Sunday, September15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seaside Park, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:07PM Sunday September 15, 2019 10:23 PM EDT (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:12PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201909161300;;852447 Fzus51 Kphi 160114 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 914 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-161300- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 914 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 914 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will stall south of our area through today while high pressure weakens to our west. A weak area of low pressure slides near our region on Monday. High pressure builds across the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, then shifts southward across the mid-atlantic region Thursday. The high is forecast to shift to our south Friday, then offshore next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seaside Park borough, NJ
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location: 39.92, -74.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 160117
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
917 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will stall south of our area through today while
high pressure weakens to our west. A weak area of low pressure
slides near our region on Monday. High pressure builds across
the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, then shifts southward
across the mid-atlantic region Thursday. The high is forecast to
shift to our south Friday, then offshore next weekend.

Near term through Monday
Latest northeast radar showing some streamers moving in from the
north and west. Not much precip associated with it, but will go
ahead and mention some scattered sprinkles, mainly across
northern and western zones, for a few hours through this
evening.

Otherwise, some higher level clouds will arrive through the
night from the west within the gradually sharpening upper-level
flow. There are some hints in the guidance, mainly the nam,
that some low clouds may try to develop offshore and move into
the coast overnight. This is of low confidence. Low temperatures
are mostly a blend of the statistical guidance and continuity.

Short term Monday night through 6 pm Monday
An upper-level trough remains in place across eastern canada
and the northeast Monday. This will favor northwesterly flow
aloft and embedded within this flow is a weak disturbance with a
weak surface low reflection. This may be the remnant energy
associated with an MCS yesterday in the midwest (ongoing cloud
debris moving into the ohio valley). Some increase in the clouds
are expected, with this the most prevalent across the northern
portions of the area.

The majority of the guidance shows some shower potential with
the rather weak surface low as it tracks east-southeast from the
upper ohio valley to start the day to near DELMARVA by late
afternoon. This weak system should track along the weak stalled
surface front in the vicinity. The combination of all of these
weak systems along with our northern areas being near the right
entrance region of a mid level jet by late afternoon, should
result in some shower activity. The main focus for this is
across the west and northern areas where slight chance to low
chance pops are maintained for the afternoon. The 12z NAM shows
a rapid development in convection from the baltimore area to
southeastern pennsylvania after 21z, however this looks
overdone.

As for the high temperatures, opted for a model blend given some
additional variability. Highs in the mid to upper 80's south of the
lingering weak front. A sea breeze is expected once again.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
Synoptic overview:
an extended period of quiet weather looks likely over our area
for the long term. At the mid-lvls a fairly amplified ridge will
reside upstream of the area for essentially the entire long-
term period (although at times oscillating in orientation and
mean-position). At the surface the upstream ridge positioning
will promote anticyclogenesis with the initial surface high
centered north of the area. By the end of the workweek the high
will re-orient itself south of the area shifting the low-lvl
flow from onshore to offshore with a corresponding increase in
temperatures expected.

Dailies:
Monday night through Tuesday: the only chance of any
precipitation through the extended will be in the overnight
period Monday into Tuesday morning as a shortwave lifts
northeast of the area and an associated weak front moves through
the area. Given the clipping nature of the upper level system
capped pops at slight-chance with nothing significant expected.

The boundary will be largely south of the area by Tuesday
afternoon with highs generally in the 70s areawide.

Wednesday Thursday: should be dry and mild with onshore flow
prevailing. Highs will generally be near climo (low to mid 70s)
with lows in the low to mid 50s. Mostly sunny outside of some
occasional stratus (most prevalent near the coast).

Friday Saturday: the high will relocate south of the area
towards the late week-early weekend with the flow shifting more
westerly as a result. This will usher in a warming trend into
the weekend with maxes increasing into the upper 70s lower 80s
on Friday, and then increasing further into the mid 80s on
Saturday. Precipitation chances remain essentially nil. A
mostly quiet long term period is expected, with only a small
chance of precipitation at the beginning of the period..

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR overall. There is some potential that low clouds
develop overnight near the coast and reach acy, however this is
of low confidence. Light and variable to locally calm winds.

Monday... Some low clouds possible near the coast early,
otherwiseVFR with any ceilings mainly above 8000 feet. Some
showers possible in the afternoon mainly near and north west of
abe and rdg. Light and variable winds becoming west-northwest
4-8 knots in the morning, then turning southwesterly before
becoming northwest toward early evening.

Outlook...

Monday night... GenerallyVFR although some sub-vfr conditions
possible in showers lower clouds. Winds north-northeast 5-10kts.

Tuesday-Wednesday night... MostlyVFR during the day, with a
chance of MVFR conditions overnight in stratus. East to
northeast winds 5-10 knots
Thursday-Thursday night... GenerallyVFR conditions expected with
east-southeast winds 5-10 kts.

Marine
Conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria
through Monday. A stalled weak front in the vicinity will result
in light enough flow for sea bay breeze influences and
therefore wind shifts to more southerly.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday morning... Conditions are expected
to remain below advisory levels with seas around 3-4 ft. And ne
winds increasing to around 15 kts by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday-Thursday... SCA conditions potentially developing as
early as Tuesday but likely by Wednesday. Seas will increase to
5-7 ft by late Wednesday with northeasterly wind gusts likely
increasing to 25 kts or so as well.S
rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at new jersey and delaware beaches on Monday due to
light southerly flow and waves of 2-3 feet in the surf zone.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Gorse mps
short term... Gorse
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr gorse mps
marine... Carr gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 19 mi23 min 71°F3 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi113 min Calm 55°F 1018 hPa55°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi33 min SSW 9.7 G 12 71°F 72°F3 ft1017.9 hPa70°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi53 min SW 6 G 7 73°F 72°F1018.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi53 min S 1 G 1.9 68°F 74°F1019.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 43 mi53 min 73°F 73°F1019.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi47 min Calm G 0 69°F 74°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ11 mi27 minN 00.25 miFog0°F0°F%1019.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi83 minN 08.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1018.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi27 minSSW 48.00 miFair69°F68°F96%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------CalmW3----SW3--Calm----E5Calm--S35SE8SE6SE6S5CalmCalm
1 day agoE3--------Calm------CalmCalm--SE12--S11S11S8S9S8S8S9S7S5S3
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Tide / Current Tables for Seaside Park, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Seaside Park
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Sun -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.40.30.20.10.1000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.1000.10.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:21 AM EDT     -2.63 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:45 AM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:40 PM EDT     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:02 PM EDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-1.3-2-2.6-2.4-1.5-0.211.92.11.60.9-0-0.9-1.7-2.2-2.4-1.7-0.40.81.92.321.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.