Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baltimore, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:39PM Thursday January 21, 2021 3:04 PM EST (20:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 1:19AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baltimore, OH
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location: 39.88, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 211432 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 932 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather and milder temperatures will be observed today with the area between low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and a disturbance tracking through the Tennessee valley. Surface high pressure settling into the Great Lakes will offer colder temperatures and dry conditions for Friday and Saturday. The next chance for precipitation will arrive late in the weekend as low pressure approaches from the mid-Mississippi Valley.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A warm front lifted through the region this morning, providing some low to mid-level clouds across mainly our southern half of the fa. As drier air filters in with the mid-level northwesterly flow, expect these clouds to gradually dissipate through the morning hours. Mostly sunny skies will be observed across all counties by the afternoon.

Will see winds picking up this morning as sufficient mixing will occur in the boundary layer. Sustained southwesterly winds of 10-15 kts are expected, gusting to 20-25 kts. These southerly winds will usher in some warmer air, allowing high temps to climb into the lower to upper 40s today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. West-northwest mid level flow across the region with cyclonic flow and disturbances rotating thru the Great Lakes. ILN/s area to start out mainly clear this evening with an increase in clouds across the north overnight as a disturbance and weak front drop into the southern Great Lakes. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 20s, which is around 5 degrees above normal.

Clouds to advect south to near the Ohio River Friday aftn. Under the influence of CAA and with cloud cover, temperatures look to be a few degrees below normal Friday. Expect highs to range from near 30 north where clouds are thickest to the upper 30s south of the Ohio River where sunshine is forecast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. On Friday evening, broad WNW flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley, with an area of surface high pressure beginning to nudge into the region from the upper Mississippi Valley. While winds are not expected to go completely calm, surface flow will become quite light as it switches to the north. With clearing skies, temperatures will hit their coldest values of the forecast period -- with min temps in the middle to upper teens.

The surface high is expected to move over the Ohio Valley on Saturday, as a well-defined but low-amplitude mid-level ridge also moves over the area. With warm advection yet to begin, temperatures will remain cool on Saturday, with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. This will change going into Saturday night and Sunday, as flow shifts to the southeast at 925mb and below, with more significant warm advection occurring further aloft. This will lead to a warming trend, but also an increase in moisture, particularly mid and high level moisture on Saturday night into Sunday.

By Sunday afternoon, attention will turn to the increasing precipitation chances associated with a complicated pattern setting up just upstream of the region. It appears that there will be multiple different mechanisms for producing precipitation during the Sunday through Tuesday time frame, and it would be fair to say that various model projections on the phase and amplitude of these different mechanisms remain somewhat out of alignment. The first chance will be Sunday into Sunday night, as a result of warm advection aloft, and perhaps some contribution to a shortwave moving east across northern Minnesota and northern Ontario. Between the GFS and ECMWF, the GFS has consistently been stronger with this forcing, but PoPs were kept in the chance category owing to a lack of confidence from the ECMWF. The second issue will be a shortwave and developing surface low, which will move through the area on Monday into Monday night. With this system, the ECMWF has been much more developed, perhaps even bringing some heavier precipitation to the area -- and warmer temperatures further north as well. There is enough model consensus to allow for some higher-end PoPs with this system, particularly in the southern half of the ILN CWA. Finally, there may be some additional weak forcing early on Tuesday to the north and west of the low track, just north of the upper jet. PoPs will be kept low for this feature, with precipitation amounts from both models appearing fairly light.

There is no clear signal for hazardous weather with this setup, but there are some conditional possibilities to keep an eye on. For one, the intensity of the first wave will determine how much precipitation can develop over a still-cold surface, leaving at least some potential for ice. For two, the second wave will likely produce some snow, though the track of the system will determine if this is somewhere in the ILN CWA or further north. For three, if the heavier ECMWF solution verifies, some low-end rainfall issues could develop in the southern portions of the CWA.

Temperatures through this period will likely be at least somewhat non-diurnal, with Monday looking to be the warmest day. After Monday, conditions should end up close to normal, with drier weather expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Weak isentropic lift resulted in a period of mid level clouds across the southern TAF sites early this morning which are shifted off to the east. Latest satellite imagery and sfc observations shows scattered to bkn low clouds across se IN/sw OH and nrn KY. This low level moisture may result in MVFR ceilings at KCVG and KLUK early this morning. These clouds will give way to VFR conditions by mid morning as the low level moisture shifts off to the east. Expect mainly clear skies with VFR conditions thru the aftn and into this evening. A front dropping south thru the Great Lakes will be accompanied by MVFR clouds. Expect these MVFR ceilings to develop from north to south after 09Z.

Southwest winds will increase to 12 to 15 kts. These winds will veer more westerly and gust to 20-25kts this afternoon before subsiding to around 10 kts this evening.

LLWS of 40 to 45kts can be expected to affect KCMH and KLCK until 14Z.

OUTLOOK . MVFR ceilings possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . AR NEAR TERM . Clark SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . Hatzos AVIATION . AR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Fairfield County Airport, OH9 mi72 minWSW 18 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy47°F28°F48%1007.3 hPa
Newark, Newark Heath Airport, OH14 mi71 minWSW 14 G 2210.00 miFair46°F30°F54%1006.1 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH15 mi70 minWSW 17 G 2310.00 miFair46°F28°F49%1007.1 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH15 mi74 minSW 19 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy46°F29°F51%1006.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLHQ

Wind History from LHQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW8S4S3CalmS4S7S3S6SW8SW7SW7SW10
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1 day agoSW9SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W7W10W16
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.