Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burlington, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 1245 AM, just some cirrus sliding across the area and no significant changes made with this update.

Otherwise, High pressure moves offshore overnight. Lows expected to drop into the mid 40s (north) and low 50s for the metros and Delmarva. Light winds expected overnight.

Warm air advection increases on Tuesday with temperatures well above average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, though cooler at the coasts. As a cold front approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten between that approaching front and high pressure off the Southeast Coast. Southwesterly winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Any showers and thunderstorms associated with that approaching front should hold off until Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Showers and storms associated with approaching cold front will likely be decaying as they move into the region during the night Tuesday. Have high chance POPs for furthest reaches of the Poconos, ramping down quickly to slight chance along I-95.
Latest outlook at time of writing places Poconos in a marginal risk for severe weather from any dying stronger storms which make it in, perhaps helped along by higher DCAPE since low levels will be a little dry. Lows will be in the 50s in the higher elevations and at the coast, but the low to mid 60s elsewhere thanks to southerly flow and clouds just ahead of the front.

Front slides south across the region during the morning and midday Wednesday. The progress looks a little slower, so temps will be noticeably cooler in the Poconos (60s) but only slightly cooler across I-95 (near 80 degrees), and Delmarva/far S NJ actually looks a bit warmer, helped along by an offshore flow behind the front before cold advection really gets going. Risk of convection across our southern zones with the front looks minimal, so just have some slight chance POPS in central Delmarva.

High pressure is more prominent in the forecast for Wednesday night, with enough clearing, drier air and radiational cooling to make it noticeably cooler than Tuesday night across the board. Lows mostly mid 40s to low 50s and close to 40 degrees in the coolest parts of the Poconos.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will begin retreating eastward again for Thursday, with increasing clouds and perhaps a stray shower later in the day across western areas as another warm front approaches. Highs mostly 70s, 60s shore and Poconos.

Better chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the warm front lifts through on the southeast side of low pressure passing to our northwest. This will hold lows up Thursday night, generally about 10 degrees milder than Wednesday night, with 50s and 60s common. Should break into the warm sector for Friday, with most areas outside the Poconos and shore reaching the 80s again...70s Poconos and shore.

Showers and t-storms likely impact the area later Friday into Friday night as the aforementioned cold front pushes across the region. Still lots of uncertainty about intensity, but we'll be watching any severe weather risk closely.

Latest guidance generally has the front clear our region by early Saturday, with a significantly cooler couple of days for next weekend. Highs will mostly be near 70 both days with 60s Poconos. Will need to watch potential for lingering clouds or even a shower wrapping in behind the front with the upper low for Saturday, but Sunday is more likely to be relatively dry and sunny. Lows Saturday night will be on the cool side again, with 40s common, 30s in the Poconos.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tuesday...VFR. Southwest winds near 5 knots or locally light and variable to calm through daybreak, then southwest winds 5-10 knots increasing to 12-18 knots with gusts up to 25 knots from late morning through the afternoon. High confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR with an increase in mainly mid to high level clouds. A few showers or a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out into the overnight hours mostly near KABE and KRDG, however the chances are to low to include a mention in the TAFs. Southwest winds 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots and becoming west to northwest closer to daybreak Wednesday. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

VFR should prevail again Wednesday and Wednesday night. Slight chance of showers returns Thursday with restrictions possible, but these are more likely Friday into Friday night and early Saturday when showers may be accompanied by thunder.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast to develop Tuesday afternoon as southwesterly winds increase with gusts 25-30 knots on the ocean zones. This will continue most of Tuesday night. It may take some time however for the stronger winds to reach the surface given much warmer air moving over the cool ocean water (water temperatures mostly in the 50s). Seas will also build in response to the period of stronger winds. For Delaware Bay, opted to issue a Small Craft Advisory for Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening as gusts to around 25 knots occur especially closer to the coast.

Outlook...

Conditions likely subside below SCA levels during the morning Wednesday as a cold front slips south of the area. Sub-SCA conditions should then prevail through Thursday before returning to SCA on southerly flow ahead of the next cold front on Friday. This front could also be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Conditions improving on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
On Tuesday, dew points will be rising, but temperatures will rise as well, and this will keep MinRH values low. MinRH values will range from 30 to 35 percent across most of New Jersey and Delaware, and from 35 to 40 percent across southeast Pennsylvania and the eastern shores of Delaware. Will be in contact with the state fire weather partners regarding the need for a Special Weather Statement.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.