Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wayne Lakes, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:16PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:54 AM EST (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:48PMMoonset 10:07AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wayne Lakes, OH
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location: 40.03, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 140912 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 412 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over West Virginia this morning will move off to the east today bringing rain to an end. High pressure will build in tonight and Sunday and then quickly move off to the east. A storm system with a mix of precipitation will approach on Sunday night and then move through the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Rain continues across the region early this morning with the back edge making its way across central Indiana. Short wave forcing this activity is moving up the Ohio Valley. As it passes across the area the rain will come to an end. Some breaks in the clouds may develop during the afternoon in the wake of this system. Temperatures are starting off relatively mild, so even though readings will not rise too much, highs will still get into the lower to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Cold air advection, low level flow off Lake Michigan, and a weak northern stream short wave will thicken clouds across the area again overnight. Cannot rule some light precipitation with this disturbance across far northern counties with thermal profiles suggesting rain changing to snow out of anything that develops. Lows will be near normal.

High pressure will build in for Sunday which will help erode lower clouds. But mid to high clouds in advance of the next system will be overspreading the region, so any clearing will be brief. Looks like we may get about a 10 degree rise from morning lows.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Challenge in the forecast occurs fairly early on and resides in the various ptypes expected. Precip will quickly ramp up as a warm front enters from the west early Sunday evening, overspreading most of if not the entire CWA by midnight. Warming temperatures aloft will help the area of snow and freezing rain to lift northward slowly overnight. Daytime insolation on Monday will give most of the area plain rain, but a mix of snow may still occur through the day in west central Ohio. This mix will slowly spread eseward in the evening as the surface low ejects northward ahead of the upper level trough. Rain will then mix with and change over to snow for all but the southeast before ending by daybreak Tuesday in most locations.

Heavy rain is possible in the southeast CWA as upper level flow is fairly strong from the southwest, giving a continued feed of moisture that will get wrung out as it interacts with the surface low. If not heavy rain, a steady moderate rain is giving pause to WPC who has put the area in a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Monday. Amounts southeast of the I-71 corridor should top an inch and could reach near 2 inches in portions of northern Kentucky and far south central Ohio.

Icing with freezing rain is not out of the question for much of the forecast area north of the Ohio River, primarily Sunday night. While the models are in fair agreement, the complex thermal profiles in and around the warm front that this precipitation will be entering with and subsequently lift northward are still uncertain. Snow is also a little tricky but easier spelled out than the threat of freezing rain. Expect less than a half inch along and south of the Ohio River. One to two inches are expected in the northern half of the CWA, with a strong gradient from that half inch at the river to almost 2 inches near I-70.

Thermal profiles are still subject to a not insignificant change, and headline winter weather is not a prudent product at this time. Regardless, Sunday night into early Monday will see much of the area with a wintery mix in the north, and steady rain to the south.

Tuesday will see just a chance of lingering snow exiting early in the day. This will mark the change in the pattern with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast. Tuesday will see highs range from 30 in the northwest to 40 in the southeast, with overnight lows dipping from the mid teens to around 20 for daybreak Wednesday. The coldest air will occur Wednesday as the surface high in the Midwest and northwest upper flow behind the l/w trough combine to keep highs in the 20s north of the Ohio River and around or just below freezing south of the river.

Wednesday night will be a bit more uniform in temperatures around 20 degrees, with a warmup expected for the remainder of the week. Thursday will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, Friday within a few degrees of 40 and Saturday generally between 40-45, all of which will be coldest in the north and warmest in the south given a southerly flow through this time. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Rain will occur through the early part of the TAF period. While this will generally be light, there may be some lower visibility between the rain and some mist. Ceilings will fall to IFR where they are not that low already. Rain will move off to the east of the terminals between 14Z and 18Z which will also coincide with any visibility restrictions. IFR ceilings will improve to MVFR. There could be some breaks in the ceiling later in the day, but even if this occurs it will be temporary as MVFR ceilings are expected across the area overnight. North winds will increase a bit early on. They will then veer to northwest and eventually west at around 10 kt.

OUTLOOK . MVFR ceilings will continue into Sunday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely again late Sunday night into Monday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . Franks AVIATION .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Versailles Darke County Airport, OH14 mi80 minNW 54.00 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1004.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVES

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Last 24hrS5S6S3S3S5S4SE4SE5CalmCalmNE3E4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW6NW7NW4NW4
1 day agoS10S10S8S10S10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.