Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavallette, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As we go through tonight, a rather mild to warm night for the region ahead of a cold front although the cold front will be working its way across parts of the region overnight. An upper- level trough will pivot across the eastern Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, however the main forcing looks to track to our north. A cold front tied to this feature though will arrive in our area.

The earlier MCS which affected Western and Central PA has diminished to an area of clouds and showers as of 930PM. What is left of the activity is moving across the southern Poconos and northeast PA attm. The activity is becoming more disorganized but a few claps of thunder are possible thru midnight. More scattered showers are possible across NJ later tonight according to some mesoscale models. We have kept in some slight chc pops overnight in case these develop ahead of the cold front. Pop/Wx changes were recently performed and minor edits to temp/winds already done from earlier.

For Wednesday, we will be in a dry post frontal regime.
However, there is not much of a cold airmass behind the front, primarily a slight reduction in temperatures across the board as well as much lower dewpoints and lower relative humidity (see the Fire Weather section below for more fire weather details).
Any lingering clouds will clear out quickly in the morning, then another mostly sunny and warm day in expected. High temperatures are mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Northwest winds will be near 10-15 mph with some occasional gusts near 20-25 mph possible at times.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure centered north of the area will continue to dominate our weather Wednesday night through Thursday leading to mainly dry conditions. Wednesday night should be mainly clear with a mix of sun and clouds to follow for Thursday. Expect lows Wednesday night mainly in the 40s to low 50s with some 30s over the southern Poconos into parts of NW NJ. For Thursday, most inland areas (except the Pocono Plateau) will see seasonably warm temperatures with highs in the 70s. However an onshore flow from the southeast will keep it cooler for coastal counties with highs for these area mainly in the 60s.

For Thursday night through Friday, the next area of low pressure will advance northward from the midwestern states into the Great Lakes region and then on through Ontario towards Quebec. This will push a warm front through overnight Thursday night with warmer and more humid weather to follow by Friday as the flow becomes southwesterly. Generally expect highs Friday in the 80s except low to mid 70s right near the coast and over the southern Poconos. The day will also feature a bit more in the way of cloud cover compared to Thursday with the potential for some showers and storms to develop in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front moves into the area Friday night into early Saturday while at the same time a vigorous upper level disturbance rounds the base of the long wave trough over the east. Indications are that this may result in an area of low pressure developing in our general vicinity by early Saturday and this could slow the front down and keep things unsettled with periods of rain/showers lasting at least through Saturday morning and potentially right through the day. This will depend, however, on the speed of the front and the evolution of the low and this is still a bit uncertain.

For the latter half of the weekend into early next week, there is growing uncertainty regarding how the upper level pattern evolves. The trough over the east is likely to close off into a slow moving upper level low but there is considerable spread in our forecast models in terms of where this occurs. The deterministic GFS has generally been more progressive and closes it off farther east over the Canadian Maritimes however some of the GEFS ensemble members along with the ECMWF are suggesting it will set up farther west. This latter solution would keep us unsettled. Given the uncertainty, we stayed close to the NBM (National Blend of Models) which keeps at least chances for showers in the forecast (POPs 20-30 percent) Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR overall with an increase in mainly mid to high level clouds. Scattered showers will affect KRDG/KABE thru midnight. The showers should diminish before reaching other TAF sites but clouds will prevail much of the night. Southwest winds near 10-15 knots, shifting northwest between 09-12Z behind a cold front. Medium confid overall.

Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night into Thursday...VFR expected.

Thursday night through Saturday...periods of MVFR and even IFR with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Sunday...Mainly VFR favored.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory conditions for the ocean waters are expected to continue tonight as south to southwest winds of 15 with gusts 25-30 knots continue. For Delaware Bay, now that the winds have diminished, the SCA flag has been dropped.

For Wednesday, no marine hazards are expected with winds and seas improving. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Once seas subside below 5 ft Wednesday morning, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Friday...Southerly winds above 25 kt and seas above 5 ft are possible.

Saturday through Sunday...Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria.

FIRE WEATHER
For Wednesday, minimum relative humidity will range from around 20-30% with temperatures mostly in the 70s to low 80s. Relative humidity could locally drop as low as 15% near the Pine Barrens and Philly metro area. Northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible at times.

For Thursday, minimum relative humidity will range from around 25-35% with temperatures mostly in the 70s again. Southeast winds near 10 mph with gusts near 15-20 mph possible.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.