Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 6:30 PM   Moonset 4:09 AM

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ANZ370 Expires:202405160100;;279192 Fzus71 Kokx 152355 Mwsokx
marine weather statement national weather service new york ny 755 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
anz340-350-370-160100- 755 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters - .
the areas affected include - .
moriches inlet to Montauk point ny out 40 nm - . Peconic and gardiners bays - .
at 755 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located 7 nm southwest of buoy 44017, moving north at 20 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4106 7209 4104 7207 4059 7200 4052 7229 4088 7239 4098 7212 4102 7215 4098 7218 4102 7223 4098 7225 4099 7231 4096 7241 4101 7242 4107 7209

ANZ300 419 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will be in control through Wednesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. The cold front moves across Thursday night and stalls south of the region as waves of low pressure track along the stationary front. Another cold front moves across the region Saturday.

FXUS61 KOKX 210846 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 446 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. The cold front moves across Thursday night and stalls south of the region as waves of low pressure track along the stationary front. Another cold front moves across the region Saturday. Another frontal system affects the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure slowly pushes off the East Coast today, but remains over the area enough to keep the area dry. An upper level ridge pushes east, but flattens as a an upper level shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves east, passing well north of the area.

Any stratus and fog will burn off early this morning, allowing for a mostly sunny day. With full sun, today will be a warm day, especially for the interior, where a southwesterly flow advects a warm and increasingly more humid air mass today. Continued the trend of blending the 50th percentile with the deterministic NBM, which gives high temperatures in the middle 80s for northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, temperatures in the 70s to near 80 can be expected, with the immediate shore seeing upper 60s for highs thanks to onshore flow and relatively cooler ocean temperatures. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to middle 60s. Lows tonight will only drop to the 60s across New York City, northeast New Jersey, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, lows in the 50s can be expected.

There may be another round of stratus and fog, moving in from the east. However, confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast, but some guidance is pointing to this scenario once again.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The high slowly moves east on Wednesday allowing a pre-frontal trough to approach during the day. However, much, if not all the area, will remain dry. There is just a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms for the extreme western portion of Orange County on Wednesday.

Continued well above normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s away from the coast (approaching 90 for northeast New Jersey). The coast will see temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 80s for highs on Wednesday, and a couple of degrees warmer on Thursday.

High pressure will eventually give way to an approaching cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. The parent low attached to this front will be weakening as it moves farther north of the Great Lakes leading to a weakening of the cold front.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after the cold frontal passage.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe with the cold front with forecast surface CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 30 to 35 kt. Right now, coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered of, mainly for points north and west of New York City. No hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall accumulations.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms,



LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
There is currently a lot of uncertainty through the extended period with timing of a cold frontal passage Thursday night, and where this front will eventually stall. Waves of low pressure are expected to track along the stationary front which may bring a chance pf precipitation, showers, and potentially thunderstorms, to the area.
Near upper level zonal flow will bring a more amplified trough north of the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada Saturday into Saturday night, with another cold front approaching the region before weakening. Then for early next week an even more amplified trough will pass through the Great Lakes and northeast bringing a surface low across the region. While there are chances for precipitation during most of the extended period there will also be periods of dry weather.
With the uncertainties have followed the NBM probabilities.
Otherwise, a warm airmass will remain across the region with temperatures above normal Thursday night into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through Wednesday, then begins to move into the western Atlantic late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

IFR to LIFR stratus and fog remain across most of the area, except for the New Jersey terminals and will slowly improve from west to east this morning. Timing of improvement to VFR is uncertain, and will likely take longer at KISP and KGON. There is a low chance that KGON remains MVFR through the afternoon.

What remains uncertain is:

1- How far inland does the stratus get? KEWR and KTEB may be briefly impacted, but not KSWF.

2- How low do vsbys fall? Areas of fog were reducing visibilities to under 1 sm, mainly east of the New York City terminals.

3- Timing of improving conditions to VFR Tuesday morning. Expect a return to VFR between 14-18Z Tuesday. VFR then remains into later Tuesday night when stratus likely develops once again.

A light S flow prevails through the forecast period, however winds will be light and variable at a few locations overnight. Winds speeds increase to around 10kt on Tuesday. Sea breeze enhancements are expected once again Tuesday afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertain that the stratus will develop at KEWR and KTEB. Timing of improving conditions at KLGA may be earlier than forecast, and take a little longer at KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. becoming IFR east of the NYC terminals, and possibly at the NYC terminals. Becoming VFR during Wednesday morning. IFR is possible again late Wednesday night, mainly east of the NYC terminals.

Thursday: Improving to VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Generally VFR. A chance of showers with MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Dense fog over the bays and the eastern sound and eastern ocean zones continue this morning, with improvement still expected after 11 am. There may be another round of fog tonight, but not enough confidence to mention fog on the waters at this time.

Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions are expected across all waters through Thursday. However, this afternoon and Wednesday afternoons are likely to see a coastal jet produce gusts up to 20-25 kt, especially on Wednesday, and seas of 3 to 4 ft in the NY Bight along with seas possibly touching 5 ft.

Winds and seas will be below SCA levels across the forecast waters Thursday night through Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ332-340- 350.

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Point o' Woods
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Tue -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:36 AM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
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Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
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