Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Echelon, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:36PM Sunday December 8, 2019 9:46 PM EST (02:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 834 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of rain late this evening. Rain likely after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late in the morning, then 2 ft or less early in the afternoon, then around 3 ft late. Rain.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 834 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will lift through the region Monday as an area of low pressure tracks through the great lakes. A cold front associated with that low will then approach and cross the region Tuesday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the front will likely affect the mid-atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong high pressure will build in Thursday and into Friday. Another low pressure system may approach the region next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Echelon, NJ
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location: 39.84, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 090222 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 920 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift through the region Monday as an area of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with that low will then approach and cross the region Tuesday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the front will likely affect the mid-Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong high pressure will build in Thursday and into Friday. Another low pressure system may approach the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/.

Clouds will continue to lower and thicken over the region overnight. Temperatures have reached their mins this evening and will remain nearly steady or slowly rise overnight as clouds and precipitation move into the region. Light rain and drizzle will begin to overspread the region from south to north well after midnight, becoming a steady rain by daybreak. Winds will remain light.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/.

Things are not shaping up to be the best weather day Monday as low pressure to our west moves closer toward the mid-Atlantic and southerly flow ahead of the system draws moister air into the region. An initial vorticity impulse along the warm front will lead to an initial round of moderate rainfall across the region through the morning hours, especially from I-95 and points east. Conditions may turn a little more showery into the afternoon before a broader area of steady rain moves eastward from central Pennsylvania. At this point, all rain is forecast for the initial portion of this system. The one uplifting aspect is that the highs will trend much warmer tomorrow, reaching into the 50s and 60s across the region (upper 40s across the Poconos). Southerly winds will also begin to trend upwards with gusts from 20-25 mph possible by the evening and into the overnight hours. Total rainfall through this period is expected to near an inch, but given the extended duration, this is not expected to result in any more than localized nuisance flooding.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Tuesday . As mentioned by the previous shift, we should start the day in the warm sector. However, some guidance trended faster with the front (it may now cross our region mid day, and be off shore as early as mid afternoon), which brings uncertainty into how long we will be in the dry slot on Tuesday morning. However, I am always a bit cautious of a front crossing during the middle of the day when the mid and upper level trough lags so far behind the front at the surface. Therefore, I made few changes to the temperatures and PoPs during the day on Tuesday. Even if the front does arrive by mid day, expect any precipitation (even late Tuesday afternoon) to be all rain.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . Still considerable uncertainty through this period. The front should progress further off shore, but the mid and upper level trough digs in closer to the region, so most guidance depicts precipitation continuing overnight and through much of the day on Wednesday. Without significant cyclogensis just off shore, it would be difficult to get that much precipitation behind the front in this kind of pattern as we should have persistent dry air advection behind the front. If we do have precipitation into Wednesday morning thanks to significant cold air advection we should see precipitation change over to snow mostly north and west of the fall line, and a rain/snow mix along the coastal plains. As mentioned by the previous shift, even if it does happen, it will likely be little more than a nuisance snow, with the possible exception of northwest NJ and the southern Poconos which could see a few inches of accumulation. Though snow totals did increase a bit, this is not the result of major changes in the forecast, rather, the forecast is now incorporating snow amounts during the day Wednesday in addition to Tuesday night.

Thursday . Dry and cold as strong (~1040 mb) high pressure builds in from the west. Generally expect highs to only top out in the low to mid 30s based on 925mb (approximately the top of the mixed layer) temps of -6 to -9C. Given the dry airmass and light winds near the center of the high left Thursday's lows on the lower end of guidance (ranging from low teens up north to the mid 20s over Delmarva, with teens possible in the colder spots of southern/central NJ as well).

Friday . The high will shift to our northeast on Friday, with a warmer and moister east-southeast flow developing over the area. Generally expect dry weather, although the Canadian attempts to bring a southern-stream coastal low through the area in the afternoon, while the GFS attempts to initiate some overunning precipitation Friday afternoon. Given that it will likely take some time for the lower-lvls to moisten suspect that initiating precipitation Friday afternoon is a bit too fast so generally went Slight Chc PoPs. Highs will run about 10 degrees warmer than Thursday with greater warming felt near the coast due to the onshore flow.

Friday night into Saturday . Likely will see rain during this period, however the nature/forcing for this precipitation is currently unclear. The GFS keeps the primary sfc. low inland, and brings it through the Great Lakes late Saturday, while the EC indicates the coastal low will become the primary low and brings it through our area on Saturday (the Canadian depicts this low passing Friday night). Consequently whether we get an warm advective/shortwave driven precipitation event (GFS) or a low- lvl confluence /synoptic-lift driven precipitation event (EC) is unknown. Regardless we should be fairly warm on Saturday with highs generally in the 50s.

Saturday night/Sunday . Given model uncertainties from previous period, the forecast in this period is naturally uncertain. That being said the current guidance suite puts us post-frontal by Sunday with some drying and cooling (although the postfrontal airmass does not seem particularly cold) indicated in the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR early into the nighttime hours, with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels after 05-06Z from south to north. Rain and drizzle to move into the region shortly after, turning into a steady rain by sunrise/12Z. Light and variable wind will turn south-southeasterly by daybreak to 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday and Monday night . MVFR with periods of IFR conditions possible with a mostly steady moderate rain all day. A few breaks are possible with conditions turning more showery into the late afternoon and evening. Southerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts from 20 to 30 knots possible will turn more southwesterly into Monday night. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . There may be a brief period of VFR conditions Tuesday morning, but mostly MVFR or even IFR conditions are likely Tuesday afternoon and night. Southwesterly winds abruptly shifting to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon 10 to 15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt especially Tuesday afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . The day will likely start with widespread MVFR or even IFR conditions, but by afternoon, conditions should be gradually improving to VFR. Westerly winds near 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night-Thursday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming northerly on Thursday. High Confidence.

Thursday night-Friday . Generally VFR. Light northeasterly winds Thursday night veering more easterly (around 5kts) on Friday. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Conditions on the marine zones are expected to deteriorate into tonight with Small Craft Advisory criteria after 22Z with with southerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots across the northern two Atlantic zones. Wind gusts will remain near or below 20 knots across the rest of the Atlantic zones and across the Delaware Bay. Winds will lesson early Monday before picking back up Monday afternoon and into the overnight with advisory level gusts out of the south across the Atlantic zones. Gale force gusts may be possible by Tuesday morning, however confidence is not particularly high yet.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . SCA conditions likely especially on the coastal waters through the day Tuesday with southwesterly winds shifting northwesterly in the afternoon, and gusts up to 30 kt possible. Tuesday night, winds and seas should gradually diminish below SCA criteria.

Wednesday . Conditions should stay below SCA criteria, though some westerly gusts above 20 kt are possible.

Thursday . Sub SCA conditions expected with northerly- northeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts.

Friday . Seas potentially increasing above SCA criteria Friday PM but uncertainty is high. Winds becoming easterly and gusting 15-20 kts by Friday afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ450>452.



Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Davis/Franklin Short Term . Davis Long Term . Carr/Johnson Aviation . Franklin Marine . Carr/Davis/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 10 mi47 min 40°F 41°F1028 hPa (-1.0)
BDSP1 11 mi47 min 38°F 1028.7 hPa (-0.9)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi71 min Calm G 1 35°F 38°F1028.6 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 22 mi47 min 41°F 43°F1028 hPa (-1.0)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 24 mi47 min SE 1 G 1.9 35°F 38°F1029 hPa (-0.9)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 35 mi77 min Calm 32°F 1029 hPa31°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi47 min Calm G 2.9 42°F 46°F1028.5 hPa (-0.7)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi47 min 42°F 44°F1027.9 hPa (-0.7)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi47 min E 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 45°F1028.9 hPa (-0.5)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 45 mi47 min 47°F 44°F1029 hPa (-1.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi47 min S 1 G 1.9 39°F 42°F1028.7 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ11 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F28°F85%1028.8 hPa
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA14 mi53 minESE 310.00 miOvercast39°F28°F67%1028.6 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA17 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1029 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVAY

Wind History from VAY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5453S5SE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN11N10N6N4N10NW5N5N4NW5N4N6N8N9N11N7N6N8N8NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Westville, Rt. 47 bridge, Big Timber Creek, New Jersey
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Westville
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Sun -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:10 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EST     5.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:44 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:19 PM EST     5.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.52.41.50.70.20.623.34.45.35.75.34.33.32.31.40.60.31.22.73.84.75.3

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:16 AM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:39 AM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:34 AM EST     1.01 knots Min Flood
Sun -- 09:36 AM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:26 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:16 PM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:49 PM EST     -1.62 knots Min Ebb
Sun -- 04:02 PM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:35 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:14 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:52 PM EST     1.00 knots Min Flood
Sun -- 09:58 PM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.5-1.4-1.1-00.91.1110.4-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.5-0.70.5111.10.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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