Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 9:03 PM   Moonset 5:48 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 736 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 736 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will Wedge into the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Extensions may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. The next substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS61 KCTP 252351 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 751 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will provide dry cool and dry conditions with widespread frost and freeze conditions expected Friday morning.
Clouds will increase late Friday leading to a chance of showers Friday night and into the weekend before it turns much warmer for Sunday and even warmer still for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
The low/cu clouds are dissipating over most of the area as we lose heating. But, weak convergence over the Lower Susq and Laurels is keeping them in place over the last few hours. High clouds continue to stream over the southern tier, too. Sky fcst is right on target for all the reasons mentioned below, so few changes there. NAM and a couple HRRR members actually make spotty, very light precip (DZ?) in the SW. That is not out of the question with SSE flow upsloping into the Laurels. But, it's probably not worthy of PoP > 10pct. The Lower Susq may be spared a widespread frost if the clouds linger longer there longer than expected. But, we'll keep hold of the frost advy at this point.

Prev...
Partial clearing has worked into my southern counties this afternoon with still mostly cloudy conditions over the Laurel Highlands thanks to weak upslope flow and stubborn inversion.
This trend will continue tonight as strong sfc high builds over eastern PA and return (locally upslope) flow arrives over western PA. The result will be another chilly night with better radiative cooling conditions over central and southeast portions of central PA than last night, while upslope cloudiness keeps clouds in play over the southwest. Coordinated another round of Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for tonight where the growing season has begun, with highest confidence for freezes over the NW Mountains. The Lower Susq will radiate efficiently and local cold spots like THV may approach 32F, but feel that most areas of York and Lancaster County will range between 33F and 35F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Friday will be another fair day under the influence of retreating high pressure, with return flow freshening over western areas, and especially the Laurel Highlands. Rain free wx conditions will continue with morning sun mixing with high clouds throughout the day and max temps trending warmer into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Showers along a warm front are likely to move into the western Alleghenies very late Fri night or early Saturday morning based on the latest operational model/ens consensus.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A warm front arriving to the area on Saturday will bring about a period of unsettled weather for the daytime hours on Saturday and Sunday. Guidance does suggest showers will be scattered and will not occur throughout the entire day with lower chances of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some elevated instability will allow for potential thunderstorms on Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

An upper-level ridge is expected to win for the early stages of next week, allowing for drier weather and warmer temps with MaxTs surging through the 70s and perhaps topping 80F across the south on Sunday. The warmest day of the extended period will be Monday as temperatures soar into the 80s areawide.

Precipitation will be tough to come by in the extended period as systems from the Plains will struggle to stay together as they approach central PA. The 7-day precipitation forecasts show very little rainfall across southeast PA through the middle of next week, with the best chances of rain coming on Tuesday as a cold front moves across the area.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure passing north of PA will provide most of Central PA with VFR conditions and light winds tonight. However, lingering low level moisture could potentially result in a period of low cigs/fog across parts of Southern PA around dawn. Current model guidance indicates the odds of reductions are relatively low (<25pct) at AOO, MDT and LNS. However, model soundings and ensemble prob charts support a >50pct chance of MVFR cigs at JST and even ~25pct chance of IFR cigs around dawn.

The threat of low clouds/fog will diminish Friday, as drier air mixes to ground level. However, ensemble prob charts suggest an upsloping southeast flow could potentially result in lingering MVFR cigs across the high terrain of Somerset County through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sat...Scattered shra. IFR cigs possible Central Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns. Isold PM tsra possible.

Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Sct PM tsra impacts possible.

FIRE WEATHER
Fuel moisture may fall below 10% over the next two days. With light winds today, the risk of fire spread remains very low.
However, return flow around departing high pressure on Friday may increase the potential for spread on Friday afternoon.

MinRH this afternoon (Thu) is forecast to drop to 15-25% over the northern half of the area with potential downside to 10%.
MinRH over the southern tier districts along the MD line is forecast between 30-40%. The wind will <10 mph from the north/northeast.

MinRH is forecast to recover a bit Friday afternoon bottoming in the 25-40% range. However, the wind will increase from the south southeast with gusts to 20 mph at times over the higher terrain along the southern Allegheny Plateau.

Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints along with some rain will limit fire weather concerns this weekend.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ004-005-010- 011-017-018.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ019-024>028- 045-046-049>053-056-057-059-063-065-066.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:26 PM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:10 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:33 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:52 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2), Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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