Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 2:39 PM   Moonset 2:22 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1034 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will progress offshore this weekend. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS61 KCTP 180231 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1031 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A decaying frontal system will keep showers over mainly western and central portions of central Pennsylvania overnight. Low pressure passing well to the south of Pennsylvania will bring additional showers to central Pennsylvania into Saturday afternoon, followed by high pressure and dry weather arriving for Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are expected through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Decaying frontal system and upper level shear axis sagging into western and central PA this evening has maintained scattered to numerous showers through late evening. Leading edge of shower activity has been very slow to progress eastward tonight, but a weak 850 mb jet and persistent WSW flow aloft associated with 5H shear axis moving into western PA is finally nudging the showers farther east late this evening. Far eastern/southeastern areas may not see showers arrive until a few hours before sunrise, and even then they will be quite light.

Aforementioned shear axis will continue to maintain sct to numerous showers overnight, with moist southeast upslope flow enhancing showers in favored terrain while also supporting low clouds/cigs and fog. Should breaks develop over my northwest counties, dense fog could develop overnight, but confidence at this time is low for the NE Ohio cloud breaks to overspread the NW Mountains through midnight. More likely that fog thickens in the predawn hours and midnight shift will need to consider fog headlines overnight. Lows in the 55-60F range are +5-15F above mid May climo with the larger departures across the western and northern Alleghenies.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
No changes seen for Saturday as we'll have yet another weekend day to start the weekend. The morning and afternoon will feature plenty of clouds, periods of light rain/showers, and areas of fog. Hires model data focuses the bulk of the rain early in the day, becoming more scattered through the afternoon into the evening. Cool air damming (CAD) pattern with moist east southeast flow will result in highs of 60-65F across the southeast half of the CWA (5-10F below climo), and warmer readings over the NW mountains aided by downslopping with 70-75F expected there. Continued to temper NBM with blend of raw hires model data given typical downside risk for cooler temps in this type of CAD pattern setup.

Sunday is looking increasingly nice with high pressure eventually allowing a good deal of sunshine throughout and salvaging the second half of the weekend. Decreasing deep layer moisture and a northerly wind component along with ridging at the sfc and aloft should help highs recover nicely with temps around 80F fcst in the NW Alleghenies and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

We are likely to see some areas of fog both Saturday night and Sunday night, and temps will continue to trend warmer with dry weather persisting into early next week with highs on Monday reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A dry start to the extended period will be likely with high pressure ridging building over the mid-atlantic region and a deep surface low parked over the central plains. High pressure and dry air will stay in place through Tuesday before the upper level trough pushes them both out by Wednesday afternoon. 850mb temps of near 16C along with surface warm air advection suggest high temperatures could reach the mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

By the middle of next week, upper troughing will move across Pennsylvania and support a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, there remains plenty of model uncertainty about the timing of a cold front. The mean timing is Wednesday afternoon, but individual models bring precipitation as early as Tuesday evening and as a late as Thursday morning.
If the front moves through Wednesday afternoon or evening, it could produce the first threat for severe weather in some time given the aforementioned WAA bringing greater instability.

After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. A chance of showers remains in place through the end of the week despite zonal flow aloft providing little in the way of synoptic forcing. The next chance for a widespread soaking rain will come during the weekend with a center of low pressure developing across the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Current observations outline MVFR conds at airfields west of UNV with VFR conds continuing across E PA as rain overspreads central PA this evening. A gusty line of showers has recently knocked down conds briefly to IFR thresholds with gusts pushing 25kts at JST but this line has generally weakened. Pockets of IFR conds are also prevalent across NW PA (BFD) and are slated to continue throughout the rest of the evening with brief bounces up towards low-end MVFR conds in the very near-term.

IFR cigs are likely (> 80% confidence) over the western highlands later overnight. There is some uncertainty with regards to fog formation overnight. Recent model guidance has backed off on LIFR conds at BFD, but have opted to continue with lowered vsbys and cigs this TAF package as fairly moist low- levels with rain tapering off this evening does still hint towards some fog formation across the NW. JST seems the most likely at this time (80-90% probability) and have lowered cigs/vsbys around sunrise for a two-three hour window. The final airfield of concern is AOO, but generally think that a light breeze will keep fog concerns lower.

Further to the east, VFR conds are expected to continue with gradual lowering of cigs as SHRA continues approaching the airfields (IPT/MDT/LNS). A gradual decline in cigs is expected with conds trending towards MVFR in the 04-07Z Saturday timeframe, with IFR conds expected in the 08-11Z timeframe. Once IFR conds take hold, expect them to continue towards the end of the TAF period (00Z Sunday) with some bounces towards low-end MVFR thresholds. If any improvement does occur, the far west airfields are most likely to see any improvement after 20Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Sun...Morning low cigs/fog possible. Becoming VFR by afternoon.

Mon...Patchy AM fog possible. Otherwise, becoming VFR.

Tue...Predominantly VFR, w/ no sig wx expected.

Wed...Sct to widespread SHRA/TSRA will return.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Fri -- 02:05 AM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:30 PM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 PM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Fri -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:17 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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