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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 632 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 632 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will slide by to the north today. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.

FXUS61 KCTP 022357 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 657 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A mild Saturday afternoon is in store, followed by a period of rain tonight into early Sunday. Cooler conditions will arrive Sunday night into Monday, with a weak clipper system impacting the by midweek. Temperatures should moderate by the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Lingering fog is finally lifting/mixing out late this morning.
There are some breaks in the clouds across the southern Alleghenies, and temperatures have rebounded quickly there into the low 50s.

Lingering low clouds over the Susq Valley should mix out this afternoon, but there are already high clouds pushing in ahead of our next weather-maker.

Temperatures will be mild areawide this afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across the Endless Mountains to the upper 50s across the valleys of southern PA. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early December.

Rain will overspread the area from south to north this evening into tonight, as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Rain will continue into Sunday morning before gradually pulling away from the area as the day progresses. A solid half an inch (or more) of rain is expected across all but far NW PA. This will be a beneficial rainfall, especially across south-central PA where we are still running notable year-to-date rainfall deficits.

As low pressure pushes up the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday night, it will drag a cold front across the area and usher a chillier airmass for early next week. Scattered rain and snow will continue across the western highlands into Monday before briefly tapering off Monday night.

By Tuesday, eyes turn to a clipper-system approaching from the Lower Great Lakes. It looks like this system will be weakening and rather moisture-starved as it slides just to our south, but it should be enough to produce some light rain and snow. We could see some light snow accumulation across the western highlands, likely focused on the Laurel Highlands if the system does pass just to our south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Clipper system diving southeast from the Great Lakes across southwest PA Tuesday PM remains key focus early in the period with increasing potential/confidence for accumulating snow | particularly at higher elevations | Tuesday night into Wednesday. We continued to take POPs higher over the Laurel Highlands given favorable low track and enhanced orographic lift. The upper trough is slow to depart which will likely linger snow/snow showers into Wednesday before sfc ridge axis arrives Wednesday night. Northerly flow behind the departing clipper will continue colder temp trend (near to below climo)
through the middle of next week.

A more zonal flow pattern aloft likely resumes after this (mid- week upper trough) system exits the East Coast. In response, temps should bottom Wed/Thu and rebound to above climo levels by next Friday/Saturday. Rising 500mb heights ahead of organized storm over the west-central U.S. should also keep mild conditions into next weekend. GFS/ECMWF displaying their usual fast/slow bias with this system with CMC a middle ground with round of precip for later Sunday/Sunday night (very low confidence on timing).

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A wide range of conditions are occurring with VFR currently being observed as of 23Z at JST, AOO, and UNV, and MVFR to IFR elsewhere. Similar to last night, there is high confidence in widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities developing overnight with the HRRR showing an 80-100% chance of IFR or lower conditions for most of Central Pennsylvania. Periods of rain will occur throughout the early morning and into the afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. IFR conditions will persist through most of the day tomorrow, though it is possible that areas in the southwest see improvement to MVFR after 21Z.

While most of the area will see rain come to an end tomorrow afternoon, an approaching cold front will likely bring some more showers to the northwest part of the area into the evening.
A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out with these showers as at least marginal destabilization occurs ahead of the front, but confidence is too low to mention any thunder in the TAF at this point.

A strengthening low level jet will move in from the southwest towards the end of the 00Z TAF period and will lead to the development of LLWS for JST and AOO. The threat for LLWS will continue to expand eastward after 00Z as the low level jet continues to move into the area.

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR/IFR western 1/3 with snow showers.

Tue-Wed...Light rain/snow with sub-VFR likely.

Thu...Chance of rain or snow.

CLIMATE
Williamsport Monthly (November) and Seasonal (Fall) Climate Summary: ------------------------------------------------------------- The average temperature for November was of 41.3F or -0.6F below the 30yr mean. The average maximum temperature was 51.4F or +0.8F above normal while the average minimum temperature was 31.3F or -1.9F below normal. The most notable callout last month was the -1.74" departure from normal in precipitation with only 1.51" (24th driest). For the Fall/Autumn season spanning the 3-month period from September to November, it was a rather mild and dry ranking as T-20th warmest (54.9F mean temp) and 23rd driest (7.15" total precip or -4.56" below normal).

Harrisburg Monthly (November) and Seasonal (Fall) Climate Summary: -------------------------------------------------------------- The average temperature for November was of 44.7F or -0.2F below the 30yr mean (T-50th warmest). The average maximum temperature was 55.0F or +1.1F above normal (T-30th warmest)
while the average minimum temperature was 34.4F or -1.4F below normal. The total precipitation last month was 2.49" or -0.48" below normal. For the Fall/Autumn season spanning the 3-month period from September to November, it was a quite mild ranking as 15th warmest (57.6F mean temp). The total precip was 9.39" or -2.22" below normal.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:51 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:07 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:49 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:25 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:08 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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