Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:58PM Monday August 19, 2019 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 8:59AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 436 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will deliver a light southerly flow over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 191959
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
359 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
It will remain very warm and humid through mid week and a weak
trough of low pressure will keep the chance of mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Cooler
and much less humid air will arrive for Thursday through
Saturday with dry conditions expected.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Satellite shows a bright day in progress with a quiet radar as
of 2pm. The near zonal flow from the upper plains into pa will
continue aloft while weak high dominates on the surface today
and tonight.

I further trimmed pops down to just the very small chance of a
stray shower or storm over the far eastern zones in what the
rap is showing as some marginally unstable air. With warm air
building in aloft, have to believe this will act as an effective
cap to most convection.

Heat indices are already approaching 100 over york and
lancaster, and will top out near or slightly above 100 over most
of the SE for a few hours this afternoon. Either way the
heat humidity will be noticeable over much of the region
reminding us summer is not over quite yet, despite the
shortening days.

Another muggy night is in store for most of the CWA with highs
near 60 north, to lower 70s over the se.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Approaching mid upper level short wave trough and increasing
south to swrly llvl flow along and to the south of a weak warm
frontal boundary will help ramp up convective parameters Tuesday
afternoon, with scattered afternoon showers and storms expected
in all parts of the state.

High temps Tuesday will be a tad lower lower than today given
the expected additional sky cover. Highs will range from the
lower 80s across the NW mountains and laurel highlands to
lower 90s over the se.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
A slightly higher probability for tsra Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a more vigorous upper shortwave and associated sfc
cfropa pushes southeast through the CWA late Wednesday and wed
night.

Upper low crossing eastern canada will anchor a trough that
traverses the great lakes northeast us by the end of the period.

The sensible wx forecast is tied to the movement and eventual
position of the leading cold front which is expected to cross
the area on Thursday and stall out to the south of the mason
dixon line. This scenario should eventually allow cooler and
drier (less humid) air to spread into the region behind the
front and bring a nice stretch of weather from late week through
the weekend.

The cold front will be a focus for thunderstorms as it pushes
southeast on Thursday. A severe storm risk upgrade is possible
across a portion of the area (most likely southeast pa). A
trailing wave of low pressure riding along the stalled frontal
boundary could bring another round of rain to the southern tier
of central pa on Friday. This outcome is supported by the latest
operational ECMWF but considered a low probability outcome at
this time given lack of support from other guidance.

Still expect Thursday to be the transition day with frontal
passage fueling storms followed by push of cooler and drier
air Thursday night. The FROPA will also spell some temporary
relief from the recent hot and muggy conditions. High pressure
and lower humidity should translate into pleasant and warm days
and comfortably cool nights with valley fog fri-sun.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Expect widespreadVFR to continue into the evening.

A mainly clear night with high humidity should lead to fog and
low clouds causing restrictions at most airports during the few
hours either side of sunrise Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop and become most numerous
Tuesday afternoon and evening, causing local brief restrictions.

Outlook
Wed... Rounds of pm showers thunderstorms. Late night and early
morning fog low clouds.

Thu... TrendingVFR northwest; chance of t-storms southeast.

Fropa Thursday night.

Fri-sat... No sig wx.

Climate
Harrisburg tied the previous record high of 97 degrees
yesterday.

Record highs for august 19:
harrisburg 97 in 1966
williamsport 94 in 1899
altoona 91 in 1983
bradford 86 in 1978
state college 96 in 1899

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for paz065-066.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... La corte
short term... La corte
long term... Gartner steinbugl
aviation... La corte
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi52 min WSW 4.1 G 7 92°F 85°F1014.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi58 min S 8 G 14 90°F 80°F1014.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi52 min 89°F 83°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi53 minWNW 710.00 miFair91°F68°F47%1014.9 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi71 minWNW 810.00 miFair88°F71°F59%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S6N5NE12NE7E3N4CalmSE3NW3CalmCalmE3E3E3NW3CalmCalmSW5NW6W7N7N6W7
1 day agoS6S6S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE3CalmCalmSE4Calm44S5SW44S13
G18
2 days agoS5N8E3E3CalmSE4E3E3E4CalmCalmE4E4E3CalmCalmE4SE4E6SE10SW7CalmW5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:48 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:18 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.82.92.72.52.11.81.51.31.31.522.633.232.72.31.81.41.10.911.4

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:52 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:01 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.22.11.81.410.60.50.50.81.31.82.22.32.21.91.510.60.40.30.611.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.