Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dover Beaches South, NJ

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Dreary conditions and showery weather with periods of mist/drizzle will continue through the day as the stalled boundary continues to be the trigger for weak showers. Relative humidities in the 0-2km layer remains above 90% and light WAA in the 1000-850mb layer there's enough lift and moisture to see areas of light rain/drizzle throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Its by no means a washout, but I'd anticipate most of the area should see at least some light rain. With PWATs in the 1.25-1.75" range and warm cloud depths in the 12-13kft range, rainfall could end up being heavy at times even though overall accumulation numbers should be small.

Temps this afternoon topping out in the mid 60s to mid 70s under widespread cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled weather continues through Wednesday. Weak low pressure starts to approach from the west this evening, and will start to lift the stationary boundary located south of the region back north as a warm front. The front should be slow to move through the region and will likely not reach the area until late Tuesday. Again, with modest WAA and sufficient low level moisture, we'll see mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers from time to time, with one shot coming late Monday night through Tuesday morning, and then another shot Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will be a bit warmer owing to the light WAA, generally in the low to mid 70s north of the Fall Line and in the upper 70s south of the Fall Line.

With the warm front north of the area on Wednesday, warm air advection will be underway, and highs will be in the mid to upper 80s throughout and low 90s towards the Pines and DelMarVa.
Several shortwaves will pass through the region, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The pattern finally looks to change for the end of this week and into the weekend. Bermuda high pressure sets up offshore and strong WAA will result in a hot and increasingly humid airmass into the region on Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s throughout, and surface dew points will be in the low 70s. Max Heat Index values will be in the upper 90s throughout, and Heat Advisories may be needed. The NWS HeatRisk categories are forecast to be between level 2 to level 3 indicating that the early season heat will likely affect anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration.

The second impact from Thursday will be the convection associated with a strong cold front passing through the region late Thursday and Thursday night. This will spark off afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a 15% risk for severe weather across portions of the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic on Thursday.

From there, conditions become settled into the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north and west. An upper trough passing through the region on Friday may touch off some showers across northern zones, but the majority of the area should stay dry with highs in the low to mid 80s and lower dew points. Sunny and warm conditions continue into Saturday.

Another cold front may result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z.. MVFR/IFR expected through the night trending towards IFR by daybreak. Light rain may briefly pass through producing MVFR visibilities along with IFR cigs. Cannot rule out some patchy fog and lower visibility, but guidance has lower chances of reduced visibility compared to the previous few nights. East- northeast winds around 3-8 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Monday...IFR conditions to continue for most of Monday with little improvements. Have introduced Prob30's to cover the threat of the light rain showers through the middle portion of the day. East- northeast winds around 10 kt. MVFR VSBYs expected in any drizzle. Low- moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR CIGs /VSBYs in fog, stratus, and scattered SHRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR. Scattered TSRA possible with brief sub-VFR conditions, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR. Scattered afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA with brief sub-VFR conditions.

Friday...VFR.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through Monday. East- northeast winds around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 18-20 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet. Periods of showers, drizzle, and mist expected to continue through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through the week with max wind gusts below 20 kt and seas in the 2 to 4 ft range. VSBY restrictions in showers and fog through Tuesday night. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday and Thursday with locally stronger winds and higher waves.

Rip Currents...

For Monday, winds will be out of the northeast and nearly perpendicular to shore around 10-20 MPH, with 2 to 4 foot waves within the surf zone. Multiple swell groups are expected as well, with the longest period being around 8 to 9 seconds. This will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents for all beaches.

For Tuesday, winds turn to be a bit more east-southeasterly and decrease to around 10 MPH. Swell remains onshore but the number of swell groups look to consolidate with the period decreasing to 6-7 seconds. Breaking waves in the surf zone look to decrease to 2-3 feet as a result. The combination of these factors look to lead to a decreasing risk for the development of rip currents, so at this time a LOW risk is forecast for the beaches south of Atlantic City and MODERATE for the northern Jersey Shore beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.