Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Boro, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 29, 2021 11:04 AM EDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 10:47AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1035 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late this morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then scattered showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the area today before crossing the region late tonight. A second, weaker front will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in for Saturday before another area of low pressure possibly affects the region Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Boro, PA
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location: 40, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 291422 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1022 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. The risk of severe thunderstorms has increased over the past 24 hours; wind damage, hail, and isolated tornado threats are focused over south central Pennsylvania this afternoon/evening. A northwest breeze will bring dry and more comfortable air into the area on Friday, setting the stage for a refreshing cooldown to close out July 2021.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Ramping up for a busy afternoon. Warm front lifting across N Central PA ushering in 1.5 to 1.85 PW from west to east from eastern OH as nose of 850 mb jet tracks eastward. Cells firing and being maintained as this occurs with brief heavy rainfall.

The conditional risk of severe storms ramps up this afternoon and evening (2-8PM most likely timing) with SPC upgrading the south- central and southeast zones to an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5). The upper pattern will be characterized by a broad trough/cyclonic flow aloft with embedded MCV translating east- southeastward from the southern Great Lakes through the northern Mid Atlantic region.

29/00Z HREF mean shows 40-50kt deep-layer shear profiles in place later this afternoon with 0-3km SRH values 200-400+ m2s2. The main uncertainty driving the conditional nature of this potentially significant severe wx event continues to center around the degree of destablization, as cloud cover from upstream convective complex may limit heating/instability to some extent. The latest HRRR and other CAMs show pcpn from this feature reaching into the western zones between 15-17Z.

Assuming sufficient CAPE can be realized in the warm sector, the environment will be supportive of some supercells that may evolve into bowing structures as storms track northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. While the primary threat appears to be damaging winds and possibly some hail, low level hodographs are supportive of an isolated tornado risk especially in the vicinity of sfc warm front over south- central PA. This risk is highlighted by a 5% tornado probability.

MaxT will be a few to several degrees lower vs. yesterday in the low 70s north to lower 80s south. The relatively cooler temps combined with advection of rich low level moisture (near-70F dewpoint air) suggests lower LCL heights which are an important delineator for tornadoes in central PA. Despite PW values around 1-1.5 inches supporting brief heavy downpours/rain rates, recent dryness in the past 7 days along with fairly progressive storm motions should confine flooding risk to marginal (level 1 out of 4) with the highest probs/lowest FFG in the NC/NE mtns.

The severe threat should end by 8PM give or take, but showers could linger in spots for most of the night. MinT will trend a few degrees warmer overall with the largest positive 24hr deltas over the middle and upper Susquehanna Valley. Post-frontal NW flow should align low clouds upslope along the western Alleghenies into early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Improving conditions are expected in the wake of the cold FROPA Friday with much drier air poised to arrive via refreshing NW breeze. Look for a mix of sun and clouds and low humidity. The latest model data suggests a passing shower is possible mainly across the NE zones under the cool pocket aloft, but this may be more diurnal cu vs. pcpn that actually reaches the ground given dewpoints dropping into the 40s.

The dry/low PW airmass will set the stage for a rather cool Friday night/AM Saturday with minTs ranging from the mid 40s over the NW Alleghenies to the mid 50s across the southeast valleys (good sleeping weather!). We were keen to shade Td lower during the day Friday and weight minTs Friday night toward the low end of the NBM range. MaxT Friday will be about 5-10F below daily climo. Look forward to a beautiful start to the weekend and last day of July 2021. The next cold front is fcst to settle down across the lower Great Lakes by Sunday morning with NBM PPIs signaling low precip probs across the NW mtns by 12Z Sun.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Evening update: No significant changes made in this update.

Shortwave trough pushing south across Ontario on Saturday will lead to backing flow aloft as modest return flow sets up for late Saturday and Sunday, spelling the return of shower chances across the Alleghenies late Saturday. A better shot for showers/storms will exist for all of central PA on Sunday as a surface low moves across Lake Ontario.

Much of Monday should remain dry, outside of a few lingering early day showers across the northern tier. Another upper low looks to dig into the western Great Lakes/Midwest into Tuesday, which will once again lead to increasing moisture and subsequent shower/storm chances into midweek. Below normal temperatures look to remain the rule, with highs generally in the low 70s north to low 80s south and lows spanning the 50s with low 60s in the lower Susquehanna Valley.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Mainly VFR conditions will continue into this morning, except for a period of MVFR cigs LNS, MDT, and perhaps IPT in moist SE flow ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes. That low will bring showers and storms late in the morning and afternoon for most terminals with widespread reductions in cigs and visbys. There is the potential for a few TSRA with gusty winds in the afternoon as well, especially for southern terminals.

A cold front will cross through northern terminals AOB 00z Fri and continue through southern terminals by 06z Fri. This will bring an end to TSRA activity but MVFR or IFR cigs will likely persist at BFD and JST into Fri morning in moist upslope NW flow.

Outlook .

Fri & Sat . No sig wx expected.

Sun . Chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Mon . Mostly VFR

CLIMATE. It's been a wet July in some parts of central PA. Through July 28th, the monthly precipitation at Harrisburg is 7.99 inches which currently ranks 2021 as the 9th wettest July on record.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM . DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM . Steinbugl LONG TERM . Guseman/Ross/DeVoir AVIATION . Colbert/Travis CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 49 mi46 min SSE 5.1 G 7 77°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 51 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 80°F 84°F1014.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 54 mi46 min SSW 6 G 7 80°F 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA13 mi71 minS 610.00 miOvercast75°F68°F79%1015.1 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA21 mi68 minSSE 46.00 miOvercast with Haze77°F68°F74%1014.4 hPa
York, York Airport, PA21 mi71 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F69°F77%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3NW3NE7NW4N6N9NE6NE5NE3NE3NE4E4E5E4E3E3E4CalmCalmS8S8S8S6S8
1 day agoNW5NW8W7W8NW7W6NW9NW6N3CalmCalmW3E5CalmCalmE3NE3NW4W4CalmCalm36N6
2 days agoN7N64NW10NW10NW4N5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:57 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.422.62.92.92.72.321.71.41.31.31.62.12.6332.72.41.91.51.20.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:35 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.522.22.221.61.30.90.60.50.711.51.92.12.221.71.30.90.50.40.40.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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