Wednesday, November13, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Westville, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday November 13, 2019 4:50 AM EST (09:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:49PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 321 Am Est Wed Nov 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft early, then 2 ft or less. A chance of light freezing spray early this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ400 321 Am Est Wed Nov 13 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Arctic high pressure will build across our region later today into tonight, then it shifts offshore during Thursday. A cold front will move through later Friday, then high pressure builds into our area from the northwest and north later Saturday and Sunday. An ocean storm develops off the southeast coast Friday night and slowly moves northeastward over the weekend with it currently looking to remain to the south and east of our region, then another storm may develop off the carolina coast early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westville borough, NJ
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location: 39.87, -75.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 130835
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
335 am est Wed nov 13 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will build across our region later today into
tonight, then it shifts offshore during Thursday. A cold front will
move through later Friday, then high pressure builds into our area
from the northwest and north later Saturday and Sunday. An ocean
storm develops off the southeast coast Friday night and slowly moves
northeastward over the weekend with it currently looking to remain
to the south and east of our region, then another storm may develop
off the carolina coast early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure over the midwest will build east today, and will be
centered just east of the appalachians by late afternoon. 850 mb
temps will range from -17c across the southern poconos to -12c to
-13c in delmarva. Quite cold for this time of the year with highs in
the upper 20s to lower 30s in the southern poconos and far northern
new jersey, and otherwise in the mid to upper 30s.

For the morning commute, temperature early this morning are in the
teens and lower 20s, and NW winds will generally range from 10-15
mph. As a result, the wind chill will be quite low this morning,
ranging from zero to 10 below in the southern poconos to the single
digits across southeast pennsylvania and most of new jersey to the
teens in delmarva.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The center of the high will lift northeast over new jersey early
this evening, and will move into the gulf of maine by daybreak
Thursday. Winds go light and variable, and some high clouds will
begin to move in from the west.

In terms of temperatures, overnight lows may night be quite as
straightforward as it seems they should be. Still quite cold, but
with high pressure lifting to the north, there will be WAA in the
mid levels of the atmosphere. 850 mb temps will rise to -7c in the
southern poconos to around 0c in delmarva. However, with clear skies
and nearly calm winds, at least prior to midnight, strong
radiational cooling is possible for the pine barrens of new jersey,
the southern poconos, and portions of southeast pennsylvania.

Will go with a consensus blend of guidance, and will lower by a
couple of degrees or so. Lows will generally be in the low to mid
teens for most of the region, in the low to mid 20s for the urban
corridor from philadelphia to wilmington and in delmarva.

Should those clouds build in from the west, temperatures should hold
steady, or even rise a bit.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Summary... Very cold with potentially some record lows to start
Thursday, then some moderation of the air mass Thursday
afternoon and especially Friday. A colder air mass then arrives
for Saturday into Sunday before milder air should overtake our
area early next week. A couple of storm systems however look to
track offshore over the weekend and through early next week.

Synoptic overview... A positively tilted upper-level trough from the
great lakes to the central plains Thursday will shift eastward into
Friday. The northern part of this feature looks to get absorbed into
a much stronger trough closed low sliding southeastward from near
hudson bay canada. Meanwhile, energy within a southern stream is
forecast to close off across the gulf coast states Friday then it
gradually shifts off the southeast coast over the weekend. This
system aloft is forecast to develop surface low pressure off the
southeast coast late Friday and it slowly shifts northeastward over
the weekend into early next week. An upstream system should kick the
lead short wave along but reinforce the surface boundary along the
gulf stream. This however may develop another surface low off the
north carolina coast, as it also lifts northeastward in advance of
an amplifying upper-level trough.

For Thursday and Friday... After a very cold start Thursday morning,
some recovery occurs Thursday afternoon with weak warm air advection
(southerly flow) and as high pressure shifts off to the northeast
and east. A short wave trough is forecast to slide eastward from the
great lakes region Thursday to new england Thursday night, with a
clipper system at the surface tagging along with it. This will toss
a weak cold front across our area mainly Friday night. The main warm
air advection and therefore lift is focused well to our north
therefore no precipitation is expected with it as of now. However,
energy diving across the southern states Thursday is forecast to
close off as is nears the southeast coast. This will induce surface
low pressure development along a lingering baroclinic zone. Some
energy and forcing ahead of this feature may try to produce some
light showers Thursday night into Friday across southeastern new
jersey and portions of delmarva. This may be focused near a zone of
increasing warm air advection, a low-level jet and some convergence
near 850 mb. This is less certain though given weaker forcing this
far north, with the main focus farther south closer to the closed
low and developing surface low. For now, kept some slight chance to
chance pops in for portions of the aforementioned area. The thermal
profiles should be warming enough for mainly rain, although this may
have to battle some lingering mid to low level dry air. Given enough
warm air advection, most places should warm to around 50f Friday
afternoon despite more cloud cover.

For Saturday through Tuesday... The model guidance is in pretty good
agreement with the large scale features during this time frame.

There are two features of note, both of which slide across the
southern states. An initial closed low exits off the southeast coast
later in the weekend then may open up some as it lifts east-
northeast and takes surface low pressure with it. While the bulk of
this system should remain far enough offshore to keep much of the
precipitation out of our area, some rain cannot be ruled on at some
point over the weekend. Our area though may remain protected enough
from surface high pressure that may maintain itself near northern
new england with an extension southwestward. This however will
result in a tight pressure gradient as surface low pressure tracks
offshore, and therefore a gusty northeasterly wind is expected
especially closer to the coast. This surface high will result in
another shot of cold air Saturday into Sunday, then some moderating
occurs next week however the onshore flow will probably offset this
some especially closer to the coast and if thicker cloud cover and
some rain occurs. A secondary strong piece of energy may induce
another surface low off the carolina coast during early next week
and that will also track northeastward ahead of a much more
amplified upper-level trough. While the guidance agrees with the
overall setup, the details are less certain and therefore generally
blended the 00z wpc guidance in with continuity.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR skc. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt,
diminishing to less than 10 kt in the late afternoon.

Tonight...VFR. NW winds less than 10 kt, becoming lgt vrb.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR ceilings lower, with perhaps a period of MVFR
ceilings at night mainly at acy and miv. A few rain showers possible
near acy and miv at night. Light and variable winds in the morning
becoming southerly around 5 knots, then light and variable again at
night. Moderate confidence, however low confidence regarding any
MVFR ceilings.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR ceilings. Light and variable winds
becoming northwest around 10 knots during Friday then turning
northerly Friday night, then northeast 10-15 knots with gusts to
around 25 knots Saturday (strongest at acy). Moderate confidence.

Sunday... Areas of MVFR ceilings possible especially closer to the
coast with a chance of some rain. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with
gusts to around 25 knots (strongest at acy to miv). Low confidence.

Marine
Gale warning continues on the ocean waters this morning with 35-40
kt gusts. Gales should end by late morning, and then a SCA will be
needed for the rest of the day. For delaware bay, will convert gale
warning to a small craft advisory for 25-30 kt gusts, and that will
run into early afternoon. Dry weather on tap. Quite cold, with a
chance of freezing spray this morning.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday... The conditions are anticipated to be below
small craft advisory criteria much of the time, however winds
increase Friday night with an advisory probable (gusts could near
gale force closer to daybreak Saturday).

Saturday and Sunday... A period of northeast gale force wind gusts
are possible with rough seas.

Climate
Arctic air in place into Thursday, and this may lead to some
additional record low temperatures. Several climate sites tied
or broke their record low temperature for november 12th just
before midnight.

Here are the record low temperatures for today and Thursday:
climate site nov 13
------------ ------
allentown 18 in 1996
atlantic city 22 in 2001, 1996, and 1995
atl. City marina 24 in 1920
georgetown 21 in 1986
mount pocono 12 in 1911
philadelphia 24 in 1986
reading 21 in 1976
trenton 23 in 1920, 1911
wilmington 18 in 1911
climate site nov 14
------------ ------
allentown 17 in 1986
atlantic city 15 in 1986
atl. City marina 23 in 1874
georgetown 22 in 1986, 1950
mount pocono 5 in 1905
philadelphia 19 in 1986
reading 16 in 1986
trenton 20 in 1905
wilmington 20 in 1986, 1911

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 11 am est this morning for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi57 min 25°F 49°F1025.1 hPa
BDSP1 8 mi57 min 25°F 1025.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi57 min 25°F 52°F1025.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 20 mi75 min NW 6 G 9.9 24°F 45°F1024.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 27 mi57 min NNW 12 G 15 24°F 45°F1025.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 31 mi57 min NW 8.9 G 16 27°F 50°F1026.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 32 mi57 min 26°F 51°F1025.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi57 min N 22 G 26 29°F 54°F1026.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi81 min WNW 4.1 24°F 1025 hPa6°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 43 mi57 min NNW 5.1 G 8 26°F 49°F1026.6 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA7 mi57 minNW 16 G 2010.00 miFair24°F3°F42%1025.9 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA16 mi57 minNW 810.00 miFair24°F5°F44%1025.7 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ16 mi57 minNW 8 G 1510.00 miFair24°F3°F42%1025.2 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA20 mi56 minWNW 710.00 miFair21°F6°F53%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHL

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS4W4W3W43S3S4S7SE3SE7SE6S8S6SW4S6S5S5S8S7SW12
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2 days agoS3S5S4SW7SW9SW10SW12SW10SW8SW7W7SW8SW10SW9SW10SW6S5S4S3CalmCalmE3CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Westville, Rt. 47 bridge, Big Timber Creek, New Jersey
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Westville
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Wed -- 01:58 AM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:49 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:12 PM EST     6.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:27 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.45.25.55.14.13.22.31.50.70.41.43.24.85.76.15.954.13.12.21.20.40.51.9

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Wed -- 02:32 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:50 AM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:19 AM EST     1.60 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:52 PM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:14 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:56 PM EST     1.41 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.5-1.3-0.70.71.61.51.20.7-0.2-1.1-1.5-1.7-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.31

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.