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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 933 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 933 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
broad high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.

FXUS61 KCTP 081303 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 803 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
A surface and upper level ridge will drift east and off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. The weather feature will help to push a warm front north across Pennsylvania this morning. Fair weather with variable amounts of clouds, lighter winds and milder afternoon temperatures will occur today and Saturday.

Low pressure will track west of the state this weekend, with a sharp southward trailing cold front pushing east across the region late Sunday and Sunday night. Widespread rain is expected late Saturday night into Sunday, with colder air arriving for a changeover to snow over the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon and night, and across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley early Monday. The precipitation will taper to flurries on Monday. Fair and seasonable conditions are then expected for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A surface warm front was pushing Northeast across the Laurel Highlands early this morning and will drift northeast a bit further NE toward the Central Mtns during the late morning and early afternoon.

The airmass is quite dry with PWAT values hovering around 0.50 inch and just weak llvl convergence along the front with no significant deep layer forcing aloft to bring any measurable precip with the warm front.

Several layer of clouds traversing the region will make for an intriguing sky today with a picturesque sunrise and sunset.

The developing southerly low-level flow, combined with warming aloft and a fair amount of sunshine with GEFS 2m temps +10-15F above climo will lead to high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s over the northeast part of the forecast area and the mid 50s throughout the the southern valleys and Western Mtns.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Look for fair, dry weather to continue for us tonight and Saturday close to the upper ridge axis. A similar west to east gradient in overnight lows will occur tonight/early Saturday, thanks to a moderate southerly breeze holding temps in the 35-40F range over the Allegheny Plateau.

Coolest temps (near 30F in some spots) will be found across the Susq Valley as a result of light wind, partly cloudy skies and boundary layer decoupling. Will maintain the patchy fog in the gridded data for Sat AM over the southeast half of the forecast area based on latest SREF and NAMNest guidance.

The aforementioned slow moving warm front may have a tough time scouring out the shallow colder airmass that will be in place along and to the east of the Appalachians Saturday.

The warmest temps with highs in the mid 50s are expected over the western counties, while shallow cold air damming east of the front keeps readings a bit cooler in Eastern PA. Upper level ridging along the east coast should keep it dry for most, if not all, of Central PA. However, can't rule out a shower sneaking into the W Mtns toward dusk ahead of an upstream cold front, but it appears showers will hold off until well after dark for most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Models indicate a longwave upper level trough will move across the area late Sunday into Monday. System is not likely to cut off over our area, but several low pressure centers likely to track along the cold front on Sunday. Potential for moderate to heavy rain ahead and along the cold front. Unlike last Sunday, potential for severe storms not showing up, as 500 mb height falls lag the front, and dewpoints not really above 50 degrees.

About 1.50 to 2.25 inches of rain is expected for much of central PA Sunday. Isolated flooding is possible, mainly north of I-81 and east of the Susq River Valley, but by and large we expect this to be a beneficial rain, especially across the southern tier where it has been dry of late.

A sfc inversion ahead of the cold front will likely keep wind gusts sub 30 mph much of the day Sunday, but gusts to 40+ mph are possible behind the cold front, especially across the higher elevations.

Models and WPC guidance continues to point to a low potential for up to several inches of snow behind the front Sunday night, mainly across the areas north and west of the Interstate 80 and I-99 corridors. A much higher probability of at least 1 or 2 inches exists across a large percentage of the region, outside of the Lower and Middle Susq Valley where min temps Monday should only reach 35-38F in many locations. Any snow snow showers would taper off on Monday, as the system lifts out of the area.

For the Tuesday into Thursday period, a secondary cold front moves across the region, but mainly a dry front. Nothing real cold or warm expected.

AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Warm front was pushing across the Alleghenies at 12Z but should get hung up as it tries to scour out the shallow, colder air trapped in the Valleys of Central PA and the Susq Region. Where that shallow colder air is getting a bit of a moisture injection near the Susq River, locally dense fog was occurring, though vsbys are slowly climbing above 1SM at KIPT.

Cigs are comprised of a dual to multi cloud layer with stratocu, altocu and some cirrus.

Mainly VFR conditions appear to dominate for the rest of today as a southerly breeze develops, and becomes gusty at 10-15 knots across the Alleghenies.

Lowering ceilings approach from the west, possibly nearing MVFR criteria at KBFD by 06Z Sat. The 06-12Z Sat period shows increasing confidence in lowering ceilings farther east, as well as fog development in the Susquehanna Valley with sub- VFR conditions likely.

Outlook...

Sat...IFR fog early east, then MVFR ceilings BFD and VFR elsewhere daytime. Showers NW late.

Sun...CFROPA. Widespread reductions in rain/snow. Windy.

Mon...Rain/snow showers poss N/W. Breezy west wind.

Tue...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Fri -- 01:53 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:48 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:29 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EST     1.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:25 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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