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FXUS63 KILX 110152 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 752 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 752 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Back edge of the stratocu deck has made nice eastward progress this evening, stretched from near Lacon to Lawrenceville just before 8 pm. Where skies have cleared temperatures have plummeted, as low as 22F at Galesburg, while cloudy areas near the IN border are still in the lower 30s. 00z surface map indicated a ridge axis stretched from the TX Gulf coast up the Mississippi River Valley, and will provide light to calm winds overnight. Some upstream cirrus is evident on IR satellite imagery over IA, but this looks fairly thin and will likely not inhibit radiational cooling much. So based on trends have undercut guidance by a few degrees, and lowered mins to the low/mid 20s.

25

DISCUSSION
Issued at 125 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Key Message:

* Dry weather to prevail this week with temperatures moderating to above normal levels.

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery shows that the clearing line has managed to make it to about a Burlington-Carlinville line, though a few thinner spots in the overcast were occurring just north of the forecast area as well. 850 mb humidity plots off the RAP suggest it may take until early to mid evening to make it all the way over to the Indiana border. The arrival of some mid/high clouds around that time would result in mainly partly cloudy skies overnight across the forecast area.

Not a lot has changed in the forecast thinking for temperatures this week. The overall upper level pattern will preclude any significant cold air intrusions, with highs mainly in the 40s, with lower 50s likely toward the weekend.

Precipitation also appears to be minimal during this period. The passage of a cold front Tuesday will only result in some increase in clouds behind it. Models have been backing off from this time 24 hours ago in the strength of the northern Plains wave Friday night and Saturday, with only the GFS trying to close anything off from it. With a large upper low still progged to over the southwest U.S. and taking a southern track near the Gulf coast this weekend, this should preclude any significant moisture advection into any northern system. Thus, the forecast will be dry through the upcoming weekend.

Geelhart

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Back edge of the MVFR stratocu deck has cleared KPIA-KSPI and is just west of KDEC at 23z. KDEC should clear out soon, then lower confidence on when KBMI-KCMI will clear as the back edge typically slows after sunset. Guidance holds onto the MVFR ceilings and KCMI until 12z, but based on current trends have sped this up a few hours. After that, periods of VFR level clouds will affect the area into Monday evening. A ridge axis shifts overhead tonight, bringing light/variable winds. After the ridge shifts east by late morning, south/southwest winds at 8-10 kt will prevail.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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