Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Toms River, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front passes through the region this morning and cooler and drier air builds into the region.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front passes through the region this morning and cooler and drier air builds into the region.

The initial cold front is well offshore, and a secondary cold front will pass through the region early this morning. An upper level low over the Great Lakes will lift to the northeast, and low pressure will meander over the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds to the south and west.

Once the secondary cold front moves through the region this morning, a tight pressure gradient forms between low pressure to the north and east and high pressure to the south and west.
Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts this afternoon. Much cooler and drier with highs in the 50s to low 60s and dew points in the 30s to low 40s.

Heading into the second half of the weekend, the upper-level low departs to the north and east as shortwave ridging moves in.
The pressure gradient also relaxes some as the surface low pull farther away into Atlantic Canada. This will result in a lighter breeze with slightly warmer temperatures compared to Saturday and a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the low 60s following morning lows mainly ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Generally dry and fair weather looks to dominate for early through mid next week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...Primarily VFR. However, patchy fog may result in localized VSBY reductions at the TAF sites, mainly as low as IFR, but cannot rule out brief VSBYs as low as 1/4SM.
After 09Z, W-NW winds will begin to increase to around 10 kt, and much drier air will filter into the region, and conds should lift to VFR. W-NW winds will begin to gusts to 20 kt prior to 12Z. Moderate confidence.

Today...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR. Gusty WNW winds possible on Monday. Otherwise, no significant weather.

MARINE
A secondary cold front will move across the waters this morning.
High pressure will build into the south-central United States while low pressure moves into the Northeast United States and Canadian Maritimes. A tight pressure gradient develops over the waters this weekend.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all of the Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay with no changes. For the Atlantic coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 4 AM through 6 AM Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay is also for 4 AM through 6 AM Sunday. The Atlantic coastal water zones from Great Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook goes from 10 AM to 6 AM Sunday.
The Small Craft Advisories are for west-northwest winds 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kts amd seas of 3 to 5 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...The wind and seas will gradually diminish Sunday morning. After a brief lull, the wind and seas look to increase again Sunday night into Monday with SCA conditions probable for this period. On Monday night, winds and seas decrease. Another period of SCA conditions are possible on Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-453>455.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ450>452.