Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seaside Park, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:44PM Friday August 23, 2019 3:54 PM EDT (19:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:49PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201908240730;;097375 Fzus51 Kphi 231946 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 346 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-240730- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 346 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Scattered showers early this evening.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 346 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will continue to slowly push south as high pressure builds to our north through early next week. The high will try to spread down the east coast, but not fully make it into the area. The high will retreat north and east next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow an area of low pressure to lift northward off the eastern seaboard during the mid week period and a cold front to track through the area later next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seaside Park borough, NJ
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location: 39.92, -74.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231340
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
940 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will continue slowly pushing to our south as high
pressure builds to our north through early next week. The high
will try to nose itself down the east coast, but not fully make
its way into our area. This high will retreat north and eastward
by Tuesday and Wednesday as an area of low lifts northward
offshore of the east coast and a cold front approaches from the
west around the middle to end of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Looks like a persistent band of showers will slowly sag
southward through the day, something that a lot of the models
wanted to dissipate much too quickly. Thinking this band will
persist into the afternoon, while convection develops farther
south as a perturbation discussed below approaches the southern
cwa later today. Also, a few isolated showers may develop this
morning southeast of the more persistent band.

The residual effects of these showers will be thicker cloud
cover for longer north of the front, and relatively cool
temperatures. Additionally, as subsequent vorticity maxima move
east along the frontal boundary, additional showers cannot be
ruled but should become confined to areas south of i-78 by
afternoon and south of i-76 by late in the day.

Areas near and to the south of the front will still see some
latent instability and will be in much closer proximity to the
strongest large-scale and mesoscale ascent. A fairly strong
perturbation will approach the area this afternoon. Anticipating
storms will develop near the mason-dixon line (and southward),
riding to the east of the perturbation through the evening
hours. Hi-res models are generating quite a bit of convection
from DELMARVA southward this afternoon. Strongest instability
will be south of the cwa, so the best chances of severe storms
will be south of the area as well. Nevertheless, cannot rule out
the potential entirely. Additionally, stronger storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, though not
expecting much of a flooding threat today.

The potential exists for showers (and maybe an isolated storm
or two) to reach as far north as the i-76 corridor, but this
will depend entirely on the progress of the front today. Model
trends are a little slower in general, but there will be
complicating effects from the clouds showers early this morning
(among other factors). Expect adjustments to the forecast as the
details on frontal placement and the evolution of this
afternoon's vort MAX become clearer.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Storms may be ongoing in southern portions of the CWA during
the evening hours, but as the attendant perturbation moves
offshore, the storms will move southeast of the area during the
overnight hours. Hi-res simulations are indicating the potential
for storm totals over an inch in portions of DELMARVA (and
possibly far southern new jersey). Cannot rule out a rogue
severe storm or nuisance instance of flooding, but these chances
appear fairly remote as the stronger instability lift will be
well south of the area by this time frame.

Drier air will filter into the area overnight, with sky cover
improving north to south with time. Lows will be considerably
cooler tonight (probably by about 10 degrees, give or take) as a
combination of cold advection and some radiational cooling take
hold.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Drier and cooler conditions start the long term period, before
warmer weather and greater chances of precipitation return by
the middle of next week.

As we start the weekend, Saturday is expected to be a very
pleasant day. High pressure will be building to our north across
eastern canada, with our area on the far southern edge. This
will keep easterly flow across the area, and as a trough low
aloft moves across the area, temperatures will cool to near or
below normal. Dry weather is expected, with mainly
afternoon evening clouds due to the trough low moving overhead.

However, as we move into Sunday and Monday, the easterly flow
will continue as high pressure builds a little farther southward
across new england. The high will try to nose its way down the
east coat toward the mid atlantic region during this time as
well. Guidance continues to indicate precipitation developing
across the area during this period, so we will have a slight
chance of showers Sunday through Monday. However, it may just
end up being more cloudy rather than rainy as some stratocumulus
clouds could develop with the persistent easterly flow.

Regardless, if it does rain, it is expected to be light a pw
values are mostly an inch or less.

As we move into Tuesday through Thursday, unsettled weather
could return to the area. An area of low pressure is forecast to
be lifting northward offshore of the east coast Tuesday into
Tuesday night, while a cold front approaches from the west
during the day Wednesday into Thursday. There are some timing
differences with these systems between the GFS and ecmwf.

However, there will be an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms starting Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday,
and possibly continuing into Thursday, depending on how fast
the cold front moves through.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of today... Persistent band of showers will shift slowly
southward today, affecting rdg abe ttn this morning, phl pne ilg
late this morning into early afternoon, and ilg acy miv around
midday onward. Meanwhile, more widespread showers storms may
affect areas south of the interstate 76 corridor this afternoon.

Brief sub-vfr conditions are expected in proximity to showers,
but MVFR CIGS may occur on occasion for much of the morning
outside of precipitation as well. North to northwest winds
around 10 kts.

Tonight... MainlyVFR with light northwest or north winds. Any
evening showers storms in DELMARVA and southern new jersey
should move southeast away from the terminals by the overnight
hours.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Winds
generally northeast 5-10 knots.

Sunday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. Winds remain northeast
5-10 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots possible.

Sunday night-Tuesday... MVFR ceilings may begin to develop
overnight Sunday and continue into Monday for some areas. Winds
remain east to northeast 5-10 knots Sunday night through Monday
night before shifting to southeast on Tuesday. Gusts 15-20 knots
possible at times.

Marine
Sub-advisory winds seas are expected through the period, with
north to northeast winds 5 to 15 kts through this evening
increasing to 10 to 20 kts overnight. Seas will generally be 2
to 4 feet.

Once again, there is a chance of storms today, generally for
delaware bay and the atlantic waters south of atlantic city.

Locally stronger gusts and higher waves should be expected in
their proximity.

Outlook...

Friday-Saturday night... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots at
times.

Sunday-Monday... Winds may approach advisory levels and gust
around 25 knots at times. However, seas are forecast to build to
around 5 feet, so a small craft advisory may be needed.

Monday night-Tuesday... Winds may drop below advisory levels and
gust around 20 knots at times. However, seas are forecast to
build to around 5 feet, so a small craft advisory may be needed.

Rip currents...

a northerly wind of 10 to 15 mph is expected today. Breaking
waves around 2 to 3 feet are likely along with a medium-period
southerly swell. A low risk of rip currents is forecast.

A long-duration northeast to east wind is expected for the
weekend and into the early part of the new week. As a result, we
are anticipating a prolonged period with an enhanced risk for
the development of dangerous rip currents from Saturday through
at least Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
A prolonged northeast to east flow is expected Saturday through
at least Tuesday. This persistent onshore fetch, combined with
increasing astronomical tides due to an approaching new moon on
Thursday will likely lead to increasing coastal water levels.

Some guidance is already indicating that minor coastal flooding
is becoming more likely, possibly starting as early as Sunday,
but more likely Monday and Tuesday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Cms iovino
short term... Cms
long term... Robertson
aviation... Cms robertson
marine... Cms robertson
tides coastal flooding... Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 19 mi55 min 76°F4 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi85 min NW 4.1 50°F 1016 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi45 min NW 7.8 G 12 70°F 74°F1015.4 hPa62°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi55 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 78°F1016.2 hPa (-0.5)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi55 min NW 5.1 G 6 68°F 82°F1017.2 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 43 mi55 min 65°F 71°F1016.8 hPa (+0.5)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi79 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 81°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ11 mi2 hrsW 310.00 miLight Rain66°F0°F%1016.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi1.9 hrsWNW 610.00 miLight Rain65°F64°F97%1016.1 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi2 hrsNW 810.00 miLight Rain68°F62°F81%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW8SW6SW4S7S6CalmNW7N4SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4--NW7N5N8N6NW7NW4W3NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Seaside Park, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Seaside Park
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Fri -- 05:10 AM EDT     0.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:31 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:03 AM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM EDT     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.71.40.6-0.2-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.50.71.72.221.20.2-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.9-2-1.5-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.