Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:43PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 8:01 PM EDT (00:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:52PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 736 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms this evening.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through this afternoon. Low pressure will develop to the south tonight through Thursday and it will pass by to the east Friday. A cold front will pass through the waters Saturday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 072335 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 735 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Stubborn low clouds remain locked in across much of the Susquehanna Valley and South-Central Mountains today, thanks to moisture from yesterday's widespread showers and thunderstorms, and a southeasterly flow from the western Atlantic.

Otherwise, a hot and humid summertime pattern will continue through the rest of this week above normal temperatures, moderate to high humidity and scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. An upper level trough preceded by a potential coastal low will bring some relief from the hot weather but maintain unsettled and very muggy conditions through the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Low stratus deck that formed and advected westward from the Susq Valley to the Central Mtns made it about as far west as a KAOO to KUNV and KELM line late this morning, but has been very reluctant to erode from its outside edges so far this afternoon, therefore breaking the streak of 90 degree days in Williamsport and in the larger Metro areas throughout the Lower Susq Valley.

Latest RAP guidance holds little hope for significant clearing late today in our SE zones, though cloud bases will lift another several hundred feet and go bkn for 3-5 hours late today as mean low level winds veer around more to the south.

There is still a slice of clearing near and to the east of the Allegheny Front where the NW edge of the stratus deck made it do then eroded with sfc based parcels yet to reach the LCL and form growing CU.

TCU and some showers/isolated TSRA continue to form across the Alleghenies of Western PA where sfc based cape is around 2000 j/kg within a north/south ribbon of llvl theta-e convergence was occurring between I-99 and Rt 219.

Max temps will be notably cooler than recent days across the SE half of the CWA thanks to the aforementioned thick stratus, while highs elsewhere will still run 5-10 degrees above daily climo for early July in most places with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. What a sneaky way for Mother Nature to break the 5 day string of 90+ F days at MDT and IPT, and thwart the potential record number of 90+ F days - exceeding 10 days at locations throughout the Susq Valley. See Climo section below.

Heat stress will not be a signif concern for the rest of the day thanks to the clouds in the typically hottest and most humid part of the state. Heat indices will be in the mid 80s to low 90s.

After the convection dissipates across the west this evening, low clouds will likely stay or reform across much of eastern PA tonight and linger through mid morning Wed.

Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 60s across the Northern and Western mtns, to the low 70s in the SE metro areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Persistent hot/humid summertime pattern sizzles on through midweek with high temps ranging from the mid 80s (Mtns) to low 90s in the Southern Valleys.

Latest HREFV2 and a host of other model guidance shows PM t-storms (most likely non-severe) developing once again across CPA within prefrontal confluence zone amid ample low- level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints) and modest buoyancy (1-1.5K J/kg MLCAPE). Expect similar evolution of storms fading out into Wednesday night with the loss of heating.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. After the weak trough moves east into the Canadian Maritimes Wed night, a ridge of high pressure will develop over the northeast on Thu, bringing drier weather and partly sunny skies. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will develop beneath the ridge near the North Carolina coast. Can't rue out a few showers popping up along a weak sfc boundary lingering between the departing trough and the approaching coastal low.

The coastal low will turn winds out of the SE and E for Fri, bringing an increase in humidity and clouds over the eastern half of the CWA. The bulk of the precip associated with the coastal low looks to fall east of the area, but showers and storms are possible Fri afternoon-night.

The weekend looks unsettled as an upper trough digs over the eastern US and interacts with the coastal low. Cooler temps aloft and plenty of clouds should bring a period of relief to the heat, with afternoon highs just a couple degrees above average Fri-Tue. Meanwhile, the 500 mb ridge over the desert Southwest will continue to build to near 600 dam by Sat. Heat from this ridge looks to spill back into our area by Wed of next week after the eastern trough moves offshore.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 00z, a patch of MVFR low clouds persists over the central mountains, and is beginning to build northward towards UNV. The Lower Susq Valley airfields /MDT and LNS/ are VFR, with cigs having risen to around 4k feet. A few SHRA/TSRA persist over the western and northern highlands in the vicinity of JST and BFD, so kept mention of VCTS at those airfields until a couple hours after sunset.

Expecting the overnight to look a lot like last night, with lingering convection dissipating after sunset and low clouds developing and expanding over the central and eastern airfields. MVFR cigs are expected east of the Allegheny Front, and the Susq Valley could see cigs dipping close to IFR again. There may be some brief vsby reductions at BFD and JST in fog before daybreak on Wed.

Wednesday will see the low clouds gradually dissipate, with afternoon convection popping up once again.

Outlook .

Wed . Reductions possible in patchy AM fog/low cigs and scattered PM SHRA/TSRA.

Thu . Generally VFR.

Fri . Reductions possible in patchy AM fog/low cigs and showers/storms (mainly SE).

Sat . Showers and storms with reductions likely.

Sun . Generally VFR.

CLIMATE. A sustained period of above-average temperatures is expected to continue through the end of the week. A heat wave is defined as 3 or more days with temperatures greater than or equal to 90 degrees. Here are some facts about previous heat waves from Harrisburg (MDT) Williamsport (IPT), and State College (STC), which have climate periods of record dating back to the late 1800s.

Recent high temperatures: 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 Current 90-deg streak IPT: 95 95 91 93 94 5 days MDT: 93 97 94 96 97 5 days STC: 89 90 88 89 90 1 day

Longest stretch of consecutive 90 degree days: IPT: 15 (July 4 - July 18, 1988) MDT: 11 (5 times, most recently July 22 - August 1, 1999) STC: 15 (July 4 - July 18, 1988)

Annual occurrences of 90 degree days: Average Most (Year) Least (Year) 2020 (thru 7/6) IPT: 16 42(1988) 0 (1979) 6 MDT: 20 60(1966) 3 (2004) 8 STC: 8 35(1988) 0 (11 times) 3

How common are stretches of 5 or more consecutive 90 degree days? IPT: 15 times since 2000 (12 of 20 years) MDT: 19 times since 2000 (12 of 20 years)* STC: 4 times since 2000 ( 4 of 20 years)

*MDT had a stretch of 10 straight 90 degree days from July 3 - July 12, 2012. Time will tell if this year's 90 degree stretch that began on July 2 can rival the streak 8 years ago.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Lambert/Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Lambert SHORT TERM . Lambert/Steinbugl LONG TERM . Colbert AVIATION . Evanego CLIMATE . Lambert


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi43 min SSE 9.9 G 13 83°F1015.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi43 min SSE 11 G 13 1015.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi43 min NNE 4.1 G 8 85°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi68 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F70°F63%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6E4E8E11E7S13NW3SW3CalmS3E5E3Calm3S3SE4E5SE4E4SE6E7E5E5S4
1 day agoS12S7S6S8S7S3SE4SE3SE4S4S5CalmCalm3W6S3CalmS54SE54S76S9
2 days agoSE3E4E3CalmCalmS3E4E5NE3E4CalmNW3CalmCalmN5NW4Calm--N345SE6S7SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:29 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:47 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.30.40.611.31.61.71.71.61.41.10.90.60.50.40.50.711.11.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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