Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Windsor, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Fair conditions prevailing overnight with thin cirrus transitioning to increasing altostratus as warm front approaches southwestern PA by sunrise. Showers associated with continued WAA reach the Alleghenies by morning. The mild return flow and increasing clouds will keep mins from falling below the L50s over the Laurel Highlands and South Central Mountains, but the valleys of the NE could touch the upper 30s as clouds thicken there the latest.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The east/southeast wind continues to veer through the day on Monday, and the warm front will push into the CWA While it may not get completely through the CWA, the temps will still get into the 60s in the E and near 70F W. After any morning showers in the nrn tier, there should be a break in the clouds and precip. Then the cold front will press eastward from OH, and the heights fall. Have added more chc T into the grids than NBM started with. Enough CAPE and instability (mainly elevated) in the far west as we approach evening, and into the central mtns in the evening. Have made PoPs a little lower in the east until after dark, when showers/storms will move in from the SW/S-central counties. Good llvl capping inversion on the NAM, but gets erased on GFS over JST/BFD. QPF looks light and the limited CAPE will likely limit the TSRA to garden variety.

The cold front arrives from the NW in the evening NW, and should be through the CWA by 09Z. The lack of instability and CAPE in the early night when it is moving through will mean that the showers will remain meager and sct along the front. Min temps will be mild, esp in the SE due to late passage of cold front.
Cold air also not terribly cold, but dry. 8H temps by morning should be near 0C NW but still around 10C SE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Thanks to long-wave ridging overhead, a prolonged stretch of days with above average temperatures and no precipitation are likely starting Tuesday night. 850 temps in the double digits above zero will mean mild and even warm temps for most of the period across central PA. The next weather system moves through late in the period on Friday and Friday night. Centralized low pressure over central Quebec will see a cold front draped across southern Canada and across the Great Lakes region. This cold front will extend well into the Ohio and Mississippi valleys. The forcing and moisture along this front will bring a chance for rain and perhaps some storms.

Highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s will be trend. Mins should stay above freezing in all of Central PA thru the period, with many nights only dipping into the m50s in the S. Portions of northern PA who have not quite seen grass/flowers takeoff yet should see a burst of green over the next week or two.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions continue through the night with increasing high clouds and light winds. Low-level moisture will increase towards sunrise as a warm front lifts into the area from the southwest.
This will bring some low and mid level clouds with it. The GLAMP shows a period of MVFR ceilings impacting AOO during the morning as these clouds move in, but this is a low probability solution.
A 40 to 50 knot lljet over western PA will lead to LLWS developing at BFD and JST overnight.

JST and BFD then have the best chc (50%) for TSRA later in the day on Monday as the cold front nears, nearly catching up to the warm front. Most hi-res guidance suggests that any instability will struggle to make it east of those two sites so have held off on mentioning thunder anywhere else.

Outlook...

Tue...Early AM low cigs NW, then VFR as clouds lift/dissipate.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Showers developing during the afternoon with restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.