Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Beach, NY
December 11, 2023 8:35 AM EST (13:35 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 4:26PM Moonrise 6:43AM Moonset 4:09PM
ANZ370 Expires:202310072130;;662343 Fzus71 Kokx 071832 Mwsokx
marine weather statement national weather service new york ny 232 pm edt Sat oct 7 2023
anz345-350-353-355-370-373-375-072130- 232 pm edt Sat oct 7 2023
.a cold front over the waters...
the areas affected include...
sandy hook nj to Montauk point out 40 nm...
long island south shore bays...
at 230 pm edt, doppler radar, and observations, indicated a cold front, capable of producing brief west to northwest wind gusts of 25 to gale force just behind the front.
the cold front was located along a line extending from 8 nm north of norwalk islands to 11 nm west of buoy 44025, moving east at 20 knots.
lat...lon 4067 7355 4067 7339 4073 7318 4076 7315 4073 7310 4078 7302 4076 7295 4081 7289 4076 7286 4082 7284 4081 7276 4084 7273 4082 7264 4090 7251 4088 7240 4097 7216 4023 7209 4003 7278 3995 7329 3989 7335
marine weather statement national weather service new york ny 232 pm edt Sat oct 7 2023
anz345-350-353-355-370-373-375-072130- 232 pm edt Sat oct 7 2023
.a cold front over the waters...
the areas affected include...
sandy hook nj to Montauk point out 40 nm...
long island south shore bays...
at 230 pm edt, doppler radar, and observations, indicated a cold front, capable of producing brief west to northwest wind gusts of 25 to gale force just behind the front.
the cold front was located along a line extending from 8 nm north of norwalk islands to 11 nm west of buoy 44025, moving east at 20 knots.
lat...lon 4067 7355 4067 7339 4073 7318 4076 7315 4073 7310 4078 7302 4076 7295 4081 7289 4076 7286 4082 7284 4081 7276 4084 7273 4082 7264 4090 7251 4088 7240 4097 7216 4023 7209 4003 7278 3995 7329 3989 7335
ANZ300 541 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A cold front will continue to push east of the region today as a deepening low pressure along moves into canada by this evening. High pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the new england coast Saturday night.
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A cold front will continue to push east of the region today as a deepening low pressure along moves into canada by this evening. High pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the new england coast Saturday night.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 111144 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 644 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will continue to push east of the region today as a deepening low pressure along moves into Canada by this evening. High pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the New England coast Saturday night.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast is on track with just minor adjustments.
A strong cold front has pushed east of the forecast area this morning. Rainfall rates behind the front remain rather low, around a tenth of an inch per hour.
As a result, the flood threat for much of the CWA has come to an end and most of the flood watch has been cancelled. The only exception is across portions of CT where the flood watch remains in effect for the potential for river flooding. River rises in CT can be expected, especially on the Yantic, where a flood warning is in effect.
The high wind warning and wind advisory headlines have been cancelled with the strongest winds moving east of the CWA.
Temperatures are falling behind the front. OKX observed a 7 degree drop in temperatures in about 10 minutes as the front moved through.
Across NW zones, particularly Orange County, where temperatures have already fallen into the middle and upper 30s, look for the precip to end as a brief period of snow. With surface temps likely still being above freezing any snow will have difficulty sticking, with perhaps a coating or so on the grassy surfaces.
The precipitation will gradually taper off this morning, with any lingering showers moving away to the northeast.
Skies are expected to start clearing from SW to NE form late morning through the afternoon. The pressure gradient will remain rather tight today, as the departing low continues to deepen and high pressure starts to arrive. Gusts of 35 to 40 mph appear to be a good bet for the mid to late morning as cold advection is maximized as the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the day and into the evening the pressure gradient begins to decrease somewhat. It will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler with 40s across the area into the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
High pressure builds from the southwest tonight. Winds will gradually decrease with gusts still around 20 to 25 mph at times during the evening. After midnight, expect clear skies any gusts ending. This will allow temperatures to fall to seasonably cold levels. Temperatures should get below freezing in most places with lows in the middle and upper 20s in the more rural area, to mainly lower 30s across the city and urban locations.
s
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
No changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri, will then maintain strong sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening cold frontal passage Friday night. Guidance has been trending towards hanging on to high pressure over the area through the weekend. As high pressure shifts east is where model spread starts to really increase. There is potential for another low pressure system to impact the area late Sunday, but large differences remain in timing, strength and location.
Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only slight chance to chance PoP for next Sunday. Near normal temps Tue- Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via ridging sfc and aloft.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The terminals remain in the wake of a cold front that continues to push east with strengthening low pressure tracking into the Canadian maritimes during the day.
Most terminals are now VFR with -RA. Brief instances of MVFR and isolated IFR remain possible through the morning as rain continues to push through. KSWF is expected to mix with -SN before precipitation comes to an end with little to no accumulation.
Conditions continue to improve late morning with all terminals VFR by early afternoon.
N/NW wind 10-20G20-30kt this morning with some gusts upwards of 35 kt possible, especially along the coast. A lull in gusts this morning is expected with gusts expected to pick back up 12-15Z.
Winds expected to remain strong with gusts upwards of 35kt lingering into the afternoon. Winds and gusts will gradually subside this evening into the overnight as they shift more W.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional this morning before picking up again by 15Z. MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible with -RA likely for AM push. VFR with winds and gusts gradually subsiding for the evening push.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR. W to NW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
The strongest winds have moved east of the region, so have dropped the storm warnings and converted them to gales. Expect gales on all waters through much, with small craft conditions likely into at least the first of Monday night.
Sub small craft conditions may prevail for a good portion of Tuesday across the waters in all likelihood, with small craft conditions returning through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile W flow gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed morning after a cold frontal passage. Gusts could peak at 30 kt on the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25 kt gusts are possible, especially on the eastern ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime Thursday.
HYDROLOGY
3 to 4", locally 5" have fallen across central LI and S Central CT.
Urban and poor drainage flooding impacts have generally been minor overnight.
Across S CT, several quick responding rivers are rising, with the Quinnipiac at Wallingford approaching minor flood stage. Meanwhile several points along large stem rivers like the Housatonic and Connecticut River are forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next 24 hours, with the Yantic River at Yantic forecast to reach Moderate flood stage.
An additional 1" or so likely for SE CT and twin forks through 12z, with a limited urban and poor drainage flood threat.
Across NYC, NE NJ, and Lower Hud, between 1 and 2" of rain have fallen, with less than 1/2" of additional rain expected. The threat for flooding has come to an end. Several flashy small stream rivers continue to slowly rise, but are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this morning high tide cycle for the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI. Winds shift to the W-NW this morning will limit magnitude of surge and additive wave impacts during the times of high tide Mon AM.
There is typically erratic surge behavior (double peak) with strong S/SE flow events followed by a strong windshift. For that reason, forecast has been heavily leaned to Stevens NYHOPS 95th percentile numbers, and adjusted upward for wave runup on south facing coastlines. This should capture the potential for localized minor flooding along the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI this morning.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ006>008- 010>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 644 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will continue to push east of the region today as a deepening low pressure along moves into Canada by this evening. High pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the New England coast Saturday night.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast is on track with just minor adjustments.
A strong cold front has pushed east of the forecast area this morning. Rainfall rates behind the front remain rather low, around a tenth of an inch per hour.
As a result, the flood threat for much of the CWA has come to an end and most of the flood watch has been cancelled. The only exception is across portions of CT where the flood watch remains in effect for the potential for river flooding. River rises in CT can be expected, especially on the Yantic, where a flood warning is in effect.
The high wind warning and wind advisory headlines have been cancelled with the strongest winds moving east of the CWA.
Temperatures are falling behind the front. OKX observed a 7 degree drop in temperatures in about 10 minutes as the front moved through.
Across NW zones, particularly Orange County, where temperatures have already fallen into the middle and upper 30s, look for the precip to end as a brief period of snow. With surface temps likely still being above freezing any snow will have difficulty sticking, with perhaps a coating or so on the grassy surfaces.
The precipitation will gradually taper off this morning, with any lingering showers moving away to the northeast.
Skies are expected to start clearing from SW to NE form late morning through the afternoon. The pressure gradient will remain rather tight today, as the departing low continues to deepen and high pressure starts to arrive. Gusts of 35 to 40 mph appear to be a good bet for the mid to late morning as cold advection is maximized as the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the day and into the evening the pressure gradient begins to decrease somewhat. It will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler with 40s across the area into the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
High pressure builds from the southwest tonight. Winds will gradually decrease with gusts still around 20 to 25 mph at times during the evening. After midnight, expect clear skies any gusts ending. This will allow temperatures to fall to seasonably cold levels. Temperatures should get below freezing in most places with lows in the middle and upper 20s in the more rural area, to mainly lower 30s across the city and urban locations.
s
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
No changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri, will then maintain strong sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening cold frontal passage Friday night. Guidance has been trending towards hanging on to high pressure over the area through the weekend. As high pressure shifts east is where model spread starts to really increase. There is potential for another low pressure system to impact the area late Sunday, but large differences remain in timing, strength and location.
Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only slight chance to chance PoP for next Sunday. Near normal temps Tue- Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via ridging sfc and aloft.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The terminals remain in the wake of a cold front that continues to push east with strengthening low pressure tracking into the Canadian maritimes during the day.
Most terminals are now VFR with -RA. Brief instances of MVFR and isolated IFR remain possible through the morning as rain continues to push through. KSWF is expected to mix with -SN before precipitation comes to an end with little to no accumulation.
Conditions continue to improve late morning with all terminals VFR by early afternoon.
N/NW wind 10-20G20-30kt this morning with some gusts upwards of 35 kt possible, especially along the coast. A lull in gusts this morning is expected with gusts expected to pick back up 12-15Z.
Winds expected to remain strong with gusts upwards of 35kt lingering into the afternoon. Winds and gusts will gradually subside this evening into the overnight as they shift more W.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional this morning before picking up again by 15Z. MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible with -RA likely for AM push. VFR with winds and gusts gradually subsiding for the evening push.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR. W to NW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
The strongest winds have moved east of the region, so have dropped the storm warnings and converted them to gales. Expect gales on all waters through much, with small craft conditions likely into at least the first of Monday night.
Sub small craft conditions may prevail for a good portion of Tuesday across the waters in all likelihood, with small craft conditions returning through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile W flow gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed morning after a cold frontal passage. Gusts could peak at 30 kt on the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25 kt gusts are possible, especially on the eastern ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime Thursday.
HYDROLOGY
3 to 4", locally 5" have fallen across central LI and S Central CT.
Urban and poor drainage flooding impacts have generally been minor overnight.
Across S CT, several quick responding rivers are rising, with the Quinnipiac at Wallingford approaching minor flood stage. Meanwhile several points along large stem rivers like the Housatonic and Connecticut River are forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next 24 hours, with the Yantic River at Yantic forecast to reach Moderate flood stage.
An additional 1" or so likely for SE CT and twin forks through 12z, with a limited urban and poor drainage flood threat.
Across NYC, NE NJ, and Lower Hud, between 1 and 2" of rain have fallen, with less than 1/2" of additional rain expected. The threat for flooding has come to an end. Several flashy small stream rivers continue to slowly rise, but are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this morning high tide cycle for the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI. Winds shift to the W-NW this morning will limit magnitude of surge and additive wave impacts during the times of high tide Mon AM.
There is typically erratic surge behavior (double peak) with strong S/SE flow events followed by a strong windshift. For that reason, forecast has been heavily leaned to Stevens NYHOPS 95th percentile numbers, and adjusted upward for wave runup on south facing coastlines. This should capture the potential for localized minor flooding along the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI this morning.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ006>008- 010>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 29 mi | 46 min | 52°F | 9 ft | 29.61 | |||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 58 mi | 36 min | 25G | 51°F | 29.65 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from HWV
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point o, Woods, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:18 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST 0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 02:07 PM EST -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:08 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 07:20 PM EST 0.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:18 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST 0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 02:07 PM EST -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:08 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 07:20 PM EST 0.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0 |
| 2 am |
| 0 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| -0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Upton, NY,
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