Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seaside Park, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:38PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 9:19 AM EST (14:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:31AMMoonset 2:31PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201911202315;;550026 Fzus51 Kphi 201116 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 616 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-202315- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 616 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am est this morning through Thursday morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 5 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 616 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will migrate slowly through the eastern u.s. Through Thursday before shifting offshore Thursday night. A cold front will move through the area on Friday. A surface low will move quickly from the mid-south on Friday night to the canadian maritimes by Sunday night. High pressure will return to the mid-atlantic early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seaside Park borough, NJ
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location: 39.92, -74.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kphi.afd.phi.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS61 KPHI 201120 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 620 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

SYNOPSIS High pressure will migrate slowly through the eastern U.S. through Thursday before shifting offshore Thursday night. A cold front will move through the area on Friday. A surface low will move quickly from the Mid-South on Friday night to the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday night. High pressure will return to the Mid-Atlantic early next week.

NEAR TERM THROUGH TONIGHT 630 am update: Had a few sprinkles move through Delmarva and southern New Jersey in the past few hours, but nothing measurable. These are predominantly moving offshore, though cannot rule out a few more in the next couple of hours as a strong vort MAX translates offshore.

Temperatures are warmer than forecast early this morning owing to the increased cloud cover, so I have modified hourly temperatures somewhat through the morning to compensate. Other than that, no significant changes to the forecast at this time.

Previous discussion...

A large-scale trough is moving through the Northeast at this time, with embedded vorticity maxima moving eastward through and east of the Mid-Atlantic. A predecessor vort MAX was migrating well offshore, with substantial lift aiding in the development of a strong surface low well east of the Virginia coast. A kicker vort MAX was digging into the southern Mid-Atlantic, which will force the leading perturbation northeastward, taking the ocean storm with it. The core of the large-scale trough will move through the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight through around midday, with lift moisture sufficient for a midlevel cloud deck through much of this period.

As high pressure builds into the eastern U.S. today, the pressure gradient will increase for some breezy northwest winds.

Decent cold advection will occur across the area today, but directions are also favorable for some downsloping, which should mitigate the cooling effects to some degree. Additionally, the source region of the incoming surface high is not cold, so temperatures will not stray too much from seasonal averages today. Operational statistical guidance is (are) in reasonable agreement, so used a blend (including the previous forecast) for highs today. This should result in temperatures in the 40s for areas north of the I-295 I-195 corridors and low 50s south of there. However, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph this afternoon, it will feel a little chilly.

Winds will diminish somewhat tonight as high pressure continues its approach to the area; however, this will be a gradual process. Skies will be clearing as large-scale subsidence approaches the region. The question will be if the winds diminish enough for more ideal radiational cooling. Current thinking is that this may indeed be the case for the sheltered valleys north and west of the urban corridor, but may not for the urban heat island and points south and east. Latest forecast incorporates some of the colder guidance northwest of the Fall Line but warmer guidance south and east. It is quite possible the forecast temperatures are not cold enough and warm enough in these respective regions.

SHORT TERM THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A surface ridge will be moving through the region on Thursday with northwest midlevel flow upstream of the departing large- scale trough. A surface low will be translating northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes and adjacent southern Ontario during the period, with downstream (and transient) ridging moving into the Mid-Atlantic. This should keep things generally quiet across the area during the day, with warm advection increasing after the surface ridge moves through the area. Cannot rule out some spotty showers in the Poconos as the surface low races toward the Saint Lawrence Valley late in the night, but think the stronger lift and associated precipitation will stay mostly north of the region.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement that temperatures will be near seasonal averages on Thursday, but temperatures will likely be a little warmer on Thursday night from the previous night as warm advection and resultant cloud cover increase.

LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY Main concerns in the medium-range period are a weak frontal passage on Friday and a more potent system affecting the area this weekend.

A surface low will be racing eastward through southeast Canada and far northern New England on Friday, with an attendant front weakening as it impinges on downstream ridging in the western Atlantic. With the strongest lift well north of the area, think precipitation coverage will be spotty or scattered with precipitation amounts light. Warm advection in advance of the front will keep thermal profiles much too warm for anything other than liquid precipitation. Best chances for precipitation are during the afternoon on Friday, but did lower PoPs considerably from the previous forecast given the dry-looking model output in general. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages on Friday, but should lower quickly on Friday night given a transient high moving through the area (and rapidly clearing skies). Went colder than guidance on Friday night given concerns for fairly decent radiational cooling.

Attention turns to a southern-stream system ejecting from the Desert Southwest late this week. As it progresses into the central southern Plains on Friday, a surface low will develop and lift quickly east-northeast into the Mid-South by Friday night. Models generally indicate some phasing with a digging northern-stream vort MAX in vicinity of the Upper Midwest Great Lakes on Saturday, which will act to intensify the large-scale lift and the attendant surface low as it approaches the central Appalachians Saturday night. Widespread rain should develop in the warm-advection regime downstream of the low. As phasing continues on Sunday, there are indications of secondary-low development in the Mid-Atlantic, with fairly decent QPF generated by the strong intensifying lift via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm advection. Consensus of model timing appears to be Saturday night, though there remains some lingering discrepancies among the deterministic model output. Notably, the speed of the system should prevent QPF from getting too extreme, but widespread 0.5-1.0 inch totals appear possible.

Expecting a large chunk of the precipitation to be liquid, but there is some concern about the far northern CWA. Models look a little too warm on the northern fringes of the precipitation shield (and tend to be in the Poconos anyway). Used temperatures a little below guidance for Saturday night (closer to the CMC vs. the GFS), which generates a mix of precipitation near north of I-80 given the forecast timing of the low's passage through the area. Will need to watch this system closely, as colder-than-projected forecasts would suggest decent potential for some wintry precipitation on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield.

Some wraparound precipitation may linger into Sunday, but PoPs rapidly decrease during the day as the low lifts well northeast of the area. However, Sunday may end up warmer than Saturday given favorable downsloping and improving skies.

High pressure builds into the area early next week, which should result in mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures.

AVIATION 11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with CIGs around 5-10 kft for much of the day.

Northwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts.

High confidence.

Wednesday night...VFR with clearing skies. Northwest winds diminishing to around 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kt becoming southwest late. High confidence.

Thursday night and Friday... Restrictions (mainly brief) possible with a chance of showers. Southwest winds up to 10 kt on Thursday night increasing to 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts on Friday. A switch to west or northwest winds is anticipated late in the day as a cold front moves through. Moderate confidence.

Friday night... MainlyVFR with light winds. Moderate confidence.

Saturday... Light variable winds becoming east or southeast late in the day. Increasing cloudiness, with CIGs lowering approaching MVFR thresholds late in the day. Low confidence.

Saturday night and Sunday... Restrictions likely with rain Saturday night, possibly lingering into Sunday morning.

Improvement is expected by afternoon. Winds backing from east to north Saturday night (generally light) becoming northwest and increasing to 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts on Sunday. Moderate to high confidence on overall evolution; low confidence on timing.

MARINE No changes to the small craft advisory in effect for Delaware Bay this afternoon this evening and for the Atlantic waters this afternoon through the overnight hours.

Light northwest winds early this morning will ramp up to around or slightly above advisory criteria by this afternoon as the pressure gradient increases between low pressure well offshore and high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. The strongest winds are expected late today into this evening before diminishing by daybreak Thursday. Conditions are expected to be sub-advisory on Delaware Bay after midnight.

Seas are expected to be around 2 to 4 feet, possibly maxing out around 5 feet on the open waters well off the coast.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Friday and Friday night... Marginal advisory conditions possible as southwest winds increase in advance of a cold front, becoming northwest by Friday night. Winds should diminish by Saturday morning.

Saturday... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Saturday night... Advisory conditions possible with a good chance of rain and associated visibility restrictions.

Sunday... Advisory conditions possible, with rain generally moving out.

PHI WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES PA... None.

NJ... None.

DE... None.

MD... None.

MARINE... Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis... CMS Near Term... CMS Short Term... CMS Long Term... CMS Aviation... CMS Marine... CMS
Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 19 mi20 min 56°F4 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi50 min W 2.9 40°F 1015 hPa35°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi30 min NNW 18 G 21 44°F 54°F3 ft1013.4 hPa35°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi50 min NNW 12 G 16 41°F 47°F1014 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi50 min N 5.1 G 7 42°F 41°F1015.1 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 43 mi50 min 42°F 50°F1014.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi44 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 42°F 41°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ11 mi24 minNW 810.00 miFair41°F37°F86%1014.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi80 minWNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds38°F35°F89%1013.9 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi24 minNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F30°F70%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9W86W8W8--CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW4N5CalmNW5NW6NW5NW5NW4NW5NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Seaside Park, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Seaside Park
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Wed -- 05:17 AM EST     0.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:54 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:31 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.20.20.30.40.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.30.30.20.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:51 AM EST     2.26 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:57 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EST     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:25 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:07 PM EST     2.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:32 PM EST     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:16 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.31.70.9-0-0.9-1.5-2-2.3-1.8-0.60.822.52.21.30.3-0.7-1.5-2.1-2.6-2.6-1.8-0.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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