Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:38PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:47 PM EDT (03:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Isolated showers and tstms late this evening.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of barry will move into the western atlantic through tonight. High pressure will build over the southeastern states for Friday into the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night, and cross the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 190249
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1049 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
----dangerous heat and humidity possible this weekend---
we will be dealing with hazy, hot and very humid conditions
until early next week when some relief is in sight. Dangerous
heat will build Friday and Saturday, with heat indices peaking
on Saturday afternoon, easily exceeding 100 over southern and
especially southeastern areas.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Surface ridging over the region should translate to a mostly
clear night with light wind. Plenty of low level moisture,
combined with a calm wind, should promote patchy late night
valley fog across the eastern half of the state. Over the
western counties, a light breeze may limit the fog potential.

It will be a warm and muggy night across the entire region with
latest guidance supporting min temps in the upper 60s to low
70s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Hoisted widespread heat advys and excessive heat warnings - many
of which will last into sat. Tried to time place them
appropriately with just a bit of a broad brush. While numbers
may not get to 100 everywhere over the alleghenies laurels, it
will be close, and will likely get there in the valleys. The
chance for the convective cloud debris running overhead from the
nw and some isold sct convection could keep temps down and bust
up the heat index values. Will hold onto some low chc pops for
the NRN tier with short wave energy running in from the nw, but
it will be running into the warm air aloft.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Excessive heat peaks this weekend. Maximum heat index values
reach the 105 to 110 range Saturday before lowering slightly
on Sunday. Excessive heat watch remains in effect Sat and sun
for areas from chambersburg to williamsport and east. Will
also continue to highlight heat risk via hwo, social media and
dss briefings in addition to the watch.

Very warm mid-level temperatures look to limit cap t-storms
fri-sat. That said, models hint at the potential for mcs
activity propagating along wavy frontal zone on the northern
periphery of summertime upper ridge heat dome. By Sunday, that
fron begins to track slowly across CWA as upper trough begins to
work in from the great lakes. With surface heat dome in place,
expect convection to become more numerous Sun aft into sun
night.

Flow is fast and strong across the us and canada border overall
for mid july, but we are south of the main westerlies. The
airmass is warmer than what we have seen lately. 1991 and 1995
featured such warm air. In this case, the warmest air is
advected toward buf late Friday. Warmest air for central pa is
Friday into Saturday. 850 mb temperatures fcst to be near plus
24 degrees at 850 mb late Friday across lake erie. Will be
interesting to see how fast water temperatures come up on lake
erie by next week.

A cool down is expected to begin next Monday along with a break
in the oppressive humidity as the mean upper level trough is
nearby. Monday could still be muggy over the SE where scattered
tstms will continue, but overall trend will be that temperatures
of 10-20f above normal over the weekend will retreat back to
near july normals during the work week.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
The showers to the S E of mdt will slide se, and should not be
a factor after 22z at lns. The next worry would be for fog, but
only mentioning some MVFR fog for now for the overnight. Low
clouds may try to form with a slight upslope over the WRN mtns
(jst bfd), but held off on any ifr mentions.

Shra tsra should be nearing bfd late in the morning, so I did
add in a mention of TS late in the TAF period. Otherwise, looks
vfr with light wind for fri.

Friday night and Saturday will still have a threat of isold
shra tsra, mainly in the aftn.

Outlook
Sat-sun... MainlyVFR with isolated to widely scattered pm
thunderstorms possible. Heat humidity will make the density
altitude much higher - takeoffs landings will take more
distance.

Mon... Still a chance of showers and storms as cfropa occurs mon
or Mon pm.

Tues... No sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for
paz004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for paz028-036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

Heat advisory from 8 pm Saturday to 8 pm edt Sunday for paz028-
036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

Excessive heat warning from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for
paz019-025>027-034-035-045.

Heat advisory from noon Friday to noon edt Saturday for paz019-
025>027-034-035-045.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Fitzgerald
short term... Dangelo
long term... Rxr
aviation... Dangelo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi54 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 85°F 83°F1011.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi48 min S 6 G 6 84°F 1011.6 hPa (+0.6)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi54 min S 2.9 G 5.1 85°F 86°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S6SE5W3CalmS5S4S5W53NW5W7NW10NW12N9N12N7NW8NW9NW5W3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5SW4S4SW56W9NW6W3CalmS11S6S6SE7S6S6Calm
2 days agoE6E4CalmCalmCalmE4E5SE3S6S34S56SW7SW5SW7W10E4SE6SE3CalmNW3NW3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:57 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:12 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:14 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.40.60.81.11.41.61.71.61.51.210.70.60.50.50.70.91.11.21.11

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.