Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Boro, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:19 PM EDT (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:22AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1040 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1040 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over new england will shift offshore today. A developing warm front will lift from the central appalachian mountains into pennsylvania by Friday. A weakening cold front will drop in from the lower great lakes Friday night, then stall and dissipate over the middle atlantic this weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Boro, PA
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location: 40, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 161526 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1126 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. The summertime pattern will turn increasingly more humid through Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could reach severe limits across the Northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will trend hotter over the weekend with the potential for excessive heat conditions into early next week across parts of south central and southeastern PA.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/. Minor changes to near term fcst with the mid-late morning update. Severe storm risk (5% tornado prob) appears confined to the western periphery of the CWA with low clouds maintaining stability east of the Alleghenies. WPC recently highlighted NW PA with a MPD for locally heavy rain and isolated short-term flooding risk ramping up in the 18-21Z timeframe.

Visible sat loop shows plenty of cloud breaks from eastern OH into western PA. Moisture advection/convergent inflow at 850mb out of the southwest and continued surface heating should support moderate buoyancy ahead of weak cold front moving into western OH. HREF fcst MLCAPE and deep shear profiles will be supportive of supercells and accompanying threat of dmg winds and isolated large hail. High dewpoints near 70F (lower LCLs) and mean SRH 200-300 m2/s2 near the edge of the unstable warm sector airmass (PBZ/CTP CWA boundary) continues to suggest a few tornadoes may be possible.

Previous discussion . LLVL pressure gradient tightens ahead of slowly weakening low pressure that will be moving ENE from the Ohio Valley to the Lake Erie this afternoon and early this evening.

Minor concern regarding the amount and intensity of TSRA this afternoon surrounds the degree of cirrus from Wednesday's upstream convection.

Several hours of sunshine and typical diurnal mixing will likely erode at least some of cirrus/cirrostratus layer leaving plenty of heating to boost sfc based cape to between 1500-2000 j/kg. In addition, RAP shows impressive llvl shear and a broad loop hodograph at NW PA grid points. This will be highly supportive of discrete supercells for up to several hours after the onset as 0-1KM EHIs increase to between 3-4 m2/s2 between 18-23Z near and to the west of the RT 219 corridor from KBFD to KJST.

This area of the CWA remains in SPC's Day 1 SLGT Risk for SVR, with an elevated . 5% chc of tornado occurrence within 25 miles of a given point.

Convection will be in the form of isolated to sctd late afternoon/evening showers and TSRA across the eastern third of the state with peak intensity of the strongest storms below severe levels.

There is also the potential for isolated instances of flooding this afternoon/evening across the northwest mountains, as plume of anomalous PWs combine with instability and lift near front to support torrential downpours. Last few runs of the HREFV2 indicates a decent chance of spot 3-6 hour amounts of 3+ inches across the northwest counties.

SSE sfc winds will likely gust into the 20-25 mph range at times during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Temps are quite mild and starting out in the upper 60s to low 70s at daybreak and will warm into the mid 70s acrs the northern mtns to between 80 and 85 in the Central and Southern valleys.

SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible early this evening across western PA.

Lows trend warmer/muggy Thursday night with a corridor of showers likely persisting across the northern part of the forecast area as the weak frontal boundary trailing south from the weakening low moving ENE across Lake Erie and the Niagara frontier, drifts east across the NW Mtns well after midnight.

Weak frontal boundary sagging slowly SE across the CWA will focus sctd-numerous mainly afternoon and early evening showers/TSRA across the SE half of PA Friday afternoon. Loss of significant llvl and deep-layer shear will mean weaker/mainly pulse or small multi-cell clusters of TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Highs Friday afternoon will be 3-5F warmer than today (Thu).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Medium range guidance supports hot and humid conditions in the through the first half of next week, as Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of an expansive subtropical ridge centered over the southern conus. Passage of a weak cold front will bring the chance of scattered tstorms Friday, primarily over the southeast counties. The parent shortwave and more significant mid level flow will pass well north of Pa, so the threat of severe wx appears low. There is growing model consensus in a period of diminished convection next weekend, as drier air briefly works into Pa behind the dying cold front.

Upper ridge is progged to flatten by early next week, allowing a dying cold front to push southeast from the Grt Lks and resulting in a daily chance of convection Mon-Wed.

Latest ECENS and NAEFS indicate the heat is likely to peak either Sunday or Monday, with more widespread convection ahead of an approaching cold front holding temperatures down by Tue-Wed. Ensemble mean 850 temps near 21C support high temperatures well into the 90s across the Susq Valley by Sunday. This heat, combined with high humidity, is likely to result in heat advisory criteria across the southeast part of the forecast area Sunday into early next week. WPC Max Heat Index and Probability page brings 40-70 percent probs of Heat index>100°F Sun-Tue across this part of the state.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. MVFR cigs over almost all terminals at 11Z, but BFD, AOO, JST have all been missing obs for 2 hours. There are now some tiny pinpoint showers running SW-NE through the NW half of the CWA. Early start to the showers shows some good instability aloft. However, there should be a small break in the forcing until later this morning when the main short-wave trough nears.

The advancing frontal system looks to hang up just to our west late today/tonight. This will make the TSRA threat more over the west, but a few stray SHRA are still possible over the eastern terminals starting this evening. Clouds will lift today, but perhaps not quickly this morning. They will crash back to low- MVFR again tonight. The serious storms over the west will develop in the late morning and early aftn. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be dangers to watch for later today in the west. Gusty gradient winds over the east will be present through the entire fcst period. Some stabilization tonight should decrease the SHRA/TSRA over the NW starting close to midnight, but the SE will not get rid of the chance of SHRA all night.

Outlook .

Fri . AM low clouds/restrictions possible. PM T-storms mainly southeast 1/2.

Sat . Patchy AM fog possible, otherwise VFR.

Sun . Mainly VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA west late aftn-night.

Mon . Mainly VFR. Numerous SHRA/TSRA N&W, otherwise VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Steinbugl SHORT TERM . Lambert/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM . Fitzgerald AVIATION . Dangelo/RXR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 49 mi80 min 83°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 51 mi80 min 82°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA13 mi27 minSE 910.00 miOvercast76°F66°F74%1024.5 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA21 mi24 minSSE 109.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F68°F63%1023.2 hPa
York, York Airport, PA21 mi27 minSSE 7 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F66°F62%1023.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmS33E5SE6SE4SE11SE11SE8SE9SE8SE5E6E6E4E4E7SE8SE9SE6SE10SE9SE9
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N8NW7N74N7NW6NW4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmE7E6E5E5
2 days agoNW9NW9NW7NW7NW6W10NW6N5N3NW3NW4W4W4NW5W5SW3W4W4W5W4NW7NW6NW6NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM EDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.70.91.31.92.63.23.43.43.22.92.62.21.91.61.51.41.722.121.81.5

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:43 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.711.522.32.42.32.11.81.41.10.80.60.60.81.11.41.71.81.61.41.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.