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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 138 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 138 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
broad high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.

FXUS61 KCTP 081913 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 213 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
A surge of warmth into the weekend will precede a strong frontal system that will bring heavy rain, snow and strong wind gusts to central PA. A noticeable change in temperatures is expected by Monday with the return of seasonably colder air and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie. After Monday, the pattern signal for the rest of next week favors seasonal temperatures and little to no precipitation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Central and eastern valley locations have finally mixed out the inversion with 1PM temps warming up into the mid 40s/50s or near fcst maxT (+8-15F above early December climo). GOES16 visible satellite loop shows a batch of mid and high clouds passing over the south central to southeastern part of the forecast area at midday with abundant sunshine elsewhere across CPA.

Mainly clear skies and a nearly calm wind tonight will set the stage (boundary layer decoupling) for fog/stratus development which could become locally dense in the central and eastern valleys. HRRR signal is quite bullish on this scenario. With fcst low temps dropping to around the freezing mark, will need to watch for icy spots especially bridges and overpasses.
Meanwhile, an active southerly wind over the western mtns will help min temps stay around 40F or +15-20F above normal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Intervals of clouds and sun to start the second weekend of December 2023. The shallow/colder airmass and llvl inversion that will initially be entrenched to the east of the Alleghenies Saturday morning will be slow to mix out with light east- southeast flow helping to hold high temps in the 40s (still +5-10F above normal). The warmest temps with highs in the mid to upper 50s are expected over the western counties (+15-20F above normal).

Precip probs tick higher Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening over the western Alleghenies as strong cold front reaches the Upper Ohio Valley by 00Z Sun. There is good agreement in the front moving slowly across CPA on Sunday as the associated longwave mid/upper trough becomes negatively tilted.

There is increasing confidence in the potential for heavy rain ahead and along the cold front given strong upper jet and GOMEX moisture feed surging pwats to 1+ inches or +2SD above the mean. Despite the lack of instability, forcing and available moisture should be enough to generate some heavier rainfall rates of ~0.5"/hr and 1"+ per 3 hours, with good model agreement for event total rainfall of 1.00-2.50" across the area.

The heaviest rain (2+ inches) is expected over the eastern portion of the CWA where isolated minor (urban/poor drainage and river) flooding is most likely. We plan to issue a flood watch adjacent to BGM/PHI to highlight the flood risk heading into the weekend.

Colder air will pour into the area behind the front Sunday night behind increasingly gusty NW flow. This will result in a rain to snow transition from west to east across the Alleghenies between 00-12Z Monday. There is still some uncertainty in how this baroclinic zone translates to snowfall amounts as quick cooling catches up to backside of the precip axis. Marginal sfc to BL temps also adds to low confidence especially from the central ridges to the eastern/Susquehanna Valley. Elevation will be a factor with latest forecast showing at least few inches of snow accum across the highest terrain from the Laurel Highlands into the north central mtns and adjacent Endless mtns/western Poconos. Min temps in the 35-40F range will significantly reduce the probability of accumulating snow in the lower to middle Susq Valley.

Peak wind gusts Sunday night into Monday are forecast in the 35 to 45 mph range. As temperatures drop below freezing, there could be a freeze-up risk of water/slush with icy spots possible Monday morning.

Pattern eventually transitions full-send to seasonably cold NW flow with snow showers likely on Monday before fading into Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
After the deepening surface low lifts northeastward Monday night, high pressure centered over the southeastern US will bring tranquil weather to the Commonwealth for the rest of the week. Prevailing westerly winds will oscillate some through the week as a boundary stalls just north of the area. When the wind exhibits a more northerly component, a few light rain/snow showers could affect the far northern tier of PA. Outside of that very low chance of precipitation, the rest of the area should stay dry with plenty of sunshine.

The sunshine will be a bit deceiving, though. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the middle 30s in the north to middle 40s across the southeast and overnight lows generally be in the 20s. That being said, a breezy westerly wind each day will shave 5 to 10 degrees off of the temperature making it feel more like 10 to 20 degrees in the morning and 25 to 35 degrees in the afternoon.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of today as a southerly breeze develops, and becomes gusty at 10-15 knots across the Alleghenies.

Lowering ceilings approach from the west overnight, with MVFR criteria likely (60-70%) at KBFD after 06Z Sat. Between 06Z and 015Z Saturday, fog development in the Susquehanna Valley is expected. IFR/LIFR restrictions are very likely (>80%) at MDT and LNS with a lower chance (30-40%) at IPT.

Improving conditions are expected areawide on Saturday as fog mixes out and ceilings lift before lowering ceilings arrive ahead of the next weather system Saturday night.

Outlook...

Sat PM...Showers arrive NW late. Restrictions likely.

Sun...CFROPA. Widespread reductions in rain/snow. Windy.

Mon...Rain/snow showers poss N/W. Breezy west wind.

Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:53 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:48 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:29 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EST     1.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:25 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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