Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cochranville, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:05PM Saturday January 16, 2021 4:26 AM EST (09:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:54AMMoonset 8:52PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 343 Am Est Sat Jan 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of the overnight..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 343 Am Est Sat Jan 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. An upper level will low passes through the waters today with high pressure building across the southern united states through early next week as several disturbances cross the region in northwesterly flow. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cochranville, PA
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location: 39.88, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 160824 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 324 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move across the area this morning. Meanwhile, a low will form over Delmarva and lift along New Jersey and into New England through the morning. Another cold front moves across the region tonight. High pressure returns for the start of the new week, and then a series of weak low pressure systems will pass through the region for the middle and later parts of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Upper-air analysis at 00z indicated a broad upper-level low in the Great Lakes region with a strengthening jet streak from the Gulf Coast northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Difluent midlevel flow downstream of an intense 500-mb jet streak (100+ kt) encompassed much of the Appalachians and Northeast, with strong warm/moist advection in the lee of the higher terrain. Widespread precipitation was occurring in this region, with a band of convective showers along the leading edge of stronger advection now in southern New England. In our area, light to moderate (stratiform) rain was occurring in the regions of broad warm advection and midlevel cyclonic vorticity advection. At the surface, low pressure was in the developing stage near or just off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic and should continue to intensify today. However, this will occur as it progresses quickly northeastward, so precipitation will likely be ending shortly after daybreak across the area. There may be a few breaks in cloud cover, but this will be short-lived as low- level mixing and cold air aloft will generate considerable cloud cover by afternoon.

As the upper low moves through the region through this evening, embedded perturbations within the large-scale trough will likely generate regions of lift and potentially some showers. The best chances of this for our area are in the Poconos, via favorable northwest flow and in central/southern Delmarva, downstream of a potent vort max moving through this afternoon. Impacts in each of these areas should be minimal, but would not be surprised to see some brief reductions in visibility in light snow in the Poconos. Temperatures will likely be warm enough for liquid in Delmarva, but cannot rule out a flurry or two. Chances of measurable precipitation seem quite low, so only slight-chance to chance PoPs appear warranted. Any precipitation should taper off late this evening and tonight, with even some potential for some clearing.

There is little spread in guidance for highs today, so used a consensus blend. The result is highs in the 30s for the Poconos and the 40s to around 50 elsewhere. Lows tonight are a little less certain, as cloud cover and elevated winds may preclude substantial radiational cooling. For now, have temperatures mainly near to slightly below freezing, but would not be surprised if lows end up a little warmer.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A dry period with weak ridging aloft Sunday and a short wave trough sweeping through Monday. Maybe a few flurries far N/W, but not in the grids attm. Seasonable temps with gusty daytime winds with gusts 15 to 25 mph both days.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The last remnants of the large upper low will have past off to the east/northeast by Tue morning with a mostly zonal upper flow across the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Surface high pressure will be to the south but ridging up into our area. This means a dry forecast for Tue and into Wed. Clouds will be increasing Wed however with the next system pushing towards the area. Temperatures will be a little above normal Tue and close to normal Wed.

As the week wears on, the next disturbance moves SE out of the Canadian prairies and turns across the Great Lakes. The GFS has the clipper-like system pushing N of the area later Thu then into New England Thu night/Fri. The low pressure is rather strong, but with a north track, a mostly rain event is foreseen for our region with perhaps some snow at the onset, any maybe some accum snow for the N/W-most areas. The feature is rather disorganized, so just some chc pops were kept in the fcst for Thu/Thu night attm. I'm sure we'll see various solutions as the weekend/early next week wear on. Temperatures look above normal Thu, close to normal Fri, then back to below normal for Sat.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . Quite variable conditions exist across the area, with a region of general VFR near/southeast of PHL quickly deteriorating to IFR/LIFR near/northeast of TTN/PNE. Meanwhile, MVFR/VFR conditions have tended to dominate at RDG/ABE, where rain is generally scattering the lowest cloud bases and rates are high enough to prevent visibility-reducing drizzle. Expect these varying conditions to continue, though there should be some general deterioration in CIGs to MVFR/IFR between 06z and 12z. Winds will be quite erratic but generally near/less than 7 kt. Expect several amendments to the TAFs given the varying/transient conditions across the area.

Saturday . Lingering MVFR in the morning should transition to VFR through the day, probably by late morning or early afternoon in most spots. Winds will become west or west-northwest around 10 kt, with maybe a few gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR with west winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday/Monday . Mostly VFR with transient clouds. A few snow showers far N/W possible. Gusty winds 15 to 25 knots mainly during the daylight hours. Medium confid.

Tuesday/Wed . Mostly VFR. Increasing clouds late Wed. Medium confid.

MARINE. A brief lull in advisory conditions is occurring on the New Jersey coast early this morning, as the stronger winds have moved east of the area. However, seas are expected to build quickly this morning and will likely be near or slightly above 5 feet much of today and tonight. Meanwhile, as winds become more westerly today, speeds will increase to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, with conditions spreading southward with time. Eventually, gusts should exceed criteria on Delaware Bay, likely some time this evening.

A small craft advisory is in effect for the New Jersey coastal waters today and tonight, for the Delaware coastal waters this afternoon and tonight, and for Delaware Bay this evening and tonight.

Rain will continue through the early morning before tapering off by midday. Some visibility restrictions are possible early this morning.

Outlook .

Sunday through Sunday night . SCA flag Sunday will probably be lowered during the evening and winds and seas subside. Fair.

Monday through Wednesday . Winds and seas occasionally rise to SCA criteria. Fair weather expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ452-453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ454-455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . MPS/O'Hara Near Term . CMS Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi57 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 45°F 40°F1001.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 30 mi57 min SE 6 G 7 42°F 31°F1001.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 31 mi57 min 44°F 40°F1001.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 32 mi57 min 44°F 40°F1000.9 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 46 mi57 min 44°F 38°F1001.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 48 mi57 min SW 5.1 G 6 42°F 42°F1001.9 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi57 min 45°F 38°F1001.8 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester County Airport, PA10 mi32 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%1001 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA23 mi34 minNW 126.00 miLight Rain43°F38°F82%1000.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQS

Wind History from MQS (wind in knots)
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1 day ago--CalmN3N5NW6NW5NW5N5NW5W4W4W3N3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm
2 days agoW3W4W43CalmCalmW7W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:47 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:41 PM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.32.11.81.40.90.50.1-0.1-0.10.20.81.21.31.10.80.4-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.40.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland (2)
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Charlestown
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:25 AM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:19 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:47 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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221.81.410.50.1-0.1-0.10.10.50.91.21.10.90.50-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.400.61.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.