Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Burlington, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:38PM Monday February 17, 2020 7:53 AM EST (12:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:24AMMoonset 1:12PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 615 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain late in the morning. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 615 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure north of the great lakes will track east today and move into the canadian maritimes tonight. A warm front lifts north through the region Tuesday morning as low pressure approaches from the west and passes north of the area Tuesday through Tuesday night. A cold front moves through the region behind the departing low Tuesday night, and then a large area of arctic high pressure builds in from the west for the end of the week and next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burlington, NJ
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location: 39.98, -74.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 170816 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure north of the Great Lakes will track east today and move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A warm front lifts north through the region Tuesday morning as low pressure approaches from the west and passes north of the area Tuesday through Tuesday night. A cold front moves through the region behind the departing low Tuesday night, and then a large area of Arctic high pressure builds in from the west for the end of the week and next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A quiet weather day is on tap. Aloft, nearly zonal flow is present at mid and upper levels in the wake of a very weak cold front that moved through overnight. At the surface, an area of high pressure will slide to our north today. Some very weak cold advection will be occurring aloft behind the front, but it is barely noticeable with 850mb temperatures just a couple degrees below zero. Went on the warmer side of guidance for highs today as the combination of plentiful sunshine, dry air, and a strengthening February Sun should allow temperatures to warm nicely as we mix out. Dry conditions and light winds expected thanks to the nearby high pressure.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. High pressure shifts into northern New England then towards Atlantic Canada overnight. Meanwhile, a weak and fast moving area of low pressure will be tracking into the Great Lakes. We will see the usual evolution that occurs in these situations, with the timing such that a warm front will move in from the south during the second half of the night. As the front moves through, a robust low level warm advection regime will begin to develop. The best dynamics associated with this system remain to our west, where the 850mb LLJ will be near 70 kt. However, increasing low level southerly flow will start advecting warmer air into our region as well, and temperatures will likely start climbing slowly during the later hours of the night. Lows will be dependent on how long overrunning cloud cover holds off; went with a consensus approach similar to the previous forecast. Lack of dynamic forcing will mean that any precip overnight should be light at best and confined to the late hours of the night in the western zones. Many areas will remain dry through the night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will track into eastern Canada on Tuesday. A warm front lifts north through the region in the morning, and then a cold front passes through the region behind the departing low Tuesday night.

Not expecting much in the way of QPF with the passage of this frontal system, generally between 1/10-2/10 inch. The exception will be the southern Poconos, which will be closer to the low, where up to 1/3" liquid QPF is possible.

In terms of ptype, generally rain, although precip will start out as snow in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, and an inch or so of snow is possible before precip mixes with and changes over to rain in the late morning.

Precip tapers off Tuesday evening as the cold front works its way through the region, and the front will become nearly stationary south of Delmarva across the Mid-Atlantic. Some precip will spread pass along the that front and may work its way north into portions of southern Delaware and extreme southeast New Jersey Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, Arctic high pressure over the Northern Plains builds south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the end of the week. Low pressure will track along the aforementioned stationary boundary along the Mid-Atlantic and passes off the Southeast Coast by the end of the week as well, and have to watch how far north precip will be able to spread. For the most part, it should be dry, but will see how southern Delaware and southeast New Jersey are impacted.

Continued dry over the weekend as high pressure moves into the Southeast.

In terms of temperatures, the region will be in the warm sector on Tuesday and highs will be some 10-15 degrees above normal, generally ranging from the 40s north of the Fall Line, and in the mid to upper 50s south and east of the Fall Line. Temperatures trend back closer to normal on Wednesday, and then a period of 48-60 hours or so of below normal temperatures with highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, return flow sets up, and temperatures trend back to around and above normal levels over the weekend. With clear skies, light winds, and the Arctic airmass over the region, Thursday night looks to be the coldest night of the stretch, with lows in the teens, single digits in the southern Poconos, and the low 20s from Philadelphia to Wilmington and into Delmarva.

Looking ahead for the snow people: The AO remains strongly positive into the end of the month, likewise with the NAO, although not nearly as strong as the AO. Towards the end of the month, however, there are indications that the AO will trend to neutral, and the NAO likewise will trend towards neutral, if not slightly negative. 00Z/17 operational GFS showing strong low pressure moving through the East Coast, a sign fairly typical of a large-scale pattern change. However, it looks warm ahead of the low, so precip would be rain. Behind it, though, cold high pressure builds in for the start of March. Any weak systems could touch off some light snow, which could be more than has occurred in Philadelphia so far this year, but still no large- scale winter storms on tap. The other thing to consider is that going into March, which is the start of meteorological spring, the sun angle turns higher and average temps go up. While not impossible, it does get harder to get those big winter storms.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through this evening . VFR. Light winds expected. Wind direction may vary quite a bit due to the low speeds but should be mostly northerly, then becoming northeasterly this afternoon and evening. High confidence.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. Ceilings will begin to lower after 06z from southwest to northeast, but VFR conditions will likely hold for the entire night. Easterly winds around 5 kt initially will become southeasterly at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Tuesday night . MVFR and IFR conditions possible in rain. Some wintry mix possible at KRDG/KABE Tuesday morning. Precip tapers off from west to east Tuesday night, but low confidence on timing of improvement to VFR. East winds less than 10 kt, becoming SW late Tuesday, then NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight Tuesday night.

Wednesday . VFR. NW winds around 15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. High confidence.

Thursday through Friday . VFR. N-NW winds 10 kt or less. High confidence.

MARINE. Through this evening . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

Tonight . Expecting sub-SCA conditions to continue. Winds will turn easterly then southeasterly and could gust near to slightly above 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Generally sub-SCA conditions across all waters, however, occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible and seas may build close to 5 feet. East winds become SW Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night . SW winds Tuesday evening become NW Tuesday night and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas generally 3 to 4 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday . NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Wednesday morning diminish to 10-15 kt.

Thursday night through Friday . Northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts possible. Seas may build and approach 5 feet on the eastern edges of the ocean zones late Thursday into Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . MPS Aviation . MPS/O'Brien Marine . MPS/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 8 mi77 min 37°F 38°F1022.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 11 mi59 min N 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 37°F1023.3 hPa
BDSP1 14 mi53 min 38°F 1023.4 hPa (+2.3)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 17 mi53 min 40°F 40°F1022.7 hPa (+2.3)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi59 min 38°F 41°F1022.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 36 mi83 min WNW 2.9 37°F 1023 hPa30°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 48 mi53 min 40°F 42°F1023 hPa (+2.6)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi53 min N 5.1 G 6 40°F 46°F1023.1 hPa (+2.6)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi59 min 38°F 41°F1022.6 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ2 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair33°F27°F78%1023.1 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ12 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair31°F26°F80%1022.8 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA13 mi59 minNNW 610.00 miFair36°F26°F67%1023.3 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ21 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair32°F25°F75%1021.9 hPa
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA24 mi59 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy38°F26°F62%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVAY

Wind History from VAY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW7SW4W6SW54W5W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5Calm
1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalm33SW6SW9SW333S3S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW11
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N9N13N10N12N8N9N10N8N7N6N4CalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Hainesport, South Branch, Rancocas Creek, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:19 AM EST     1.73 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:59 AM EST     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:11 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:13 PM EST     1.34 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:15 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.6-1.2-0.40.91.71.61.50.9-0.3-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.20.91.31.31.20.3-0.9-1.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.