Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Toms River, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:33PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 6:54 PM EST (23:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:41PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201912111100;;162745 Fzus51 Kphi 102330 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 630 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-111100- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 630 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this evening and early morning, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain until early morning, then rain or snow late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain early in the morning. Snow in the morning, then a chance of snow early in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less in the late morning and early afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sat..S winds around 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 630 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will push through the area this evening as low pressure passes to our northeast. Strong high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and then move offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the mid-atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region for the start of the new week, before another storm system approaches from the south late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Toms River , NJ
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location: 39.95, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 102346 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 646 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push through the area this afternoon/evening as low pressure passes to our northeast. Strong high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and then move offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region for the start of the new week, before another storm system approaches from the south late Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/. An upper level jet streak is now positioned to our north with rain showers forecast to continue developing into the overnight. At the surface, a cold front is making its way toward eastern PA and will cross the forecast area through the evening hours and will be offshore by midnight. There will be an enhancement in the precipitation as the front itself moves through this evening so I've kept likely to categorical PoPs in the forecast.

Temperatures have warmed well into the 50s and low 60s across the area thanks to warm air advection in the wake of a warm front now located well to our north. As the front passes, winds will shift westerly and temps/dewpoints will being to drop quickly into the 40s and 30s.

SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, another quick shot of light to moderate precipitation is forecast to develop. This is in response to a shortwave trough ejecting northeastward from the Tennessee Valley along with an area of frontogenesis developing behind the exiting cold front. Hi-res guidance develops a modest band of precip across the forecast area a few hours after midnight, then the band will persist and move offshore by around 10 AM. As cold air advection continues overnight, rain will mix with and change to all snow from northwest to southeast from midnight to about daybreak area wide. Some sleet is also possible across Delmarva and southern NJ where the warm nose persists a bit longer.

The heaviest snowfall will be before daybreak on Tuesday north/west of I-95. This is the area where confidence is highest on accumulating snowfall since temperatures will be colder. However, less QPF is forecast in these areas so many areas may end up with less than an inch. For the I-95 corridor, the heaviest snowfall is forecast to fall from about 4-7AM. Farther south across southern and coastal NJ as well as Delmarva, snowfall will end by around 10-11 AM.

With antecedent conditions being quite warm, we do expect there to be very poor efficiency in accumulating any snow, especially on roads. Most of the snow will only stick to grassy and elevated surfaces where it can fall quickly enough and temps can cool to near freezing. Therefore, we aren't expecting any significant travel issues, however there may be some slushy spots on roads causing them to become slippery.

As far as total snow accumulations, we're expecting a coating around an inch or so for most areas, with less than an inch across Delmarva and extreme southern NJ. Farther north and east, isolated areas up to 2" are possible. This is mainly confined to areas that will be colder at the onset of snow and areas that will receive snow for longer as the band of precip is moving offshore. The highest uncertainty for snow amounts is across Monmouth and Ocean Counties where banding and moderate snow may persist longer potentially leading to higher totals.

Morning low temperatures will likely occur while snow is falling and will be within a degree or two of the freezing mark. Skies will clear quickly in the wake of the departing band of precip as much drier air advects in from the west. Temperatures will then rise into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees by the afternoon hours with westerly winds around 10 mph, so whatever snow does fall will likely be all melted by the end of the day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Summary: Cold and dry Thursday, then cloudy and a bit warmer with a chance of showers Friday, with heavier rainfall expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Largely dry weather Sunday into Monday before another storm system approaches from the south late Monday into Tuesday.

Dailies:

Thursday: Strong (1040 mb) High Pressure builds in from the west with cold and dry conditions prevailing. Although it will be mostly sunny highs will only reach the 20s in the Poconos and generally mid 30s elsewhere. Guidance has become more bullish on bringing in some lower cloud cover Thursday night so nudged mins a couple degrees to account for this possibility.

Friday: The high will move into the Gulf of Maine and towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, with east to southeast flow developing behind the it. Temperatures warm back up to near and slightly above normal levels on (e.g. from the upper 30s in the Poconos to lower 50s in Delmarva).

Some showers will be possible during the daytime hours on Friday as lead shortwave energy & an UL jet streak combine with isentropic upglide. Generally expect these to remain relatively light and be mostly rain (although a period of mix will be possible in the far north).

Friday night/Saturday . A period of moderate rainfall is expected as a strengthening coastal low moves in from the south. Lift provided by the system's warm (potentially occluded) front, and the exit region of the curved UL jet will combine with PWATS around 1.25 inches to create a potential for some locally heavy rainfall Friday night/Saturday morning. Right now most guidance is hinting at totals in the 1-1.5 inch range although some ensemble members show the potential for even higher amounts. If the higher end scenarios were to verify there could be some hydro concerns, but this will become more clear in the coming days.

Some additional precipitation (still mostly rain) is possible Saturday afternoon/night as northern branch energy interacts with the system's cold front.

Sunday/Monday . Some light precipitation will be possible Sunday morning as a last piece of shortwave energy pivots through although there isn't much moisture left to work with. Otherwise high pressure will build in more or less overhead by Monday. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Sunday, before cooling off 5-10 degrees behind the dry cold front on Monday.

Monday night/Tuesday . The next storm system (of southern stream origin) will likely impact the area in this time frame although timing discrepancies exist (the Canadian is the fastest, the GFS intermediate, and the EC the slowest). There are also significant differences in the low's track and thermodynamic profiles. Since it is so far out went with a pure rain/snow forecast this package, but depending upon the low's track and how entrenched the antecedent cold air is, there is certainly some potential for mixed precipitation (the Canadian in particular is keying in on this). This system will certainly bear watching over the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . A period of VFR ceilings/visibility this evening, with a TEMPO for MVFR conditions along with some light rain, then conditions lower to MVFR and IFR overnight as rain mixes with and changes to snow from west to east. The changeover to snow should be in the 06z-10z time frame. There is the potential for a burst of snow toward daybreak from west to east, however the positioning and timing of this is of low confidence. For now, included a period of lowered visibility to 1-2SM once the change to snow occurs. Snow accumulations should be a coating to an inch or so, with most on grassy surfaces. West-northwest to northwest winds mostly 8-12 knots, however some local gusts to 20 knots are possible especially this evening.

Wednesday . MVFR/IFR conditions through about 15z as snow ends from west to east, then conditions rapidly improve to VFR. Northwest to west-northwest winds 8-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots (the gusts should occur late morning and afternoon). Moderate confidence with the MVFR/IFR conditions early, then high confidence with the rapid improvement to VFR. Outlook . Wed night thru Thu night . VFR expected. Winds mostly under 10 knots.

Fri . VFR early then lower CIGS and VSBYS with rain and fog late.

Fri night thru Sat night . Lower CIGS/VSBYS with rain and fog. Gusty winds expected.

Sunday . VFR. Gusty winds.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory was extended through the end of the Short Term period (and into the Long Term period). Waves of 4-5 feet are possible through much of the day Wednesday despite winds forecast to be below criteria during the day. There will be a surge of westerly winds overnight tonight with gusts of 20-25 kts. Winds will diminish toward daybreak then another stronger surge of wind is forecast to develop Wednesday evening with westerly winds gusting 25-30 kts.

Outlook . Wednesday night/Thursday . W/NW wind gusts over 25 kts are expected to persist into Wednesday night before dropping below criteria by Thursday morning. Seas initially 3-4 ft are expected to decrease to 2-3 ft by late Thursday.

Friday . Increasing easterly winds and building seas expected, especially later in the day, but expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the daytime hours. East winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Friday night through Saturday . East winds will continue to increase Friday evening and gusts are expected to approach 25 knots by Saturday morning while seas build to over 5 ft by Saturday morning. Winds will then turn to south and then west on Saturday. An SCA will likely be needed in this period.

Saturday night through Sunday . Westerly wind gusts likely increase above 25 kts in this period and may even approach gale force on Sunday. Seas will be initially 5-7 ft and potentially decrease to around 5 ft by the end of the period.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Staarmann Short Term . Staarmann Long Term . Carr Aviation . Gorse/O'Hara Marine . Carr/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 26 mi55 min 50°F7 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 32 mi85 min WSW 5.1 56°F 1014 hPa55°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi61 min WNW 7 G 8 54°F 40°F1014.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 37 mi79 min W 7 G 8.9 53°F 39°F1013.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 37 mi61 min W 12 G 13 52°F 44°F1013.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 39 mi45 min W 7.8 G 12 52°F 1013.5 hPa50°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 43 mi61 min 56°F 47°F1014.8 hPa
BDSP1 47 mi61 min 55°F 1013.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi61 min 55°F 46°F1013.1 hPa
MHRN6 48 mi61 min W 12 G 19
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi61 min W 15 G 18 56°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ5 mi59 minW 610.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1014.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ9 mi1.9 hrsW 1110.00 miLight Rain55°F52°F90%1012.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ16 mi59 minW 710.00 miOvercast55°F54°F96%1013.7 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ22 mi59 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE4S10S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Toms River (town), Toms River, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Toms River (town)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:24 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM EST     0.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:38 PM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10000.10.20.30.40.50.40.40.30.20.10-000.10.20.30.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:16 AM EST     2.40 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:37 PM EST     -2.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:31 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:55 PM EST     1.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-1.7-0.60.71.82.42.21.50.7-0.3-1.2-2-2.6-2.7-1.9-0.70.61.61.91.60.90.1-0.8-1.5

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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