damaging winds look to be the
biggest threat given modest wind field aloft and steep low level
lapse rates which should help to aid in bringing downdrafts to
the surface. Do still have concerns that there could be
potential for isolate tornadoes with the most likely spot for
this being near and north of the front over portions of northern
nj along the i-78 i- 80 corridor where winds will be more
backed in the low levels. This heightened risk should also
extend west into adjacent portion of eastern pa. Finally,
flooding flash flooding remains a threat given very high pwats
though the one mitigating factor is that storms should be fast
moving.

By the mid evening, first round of convection should be off to the
east with a relative lull in activity likely as low pressure moves
east across long island. However the problem is that the trailing
front will get hung up across the area with upper level trough still
lagging off to the west over the ohio valley. And then by the late
evening into the overnight period (11pm - 2am) as more shortwave
energy arrives this should result in another wave developing along
the front with additional widespread showers and possible
embedded storms moving in from the sw. At this time front should
be hung up right around the i-95 corridor and it's this area we
are particularly concerned about for potentially heavy
showers storms overnight as pwats will remain very high with
some elevated instability to work with. Thus, flooding flash
flooding still a threat especially if heavy rain hits areas
that happen to have also gotten hard hit this evening. Severe
weather threat by this time will be lower though. It will still
be another fairly warm and muggy night near and south of the
front across the urban corridor and points S E with lows still
only getting down to the low 70s with high dew points as well.

It will be cooler north of here though with lows in the 60s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
By Tuesday morning, second wave of low pressure will be slowly
moving off the new jersey coast and this will help to gradually
drag the front farther south finally. As such, expect
rain showers continuing into the early morning at least along
and south of the i-95 corridor with this activity gradually
ending from north to south through the late morning into the
afternoon with the frontal passage. Any of this additional rain
occuring Tuesday should not be as heavy with diminishing
instability but could still exacerbate any flooding issues that
could be ongoing from earlier. Not expecting much Sun as area
remains under influence of deep upper trough to the west and
front only lingers just off the coast. Highs will generally be
in the mid to upper 70s and with dew points in the 60s it will
certainly feel much more comfortable!
forecast becomes a little tricky for late day Tuesday into
Tuesday night as yet one more wave may try to develop along
front just off the coast and this could bring in another round
of rain showers... Mainly for coastal areas. It shouldn't be
particularly heavy though.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Overview...

an extended stretch of mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected
for most of this week and into the weekend. At upper levels, a
lingering trough will remain over the east from Wednesday into
Thursday. This trough will weaken and shift southward through the
week as a ridge moves out of the great lakes and builds into
southern canada and new england. At the surface, a broad region of
high pressure will exist downstream the ridge and upstream the
trough. This high will start the midweek period over the midwest,
and as the upper level features slowly shift, the high will
gradually make its way eastward. It will not crest over our region
until the weekend. Even by early next week, we will probably
continue to feel the influence of this high. The resulting sensible
weather is something we really have not seen much of this year:
several consecutive days (at least) of dry and quiet weather.

Temperatures also look near normal for this period, as we are
between cooler than normal air to the south associated with the
lingering trough, and much warmer than normal air that will
build in with the ridge well to our north.

Dailies...

Wednesday... Our early week frontal system will still be departing
on Wednesday, and it looks like considerable cloud cover and
possibly some light showers may linger towards the coast especially
in the morning. As a wave of low pressure moves offshore, some
guidance is even hinting at an inverted-trough like feature which
could throw some light showers back into coastal nj. However, the
trend for the day will be clearing skies and drier weather,
especially to the west. Temperatures only getting into the low 80s
in most areas with the cooler air behind the front.

Wednesday night-Saturday... Dry and quiet. A very gradual warming
trend in 850mb temperatures should yield a slow warming trend at the
surface, with each day generally a degree or two warmer than the
previous but no warmer than the upper 80s by Saturday. Dew points
should remain comfortable also, with those also showing just a slow
uptrend heading towards the weekend but remaining well away from
the oppressive territory we have seen.

Sunday-Monday... Temperatures should continue coming up slowly
during this period, with some 90s potentially returning to the
picture. Humidity will also continue to creep up, but . A weak
frontal system may approach on Sunday, with possibly some showers up
north. However, high pressure still looks to be the dominant feature
into early next week, and we will likely have to wait until later in
the week to see any more robust frontal systems.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through 0z... Strong to severe storms likely to affect most
terminals during the 20z to 0z time frame. Expect restrictions
to ifr or lower with wind gusts of 35-40+ knots possible.

Tonight... First round of storms should be off the coast by 0z
but additional rounds of showers with possible storms likely
for the late evening into the overnight with CIGS to at least
MVFR likely by this time to even ifr possible.

Tuesday... Rain showers should be tapering off but MVFR
restrictions likely to continue for most sites through most of
the morning if not into the early afternoon in some places.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR, except MVFR possible at least through the
morning at miv and acy. Winds north-northeast at 5 to 10 kt.

Wednesday night-Saturday... An extended period of quiet,VFR
conditions is expected. Winds mainly light and variable, favoring
light easterly flow if anything.

Marine
Marginal SCA conditions at times for the coastal waters as low
pressure develops over pa then moves off the coast. Bigger
story will likely be strong to severe storms moving over the
coastal waters (as well as the delaware bay) this evening and
these could produce wind gusts of 40-50 knots in the strongest
storms. These should be east of the waters by late evening.

For Tuesday, SCA level seas likely to continue most of the
morning even as winds diminish so SCA runs until noon.

Conditions sub SCA by Tuesday night but more rain showers
possible with reduced visibilities as front will be stalled over
coastal waters.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Saturday... Winds and seas are expected to remain below
sca criteria. 3 to 4 foot seas Wednesday diminish to mainly 2 to 3
feet for the remainder of the period.

Rip currents...

an increasing southerly wind fetch and building waves are
expected to create a moderate risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents today along the new jersey shore. The
delaware coastline is expected to have a low risk or the
development of dangerous rip currents today.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch through Tuesday morning for paz054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch through Tuesday morning for njz001-007>010-
012>027.

De... Flash flood watch through Tuesday morning for dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch through Tuesday morning for mdz008-012-015-
019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... O'brien
aviation... Fitzsimmons o'brien
marine... Fitzsimmons o'brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi46 min 81°F5 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi46 min SSW 6 77°F 1006 hPa67°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi46 min 77°F 73°F1006.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi46 min WNW 11 G 18 86°F1007.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi46 min W 12 G 20 84°F1006.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi36 min SSW 21 G 27 81°F 77°F1004 hPa76°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi46 min NNW 25 G 32 79°F 85°F1004.8 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi20 minW 710.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain74°F73°F100%1007.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi64 minW 25 G 5010.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain Squalls and Windy75°F70°F84%1007.1 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi20 minWSW 10 G 1810.00 miLight Rain72°F69°F91%1007 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW4SW5W4N9NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW7W3CalmCalmSE5S8SE8SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Stouts Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:13 AM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.1000.10.10.20.20.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:40 AM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:41 PM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:56 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.10.2-0.7-1.4-1.9-2.1-2-1.2-0.10.91.61.71.20.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.2-0.20.81.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.