Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Refton, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 6:02PM Friday March 5, 2021 2:50 PM EST (19:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:32AMMoonset 10:26AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1240 Pm Est Fri Mar 5 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1240 Pm Est Fri Mar 5 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will slowly build over the waters through Sunday before moving offshore during the early and middle portions of next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday night into early Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Refton, PA
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location: 39.88, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 051935 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 235 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. A brisk cold spell will last through the weekend and precede a big warmup during the first half of next week. A frontal system will bring the chance for rain Thursday into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Plume of best moisture is starting to shift northward, finally, and decreasing the clouds over the Laurels, and increasing them over the northern Alleghenies. Dewpoints are on track despite a significant drop over the NErn mtns where IPT, LHV and N38 have all touched or dropped below 0F.

One final trough/push of colder air will move down through Central PA overnight. This will renew SHSN over the Alleghenies, and could make a dusting to an inch there. Few if any clouds should make it down into the lower Susq. If they do, they'll be sct and high-based. The wind will continue all night, but gusts should peak this evening and early tonight around and just before the passage of the trough. Mins will be in the upper teens N and m20s S.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/. The surge of cold air will keep it cold and breezy/gusty through the day on Sat. But, the SHSN and flurries will slowly decrease into the aftn as the inversion lowers a bit and wind backs a little in the llvls. The sfc high moving down from central Canada will be centered over the Upper Great Lakes on Sat, and continue moving to the SE. The best chc for more sun than clouds is the srn tier. Maxes should hold a deg or two lower than Fri.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. With brisk and cold northwest flow remaining in place through the weekend, we were keen to make the following minor adjustments to the previous forecast in accordance with the prevailing pattern:

1. Trimmed a few degrees from daytime highs Sun. 2. Increased POPs for passing snow showers in the northern mtns 3. Added/subtracted a few degrees from minTs Sat/Sun night 4. Lowered dewpoints given abnormally dry/modified arctic air

Snow accumulation by the end of weekend should range from a coating to an inch or so across the northern tier of CPA. Most of the accums will occur at night as the strong March sun mitigates daytime impact. Dry air and mostly frozen Lake Erie will both contribute to limited LES.

1030+mb high pressure builds into the area on Sunday ending snow shower activity. We see some risk to the downside for lows Sunday night with potential for ideal radiational cooling as sfc ridge axis moves into CPA.

In the big picture, our ensemble prediction systems have remained consistent of late, showing a significant warming for next week, as a deep eastern Canadian vortex fills and shifts into the north Atlantic.

This will allow ridging to push towards the eastern CONUS, with our low-level flow backing into the W and SW, heralding the arrival of Spring- like temperatures (highs ranging from the 50s-mid 60s by the middle of next week). Although much of this time frame looks dry from this early vantage point, both moisture and model uncertainty look to be on the increase towards the end of the forecast period (late Wed. onward), so the threat of showers could be looming by that time. Overall, though, the main theme is for a trend towards pleasant, early Spring type weather from Mon. through Wed.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Wind is the biggest story, with frequent gusts into the m-u20s which should peak this afternoon and evening. The wind should decrease a little tonight and a little more Saturday and even more on Sunday.

Low clouds and snow showers lingered significantly longer than expected over JST. However, we are still expecting the clouds clouds have begun the anticipated rise northward. A weak trough will drop across the region late tonight. The lift from the trough combined with the continued influx of lake moisture will generate snow showers over the nrn mtns (mainly BFD) tonight with short reductions into IFC. The SHSN should dissipate Sat AM. Most terminals will have just MVFR cigs later tonight with only a passing flurry or two. Of course, MDT and LNS will likely stay VFR.

High pressure will continue to press south and east from central Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. Sunday dries out completely with not much in the way of clouds or weather.

Outlook .

Mon-Wed . Occasional M/VFR clouds NW, otherwise no sig wx.

FIRE WEATHER. Spring fire season is starting in parts of CPA. Gusty winds and low RHs are forecast for the weekend. Many locations, especially across the southern half to two-thirds will drop into the 20-30pct range of RH during each afternoon. The wind will decrease slightly each day, and should be very light on Monday as a large high pressure works down from Canada and becomes centered over the eastern U.S.

The latest fuel moisture assessment from PA BOF partners indicated no critical fuel moisture conditions are expected over the weekend. This thankfully offsets critical fire wx risk due to low RH+gusty winds and therefore we do not anticipate issuing headlines at this time.

CLIMATE. Daylight saving time begins on Sunday, March 14th.

The first day of astronomical spring (vernal equinox 2021) will be at 5:37 A.M. EDT on Saturday, March 20th.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Dangelo/Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Dangelo SHORT TERM . Dangelo LONG TERM . Jurewicz/Lambert/Wagner AVIATION . Dangelo FIRE WEATHER . CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 34 mi50 min NW 12 G 25 37°F 40°F1015.1 hPa (-2.2)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 42 mi50 min NW 14 G 25 37°F 1014.5 hPa (-2.1)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi50 min 36°F 39°F1014 hPa (-2.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi50 min NNW 9.9 G 19 38°F 41°F1016 hPa (-2.4)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 46 mi50 min 37°F 41°F1013.8 hPa (-2.1)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 46 mi50 min WNW 18 G 25 37°F 41°F1016.2 hPa (-2.5)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi50 min WNW 24 G 29 37°F 1015.8 hPa (-2.9)
FSNM2 48 mi56 min WNW 23 G 28 36°F 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA17 mi57 minW 22 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy39°F6°F25%1014.7 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi55 minNW 15 G 2510.00 miFair36°F5°F27%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14NW11
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1 day agoW12W10SW8SW6CalmW3SW4NW3W3NE9SW4SE3NW4CalmNW5NW5NW5W10W11NW16N15NW11NW15
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2 days agoW11
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W11W10W4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmW7W6W13
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:57 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:40 PM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:55 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.411.51.71.51.20.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.20.41.222.52.62.42.11.71.20.90.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:00 AM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:47 PM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 10:27 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.21.41.310.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-00.51.11.72.12.221.71.410.60.30.20.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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