Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Echelon, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A low level trough is situated just west of the region. This trough, combined with deep northwest flow, could result in isolated snow showers moving into areas north and west of the Fall line through late tonight. It is unlikely that any area in our region will see accumulating snow, thus, expect more flurries than anything else.

The center of the low will cross eastward overnight (staying well north of our region), and will be northeast of our region by daybreak on Sunday. As it does so, a weak warm front will lift through our region, ushering in a shift to southwesterly flow in the low levels and, consequently warm air and moisture advection. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees higher than on Saturday.

This could set the stage for a very saturated boundary layer on Sunday night. That being said, expect increasing clouds ahead of the Monday system should preclude any widespread fog/freezing fog development on Sunday night. However, will be watching trends closely as the warm front arrives.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The pattern changes to a milder one, however that also comes with some precipitation.

The pattern is active though and therefore the next change is a strong upper-level trough moving across the Midwest and northern Plains Monday. This feature will then work its way slowly south and eastward. A plume of deepening moisture and forcing for ascent results in an expanding area of rain from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf coast states Sunday night. This moisture surge with precipitable water values increasing to around an inch, and ascent arrives in our area on Monday with a period of rain. Rainfall looks to begin after daybreak Monday, with periods of showers through the day. The extent of showers may be weakening with time as the parent low occludes across the upper Great Lakes region, although a weak surface low may develop in our vicinity as an initial weakening front arrives. The overall rainfall amounts with this system look to be on the lighter side especially as the system may be quick moving, however any precipitation is certainly needed across our region.
Amounts generally will be around a tenth to half an inch with the lower totals within that range coming for areas south of Philadelphia, and the higher end coming for areas north of the metro area. Temperatures on Monday should be a little cooler than Sunday given the cloud cover and some rain, though it will not be as cold Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Summary...Milder along with a soaking mid-week rain followed by colder air to end the week.

Synoptic Overview...As an upper-level trough shifts eastward from south-central Canada to the southern Plains Tuesday, surface high pressure remains centered in the western Atlantic. The upper-level trough may be slow to arrive into the East as it potentially amplifies even more. Low pressure tracks north of the Great Lakes Tuesday then toward northern New England during Wednesday. A warm front should be lurking just to our north Tuesday, then a strong cold front moves through later Wednesday. High pressure then starts to build in later Thursday and especially Friday.

For Tuesday...An upper-level trough gradually shifts eastward and closer to the East Coast and this will maintain southerly flow south of a warm front. Low-level warm air advection ahead of an advancing cold front tied to low pressure near or north of the Great Lakes may support some showers, however with our area mainly being within the warm sector may keep a period of rain-free conditions through most of the day. As this system gets closer especially in the late afternoon/early evening into the overnight hours, some forcing for ascent begins to overspread our area from the west and therefore rain chances will increase. Our region will continue to be within a milder regime and therefore no wintry precipitation is expected through Tuesday Night. Temperatures are forecast to be above average, with high temperatures well into the 50s to even some low 60s across the coastal plain and a bit cooler north and west of I-95.

For Wednesday and Thursday...An amplifying upper-level trough slowly arrives from the west along with the passage of a stronger cold front. Our sensible weather will be driven by the timing of the trough and the more organized forcing for ascent into our region. A milder air mass should still be in place Wednesday with high temperatures well into the 50s especially from the I-95 corridor on south and east, with even some 60s possible. A period of rain looks to occur Wednesday ahead of and with the cold front. As the front shifts farther east Wednesday night into Thursday, colder air arrives starts to arrive with temperatures getting back to at or below average on Thursday. Guidance overall showing deep southerly flow with increased moisture ahead of the cold front, and therefore a period of heavier rain is possible. This rain will be beneficial given the ongoing severe to extreme drought. Depending on the timing of the front and developing cold air advection, some snow or rain changing to snow is possible Wednesday night into early Thursday before ending, primarily along and north of I-80. The chance of this occurring looks to be low at this time as some guidance tends to hold to much more moisture back into the cold air with these types of synoptic setups. A west to northwest breeze will also increase during Thursday adding a chill factor.

For Friday...The upper-level trough is forecast to be lifting out of the East with the flow backing more westerly. This results in strong surface high pressure building our area from the southwest with much less wind. High temperatures are forecast to be at or below average.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Isolated snow showers are possible especially near KABE (but also possible near KRDG and KTTN) through 09Z. However, any impacts should be brief, and unlikely to get lower than MVFR. Winds will favor westerly, but start to shift to more southwesterly through the overnight. Wind speeds around 10 to 15 kt.

Sunday...VFR expected. SW or W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, especially for KABE and KRDG.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...VFR likely. However, there is a small chance (10%) for fog to develop if clouds don't build in first on Sunday night.

Monday through Monday Night.. MVFR/IFR conditions expected with periods of rain and low clouds.

Tuesday...Primarily VFR.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...sub-VFR conditions expected (100%)
with periods of rain.

MARINE
Winds are in a temporary lull below 25 kt. Winds should increase again late this evening, reaching Small Craft Advisory near or after 10 PM. SCA conditions are expected to continue through Sunday afternoon.

Winds should diminish late Sunday afternoon and stay below SCA criteria through the remainder of Sunday night.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Periods of rain expected on Monday.

Tuesday Night...SCA conditions possible late (40-50%) as gusts approach 25 kt.

Wednesday...SCA conditions expected (100%) with 25-30 kt wind gusts and 5 to 7 foot seas.

Wednesday Night...SCA conditions expected (100%) with gales possible (40-50%).

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455.