Lavallette, NJ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavallette, NJ

June 16, 2024 7:32 AM EDT (11:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 1:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 3 ft at 8 seconds.

Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and E 2 ft at 5 seconds.

Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 7 seconds.

Mon night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds.

Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 12 seconds.

Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ400 702 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - Surface high pressure across our area starts to shift offshore of new england today and will lift a warm front through on Monday. Building high pressure aloft all of next week will result in a prolonged stretch of hot and dry conditions with little to no rain chances.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavallette , NJ
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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 161026 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 626 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure across our area starts to shift offshore of New England today and will lift a warm front through on Monday. Building high pressure aloft all of next week will result in a prolonged stretch of hot and dry conditions with little to no rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:25AM...No major changes to the forecast at this time.
Conditions remain quiet across the region.

Surface high pressure will be centered just to the north of our region this morning. With time, this surface high will migrate eastward looking to shift just offshore for this afternoon and/or evening. Though we will still feel the influence of the surface high offshore through tonight, a warm front from the southwest will lift northwards and approach with time. This warm front is posed to cross through our region sometime Monday morning.

A dry forecast with quiet conditions is on tap for the near term.
Though the warm front will approach with time tonight, no precipitation is expected thanks to the strength and proximity of the surface high. Highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s anticipated for most areas today. Some areas of the urban corridor could touch the mid 80s while the coastal areas and high elevations see the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s anticipated for tonight, though the Poconos and higher elevations will see the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
***Heat Advisories Issued for Tuesday***

A building 500mb ridge across the Southeast U.S. will continue to expand north through the Mid Altantic through Monday as a surface high pressure system nudges offshore through Tuesday. The net effect of the high departing is that a warm front will lift through the region Monday with warm air advection just getting started. Heat will build through the week, with highs on Monday warming into upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low 60s. With dewpoints forecast to not be in the muggy territory, this leads to the overall Heat Risk to be in the Minor/Moderate categories for Monday where individuals participating in outdoor activities without effective cooling or hydration could be at risk of heat related illness.

On Tuesday, the ridge builds, subsidence enhances and temps are forecast to increase to the mid to upper 90s with slightly higher dewpoints. This increases the Heat Risk for PA and inland NJ to moderate with portions of the I95 corridor increasing to Major.
The concern with the heat is that the temps will be building throughout the week and externally, this is early season with increasing numbers of vulnerable communities/events due to school years ending and a federal holiday in the middle of the week. Based on current forecast max temperatures, several high temperature records may be challenged or set. Given these factors, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the I95 corridor north and west. Anyone sensitive to heat should take extra precaution during the day and unfortunately there is more below as the potential for excessive heat continues the rest of the week.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary...Excessive heat probable with little to no rain chances.

Guidance is unfortunately consistent with the idea that the forecasted upper air pattern continues to point toward an extended period of heat across much of the area (high temperatures 94F+ degrees). There's been almost no change to the forecast of an expansive and deep ridge that will be centered across our region with additional warming expected through Friday. The 00z GFS this morning came in with a higher than 600dm ridge centered over the PHI CWA at 500mb on Thursday.
That combined with well above normal 925/850 temps should see surface temps ranging into the upper 90s for most of the rest of the week for interior locales. At the minimum, heat advisories will likely extend beyond Tuesday with the potential to be upgraded to Excessive Heat Warnings due to the unprecedented early season heat impacts and duration over the region.

With warm air advection in place during the early potion of the week and strengthening of the 500mb high towards the end of the week, the latter half of the week is more likely to be the hottest. The heat dome will maintain surface high pressure to our east with the surface flow more out of the south. The southerly flow looks to be fairly light and the moisture advection is not much, and therefore surface dew points should not be crazy with this heat.
In addition, many days of hot temperatures tends to lower the dew points some during peaking and this can be enhanced some by a dry to drying ground. There will also not be much relief at night especially in the urban corridor with lows dropping only into the 70s. The southerly flow however should keep the coastal areas noticeably cooler than inland, and if the flow is light enough especially under this ridge then a sea breeze many days could get farther inland during the later afternoon hours. The ridge will feature plenty of dry air aloft which tends to limit cloud development and therefore rain especially given warm air aloft. As a result, convective chances are little to none.

Eventually guidance starts to indicate that the ridge will push southward some and elongates more west to east Friday into Saturday as a trough in south-central Canada starts to flatten the northern side of the ridge. The main concern for this event is that the multi- day heat tends to have more impacts especially in urban centers when combined with less relief at night creating vulnerable populations.
Heat Risk Impacts show Major impacts from Tuesday all the way through next Sunday.

Confidence is high in widespread heat related impacts across the region through Friday. Beyond the workweek, the ridge should be flattening some on the north side Saturday which lowers the heights some and also the temperatures aloft. However despite this, the heat looks to certainly continue. There may also be some opportunity for a few showers or thunderstorms especially for our northern zones which will be closer to the Canadian trough. Given the presence of the ridge though, PoPs are only in the 20-30 percent range mainly across the northern into the central parts of the region at this point.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Winds generally 5-10 kts will veer from the NE to SE with time. Some sites may see periods of light and variable winds before ~18Z today. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. SSE/SE winds around 5-10 kts veering S with time.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR with no significant weather impacts anticipated.

MARINE
No marine headlines expected through Sunday night. NE to SE winds 8-12 kts today, S/SE winds 5-10 kts tonight. Seas 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

With lighter winds around 10 mph and lower waves of 2-3 feet on Sunday, there will be a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

On Monday, winds will increase back to 10-15 mph but look to be out of the south. This wind direction would result in largely shore parallel winds except for the more south facing beaches in Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Additionally, waves in the surf zone are forecast to remain 2-3 feet with a short-medium period swell. Combining all these factors together, we are forecasting a LOW risk for the development of rip currents on Monday for now.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ001- 007>010-012-013-015>020-027.
DE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44091 22 mi37 min 68°F2 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi33 minNE 16G18 65°F 67°F30.2155°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 34 mi45 minNE 8.9G12 70°F30.22
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 37 mi63 minW 1.9 59°F 30.2159°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi45 minNNE 4.1G7 76°F30.22
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi57 minN 1.9G4.1 62°F 30.19
MHRN6 46 mi45 minNNE 7G9.9
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 47 mi45 min 64°F30.13
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 47 mi45 minENE 9.9G12 30.22


Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMJX OCEAN COUNTY,NJ 13 sm36 minN 0510 smClear61°F52°F72%30.21
KBLM MONMOUTH EXECUTIVE,NJ 15 sm36 minNE 0810 smClear64°F54°F68%30.22
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Wind History graph: MJX
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Tide / Current for Ocean Beach, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
   
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Ocean Beach
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Sun -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:48 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Ocean Beach, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet
12
am
0.2
1
am
0.1
2
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0.1
3
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0.1
4
am
0.1
5
am
0.2
6
am
0.3
7
am
0.3
8
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0.3
9
am
0.3
10
am
0.3
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0.1
2
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0.1
3
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0.1
4
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0.1
5
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0.2
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0.2
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0.3
8
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0.4
9
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0.4
10
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0.4
11
pm
0.3


Tide / Current for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Sun -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:14 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:40 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:53 PM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots
12
am
-0.7
1
am
0.2
2
am
0.9
3
am
1.3
4
am
1.2
5
am
0.7
6
am
0.2
7
am
-0.4
8
am
-1
9
am
-1.4
10
am
-1.7
11
am
-1.6
12
pm
-0.9
1
pm
0.1
2
pm
1
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
1.7
5
pm
1.3
6
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0.7
7
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0
8
pm
-0.7
9
pm
-1.3
10
pm
-1.7
11
pm
-1.9


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