Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:46PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:52 PM EST (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 3:27AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1238 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
This afternoon..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain or drizzle likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain or drizzle likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 1238 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 081116 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 616 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. After a fair weather weekend, a volatile and stormy pattern is expected during the second week of December. Temperatures are forecast to surge well-above normal Monday and Tuesday, followed by a sharply colder trend Wednesday into Thursday. The brief warm-up will be accompanied by periods of rain which may end as light snow late Tuesday night. A mid to late week drying trend will likely reverse by next weekend with another complex storm system on the horizon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/. High pressure over the region early this morning will keep clear skies across central Pennsylvania through early afternoon.

SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Clouds increase later this afternoon, as moisture starts to work toward the area from both the west and southeast. The NAM shows some spotty QPF across the far northwest toward 00Z. Low levels are quite dry, so hard to buy into this. Max temps will rebound 5-10 degrees over the western Alleghenies today. Dry wx will hold during the day with POPs steadily increasing later Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Very minor adjustments made to this part of the fcst package. Main concern will be the object temperatures toward sunrise on Monday. The sun will help warm things today, timing of the clouds will determine how much objects cool off tonight.

More detail below.

Models have been having the highest precip probs in the far southeast zones by daybreak. QPF will be very light and with southeast flow could almost see a more misty/foggy/drizzle type pattern developing. Thermal profiles are very marginal particularly over the interior central mtns where some spotty light frozen/freezing precip is possible especially when considering wet-bulb effects. That said, sfc temps generally AOA 32F suggest little to no impact as predominant ptype becomes rain into later Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Looked over both the GFS and EC runs, not really seeing any one system to grab onto, so will adjust fcst as needed.

Made a few minor adjustments into Wed. For snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, only have light amounts so far. The advection of dry and cold air at low levels may offset jet dynamics. This in line with 00Z EC.

Models show different solutions for late in the week into next week, with intensity and timing of systems.

More detail below.

Big temperature swings are expected during the period. A significant warming trend is forecast early next week with max temperature departures +10-15 degrees above normal (widespread 40s and 50s). Unseasonably mild minimum temps are forecast Monday night with departures on the order of 15-20 degrees above normal as the primary PWAT axis (with values around +2 sigma) slides east across the region.

The mild surge will be accompanied by periods of light to moderate rain Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts between 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast early next week. The warm air and rainfall will help to melt the snow over the Allegheny Front into the Upper Susquehanna River basin. Areas of fog are likely as the mild air moves over colder ground.

Rises on rivers/streams are expected and will need to monitor risk of minor flooding across the northern tier. WPC indicates a MRGL risk of rainfall heavy enough to cause flooding of small streams and poor drainage areas over our far SW counties Monday into early Tuesday.

It will turn sharply colder midweek as arctic air blasts into the region. Temperatures will be on the decline over the NW Tuesday afternoon (non diurnal over the NW half) and drop quickly Tuesday night areawide. There will be some potential for residual water or slush to freeze up quickly by Wednesday. Highs are forecast to drop by 20-30 degrees between Tuesday and Thursday, with minimum wind chills in the single digits and teens Thursday morning.

There is also a chance that the cold air could catch up to the back edge of the rain and result in a period of snow at the end of the precipitation event on Wednesday. There should be some lake effect snow that develops in the wake of the system, but trajectories appear to be focused more into southwest NY.

Strong 1040+mb high pressure moves NE across the region Thu/Fri.

The more active weather pattern may continue into next weekend with the GFS and ECMWF both showing a large, dynamic storm system bringing some modified tropical air up the eastern seaboard, potentially impacting portions of our region.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Only some thin cirrus nearrus. The cirrus should thicken up through the day. Some lower clouds will try to roll northward on the nose of a LLJ later this aftn, but at most a sprinkle is possible at BFD and nowhere else. Temps should be above freezing during that time. LLWS is possible at BFD and maybe JST in the late aftn and evening due to the LLJ increase in speed. The wind may be gusting to 20KT with mixing during the aftn, which may preclude mention of WS then, but the sfc wind lightens a little through the evening. So, after 23Z is the more- possible time for LLWS.

Upper heights do not fall at all until later Sun night at which time the increase in moisture and lift aloft will touch off patchy light rain. Cigs and vis will be reduced in periods of rain Monday and Tuesday.

Outlook.

Mon . Widespread SHRA/MVFR. IFR and LLWS poss.

Tues . CFROPA during the day, widespread SHRA ahead of it, -SN poss after.

Wed . Restrictions NW half lower cigs and sct -SHSN. Breezy NW wind.

Thurs . No sig wx.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Martin/Steinbugl NEAR TERM . DeVoir/Martin/Steinbugl SHORT TERM . Martin/Steinbugl LONG TERM . Martin/RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION . Dangelo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi52 min S 5.1 G 8.9 41°F 48°F1031.8 hPa (-1.8)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi52 min SE 11 G 12 40°F 1032.2 hPa (-1.8)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8 42°F 44°F1032.4 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi59 minS 14 G 2210.00 miFair41°F21°F45%1031.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NW5NW5W5SW3CalmNE3E4E3CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE5S7S11S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:33 AM EST     0.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:39 PM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-00.10.40.70.91110.80.60.50.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.