Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Neffs, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:56PM Saturday July 4, 2020 7:35 PM EDT (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:49PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neffs, OH
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 042324 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 724 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Hot weather continues to roll on. Little change in the forecast through next week. Peak heat index values during the afternoon will be in the mid 90s, outside the mountains. Overnight lows do not offer much relief. Isolated storms are possible in the mountains, but most won't see a drop of rain the next seven days.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Update focused on expanding area of low PoPs and adding thunder mention to southeast Ohio. Higher dewpoints and a weak boundary in the vicinity are allowing the weak cap aloft to break locally, with cells getting tall enough to generate lightning in some cases. However, it appears that the mid and dry levels contain too much dry air to allow storms to get very tall. This will limit any cell's ability to get a stronger core high up, and thus should greatly limit any threat of downbursts, despite surface delta theta-e values in excess of 20. Further east along the Mason-Dixon Line and towards the ridges,a few isolated showers will remain possible into the evening. However, a bit more warm air aloft will likely keep most cells from generating lightning, and will keep thunder mention out for now. Foresee most activity collapsing around sunset.

Previous discussion .

Forecast pattern remains stagnant under control of a strong mid level anti-cyclone. The main forecast challenge remains how much coverage should be included for afternoon / evening storm coverage? Storms have fired in central Ohio east into the New Philadelphia area. Residual outflow could spawn storms downstream over parts of our eastern Ohio zones, so will expand isolated mention there.

With a weaker cap noted in BUFR soundings between H7-H6 expect coverage to be greater through the evening than Sunday afternoon since the cap re-strengthens. Scattered pops in the higher terrain of Tucker and Garrett look good through this evening. Outflow from these storms as they roll off the windward side of the mountains and could fire up storms in adjacent lowlands as NAM 3KM illustrates, while HRRR does not point to this. Given this is a weakly forced event, but with modest cold pools given DCAPE forecasts would not rule out NAM 3KM solution. Future shifts can adjust based on convective trends.

Temperatures will again be muggy overnight, especially in urban areas where lower 70s are again forecast. Otherwise, mid and upper 60s are expected. Patchy valley again will be a minor impact as it will burn off quickly even in the deeper gorges of West Virginia.

NBM continues a several degree high bias on maxT, so will roll with bias corrected raw guidance given recent mean absolute error verification of past days.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Any afternoon showers or storms will fizzle out around sunset owing to another warm evening.

Monday will feature isolated storms developing during the peak heating hours. 12Z NCEP suite illustrates a weak perturbation in the mid level flow crossing between 18-21Z. This should be enough to get storms going, the biggest question at this point is where? Yet another ripple in the flow could pass Monday night, but for now continued with a persistence forecast of diurnal pops mainly in the mountains and nearby lower elevations.

Thermodynamic instability will be present once we get into the upper 80s and reach the trigger temperature Monday. Despite MUCAPE around 1.5 kjkg^-1, weak wind in the column will promote slow movers and storms should rain themselves out before they get to strong.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights . * No end for the heat wave * Warmest stretch since June-July 2012 * Peak heat index values in the mid 90s

H5 ridge continues to be the dominate player in the weather forecast next week. There are more weather players than past days that have made the forecast confidence a little less.

First the heat . H5 heights from several operational and respective ensembles hover around 588dm while H8 temps vary between 18C-21C. GFS remains cooler than the ECMWF and CMC which is why it continues to output values in the upper 80s all next week. The other two build a strong ridge over the Great Lakes by mid week and push H8 temps up to 21C. Consequently, guidance is spitting out lower to mid 90s outside of the mountains. As boundary layer moisture slowly increases through the week as afternoon dewpoints are in the mid and upper 60s, heat index values between 92-98F will be a daily occurrence. Still have enough confidence that we won't meet heat advisory criteria of 100-104F. The forecast has been lock step the past few days with these temperatures that gives higher confidence.

The biggest challenge continues to be what happens with the weak low that is forecast to track across the gulf coast states Thursday onward or up into the central Appalachians. GFS has pops above climo Tuesday - Friday as it predicts more of a northwest flow tracking pockets of energy overhead which triggers afternoon / evening storms. ECMWF does not and keeps us dry for the most of the extended. Either way, Wednesday appears the best chance /albeit just scattered/ to see measurable rainfall. Can not rule out storms especially with the elevated heat source in the mountains as PWATS climb near 1.7".

To put the dry spell in context, for most locations the last measurable rainfall occurred June 28th, so if it doesn't rain through day 7 /July 11th/. It will be just shy of the 14 day stretch that ended on September 28th 2017. We still have a LONG way to go before we get close to the record dry stretch of 26 set way back in 1874.

With warm overnight expected next week and values around 70F. We are forecasting record hi/mins at some of our shorter period of record sites of New Philadelphia and Wheeling. Overall the NBM continues to run 1-3F too hot given recent guidance performance, so will knock it down a few as the trend of late.

NHC is tracking an area of low pressure off the Carolina coast, at this point, it does not appear to affect our weather next week.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure and capping warmth aloft should maintain dry, mainly VFR weather through the TAF period with light wind and diurnal CU. The exceptions are expected to be FKL and ZZV. Valley fog is possible late tonight at FKL, and IFR fog should develop at ZZV tonight as they saw rain late this aftn, and dew points there remain high. The cap could erode late Sun aftn at LBE and MGW, though expect most of any aftn tstms to stay SE of those ports. Outlook. General VFR is expected, though local restrictions are possible in erly mrng vly fg, and isold-sct aftn tstms.

CLIMATE. With a string of 90 degree days expected to persist through most of next week. Using the 1981-2010 period which matches our climate normals, here are the average number of days at or above 90 degrees.

DuBois: 1.5 Morgantown: 12 Pittsburgh: 9.5 Wheeling: 3.1 Zanesville: 12.1

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. OH . None. PA . None. WV . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wheeling, Wheeling Ohio County Airport, WV15 mi42 minNW 610.00 miFair87°F59°F39%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHLG

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Last 24hrSW5W5W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N6NE4W6N8NW9N8NW7N5NW6
1 day agoNW6N5N5N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33W74NW645W6W5
2 days agoNE6N6NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8CalmNW33NE5NW4N6NW84N8N6NW7NW7NW4

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Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.