Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:57 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 440 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of this afternoon - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming e. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 440 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure building across the area through Monday will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front crosses the waters Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another front crosses later in the workweek. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 282133 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 533 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Showers and a few thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the north.

-Well above average temperatures persist this week with highs in the 70s and 80s; near-record highs possible Monday.

-Cold fronts Tuesday and Friday-Saturday bring showers and storms. Potential for a few heavy downpours.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
The satellite picture is rather interesting this afternoon with cloud-free skies across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
Temperatures there have failed to warm up as much as expected this afternoon thanks to a stubborn deck of stratocumulus that finally mixed out around noon. The cooler temperatures have resulted in less mixing and a notable lack of fair weather cumulus clouds. Farther west, gusty west-southwest winds and partly cloudy skies are accompanied by temperatures in the low 80s and comfortable dewpoints in the low to mid 50s.

A few showers are ongoing across the northern tier associated with the northern extend of a ridge draped over the eastern US.
There is an isolated chance of thunder this evening with about 500-1000 J/kg surface based CAPE, but little to no lightning has been observed thus far. Showers will gradually shift east and south this evening and should fall apart with the loss of daytime heating. At this point, it seems that the showers could make it as far south as the I-80 corridor, but activity farther south is less likely at this time. Rainfall amounts will be generally less than a tenth of an inch.

A very mild night is in store for tonight thanks to the higher dewpoints that will be in place. Mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling such that temperatures fall to near or just above the dewpoint temperatures. In locations that (have) receive(d) rainfall this (afternoon) evening, patchy fog is possible. Based on the current forecast, locations north of I-80 are most likely to have fog. Lows on Monday morning will be in the 55 to 60F range, which is +10 to +15 compared to average.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Monday will be the warmest day of the week as the ridge of high pressure reaches its maximum northward extent Monday afternoon.
Surface high pressure to the south of PA will result in ample sunshine and west-southwest flow characteristic of a true summer day. Recent model guidance continues to suggest MaxTs in the 80s nearly everywhere and an outside chance at 90 near the Mason- Dixon line. Have blended in some of the NBM 90th percentile to capture the potential for temperatures to exceed expectations given deep mixing and plenty of warm air advection continuing. Some afternoon convection across mainly northern PA does appear plausible given embedded shortwaves within the ridge axis. If convection manages to occur, MaxTs across northern PA could be limited to the upper 70s but will still be well above seasonable averages.

Monday night will be similar to Sunday night with temperatures falling near the dewpoint temperature (upper 50s to low 60s).
Some increasing high clouds will begin streaming in overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. There is some signal for a few showers or storms moving across the central mountains Monday evening, but dry conditions should prevail for most.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An unsettled pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday as low pressure from the Central Plains moves northwest of the area, bringing a weak sfc cold front across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours. Anomalously warm temperatures for the end of April are expected with MaxTs in portions of SE PA making another run towards the 80-85F range with RHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon hours. Some potential cloud cover during the early afternoon hours brings some uncertainty into MaxTs on Tuesday but guidance suggests some clearing which will allow for enhanced surface warming.

Showers are expected at the onset Tuesday morning across NW PA with enough elevated instability later in the afternoon/evening for potential thunderstorms further to the south and east.
Deterministic guidance has continued to indicate a secondary area of sfc low pressure forming along the DelMarVa before quickly racing off to the northeast with good agreement and will retain chances of precipitation through Wednesday morning.
Showers become more scattered in nature Wednesday afternoon with dry conditions expected by the evening hours as an upper-level ridge takes hold over the region.

Model solutions have started to latch onto a stronger upper- level ridge solution, providing fair weather on Thursday and into the first half Friday. It is of note that a slightly weaker shortwave could allow for some shower activity, but given successive runs of guidance brining about a stronger shortwave, have opted to cut PoPs out from this timeframe.

A low-pressure stationed over the Great Lakes will bring about the next sfc cold front across central PA later on Friday and throughout the day on Saturday. There is fairly good agreement with deterministic model guidance in regards to precipitation associated with the frontal passage, although timing remains the biggest uncertainty at this time. This cold frontal passage will also bring about a return to seasonable temperatures for the beginning of May.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions over the area as of mid afternoon. Some showers just forming across the north as I type this. A shower could push southeast to IPT, but I took thunder out of IPT earlier when I sent the 18Z package.

Any showers and isolated storms should quickly weaken this evening.

Potential for widespread fog and low CIGS much lower tonight than last night.

Monday should feature some CU development and mainly dry conditions. Highest chance of showers across the north and west.

More in the way of showers and storms possible later Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the area.

Outlook...

Tue...Showers and storms, mainly late. Impacts possible.

Wed...Early AM low cigs possible N Mtns.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...A chance of showers and storms.

CLIMATE
Monday will be the warmest day of the week and high temperatures could approach record levels. Here are the current record high temperatures for April 29th at several climate sites in Central PA:

SITE RECORD YEAR Altoona 83F 1974 Bradford 76F 1984 Harrisburg 90F 1974 Johnstown 88F 1974 State College 89F 1942 Williamsport 86F 1974

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:14 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:23 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:22 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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