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FXUS61 KILN 022008 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 308 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of low pressure systems will bring occasional chances for showers through the first part of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Surface low pressure is currently centered over southern Lake Erie with a cold front trailing down across far eastern portions of our fa. This front will stall out heading into this evening as a developing wave of low pressure over the eastern Tennessee Valley rides north along it. As the wave rides up along the front, shower activity will spread north into southeast portions of our area tonight. Meanwhile, mid level energy will eject northeast out of a trough moving into the the mid Mississippi Valley overnight. This could lead to some lower end chances for showers across mainly our northwestern areas late tonight. Overnight lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The mid level trough will pivot out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the lower Great lakes Sunday into Sunday night. As it does, more widespread shower activity will spread into western portions of the area Sunday morning and then lift northeast heading into the afternoon. Will range pops on Sunday from categorical across our northwest to just lower end chance across our far south and southeast. Pcpn chances will then taper off from southwest to northeast through Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening as we get on the backside of the short wave. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weakening upper level trough crossing east through the Ohio Valley on Monday will have most of the shortwave energy producing a chance of rain in the far southern reaches of the CWA and exiting by late day in the eastern CWA.

A more potent longwave trough will cross into the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, ending any rainfall overnight as high pressure builds behind the upper trough.

Zonal northwest flow on Thursday will become westerly as a weak upper ridge passes. As this occurs, southerly flow returns to the Ohio Valley and begins a warming trend with temperatures nicely above normal through the end of the forecast.

At the end of the forecast, a strong low pressure system is progged to enter from the west on Saturday. Aside from increased pops on day 7, timing, position, and strength of the system remains in question and will be resolved in future forecasts.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A broken MVFR deck has developed across the area early this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front that is pushing through the region. There are some hints that some of these clouds may break up through late afternoon into early this evening leading to a period of VFR conditions. However, the combination of a developing surface low riding northeast along the front and some mid level energy moving into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight into Sunday, will likely lead to some redevelopment of MVFR cigs as we head into tonight and into the day on Sunday. These will also be accompanied by a chance of showers and the potential for some MVFR vsbys, primarily during the later portions of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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