Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Gate, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:39PM Thursday February 20, 2020 1:06 PM EST (18:06 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 3:46PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1214 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight est tonight through Friday morning...
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft early, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 4 to 6 ft early in the evening. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft late. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 1214 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure located over the upper midwest will continue to slowly shift south and east over the next few days, with the center of the high finally passing off the carolina coast on Sunday. Low pressure is expected to progress from the middle mississippi river valley on Monday to the northeastern states on Tuesday. Another area of low pressure may trail behind this low and impact the area towards the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Gate borough, NJ
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location: 39.87, -74.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 201442 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 942 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure located over the Upper Midwest will continue to slowly shift south and east over the next few days, with the center of the high finally passing off the Carolina coast on Sunday. Low pressure is expected to progress from the middle Mississippi River Valley on Monday to the northeastern states on Tuesday. Another area of low pressure may trail behind this low and impact the area towards the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. High clouds, along with some mid level clouds, are expected for today in association with a 170+ knot upper level jet over our region.

A cold front approaching from the north is expected to drop into the Poconos, the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey this afternoon. The boundary may be accompanied by some snow flurries.

Low pressure will drift northeastward off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina today. The northern edge of the precipitation shield associated with the low may begin to approach southern Delaware late in the day.

A light north to northwest wind is anticipated for today. Highs should favor the upper 30s and lower 40s in our region, with readings not getting above the freezing mark in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. The cold front will continue to push through the region for the first half of the overnight period, while the approaching shortwave should begin to lift the low to our south out to sea. Drier air filtering in behind the front should result in clearing skies from N-S with mostly clear skies expected by Friday morning. Any light precipitation either associated with the front or the southern low should clear the area by midnight.

Overnight lows will be a bit challenging as this will be a situation where the winds will remain somewhat elevated behind the front, but at the same time there will be fairly strong cold advection. Consequently went towards the mean of guidance which results in a fairly cool night with lows bottoming out in the upper teens to lower 20s by Friday morning, but temperatures could be locally colder in prone spots (e.g. Pine Barrens, PA valleys) if we decouple.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Friday through Sunday . The start of the extended will be quite uneventful as the expansive Central US High very slowly drifts southeastwards and also weakens. At upper levels the area will remain displaced from both the southern and northern streams which will further support the tranquil weather . and even clouds will be hard to come by.

Friday will remain on the cool side with highs generally only in the mid to upper 30s but we will begin to warm up quickly over the weekend as the low-lvl flow backs to more westerly and then southwesterly. Saturday's highs should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while Sunday's highs will generally be in the low to mid 50s. These temperatures combined with abundant sunshine should make for a very nice weekend.

Monday through Wednesday . The High will have finally shifted offshore by Monday and some moisture will start to return as southerly flow increases. Guidance has slowed a bit with the arrival of the next storm system (with some lingering discrepancies among individual models), delaying it until Monday night or Tuesday. The thermal profiles do not support much chance of significant wintry precipitation with this system so at the moment think this will be primarily a rain event (with the most likely time for steady rain being Tuesday). There is the potential for a secondary system Wednesday into Thursday of next week but details are lacking at this time.

Temperatures will likely be quite warm on Monday and Tuesday with highs generally in the 50s (with some potential for 60s even), before cooling off a bit on Wednesday behind the cold front. Of note there is a pretty strong signal in the ensemble guidance for a period of colder temperatures late next week but specific details are naturally lacking.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today . VFR conditions expected with mid and high clouds early, with some lower ceilings (but still VFR) moving in late this afternoon. Winds will generally be NW-N around 5 kts. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with ceilings clearing out through the first half of the night. N/NE winds around 10-15 kts expected.

Outlook .

Friday-Sunday . VFR with North-Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Friday becoming westerly 10 kts on Saturday, and then southwesterly 5-10 kts on Sunday. Winds may become light and variable overnight each day. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of rain in the afternoon. South wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 ft through most of the day with northerly winds 5-15 kts.

Behind a cold front this evening northerly winds should increase to sustained 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30kts while seas will increase to 4-6 ft by Friday morning.

Outlook .

Friday . SCA conditions are expected through the early afternoon Friday after which time winds and seas should dip below SCA criteria.

Friday night through Monday . Sub-SCA conditions expected through the period with seas generally running 2-3 ft and gusts 20 kts or less.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Friday for ANZ430-431-450-451.



Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Carr Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr Marine . Carr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi36 min 44°F2 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi96 min NNW 4.1 35°F 1033 hPa13°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi54 min 33°F 40°F1031.8 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 38 mi54 min 34°F 43°F1031.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi90 min 32°F 39°F1031.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi36 min W 9.7 G 14 32°F 1031 hPa15°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi48 min 33°F 41°F1031.4 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi48 min 34°F 1031.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ8 mi70 minNW 610.00 miFair35°F12°F40%1031.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi66 minVar 310.00 miFair34°F12°F40%1030.9 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ21 mi70 minW 610.00 miFair34°F10°F38%1031.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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W6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N9N5NW6NW7
1 day agoSE5SE4SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmW3NW4W4Calm--NW5NW5NW9
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2 days ago3NE3E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4E3E65E4E6E64E6SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Cedar Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:58 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:46 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:41 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM EST     0.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.10.10-000.10.20.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:28 AM EST     2.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:45 AM EST     -2.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:46 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:10 PM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:54 PM EST     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-0.90.31.52.22.21.710.1-0.7-1.6-2.4-2.6-2.1-1.10.11.21.61.510.3-0.4-1.1-1.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.