Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 29, 2021 6:04 PM EDT (22:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 439 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.tornado watch 401 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 439 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the area through this evening before crossing the region late tonight. A second, weaker front will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in for Saturday before another area of low pressure possibly affects the region Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 292059 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 459 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Isolated wind damage and isolated tornado threats are focused over the southern half of central Pennsylvania into this evening. A northwest breeze will bring dry and more comfortable air into the area on Friday, setting the stage for a refreshing cooldown to close out July 2021.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Low CAPE high shear environment manifesting itself this afternoon across central PA. Stratiform rainfall north of I80 with minimal to null severe threat there. South of I-80 stratification varies after a day of largely overcast conditions and areas of rain, as shear profiles have increased dramatically since this morning. Low LCLs and impressive 0-1km and 0-3km EHI can promote rapid increase in cyclonic rotation as we've seen in northern Cambria and Westmoreland/Somerset counties. All this despite the fact that clearing and sfc heating have not developed anywhere.

TOR Watch #401 remains in effect until 9 PM for southern half of central PA east of the Alleghenies. 40-50kt deep-layer shear profiles in place with 0-3km SRH values 200-300+ m2s2. Discrete rotating cells and or bowing line segments may be possible, producing locally damaging winds and a possible tornado or two. This atmosphere is as sheared as I have seen in central PA, and spinups can happen rapidly, so we'll be watching closely throughout the afternoon and early evening.

The severe threat should end by 8PM give or take, but showers could linger in spots for most of the night. MinT will trend a few degrees warmer overall with the largest positive 24hr deltas over the middle and upper Susquehanna Valley. Post-frontal NW flow should align low clouds upslope along the western Alleghenies into early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Improving conditions are expected in the wake of the cold FROPA Friday with much drier air poised to arrive via refreshing NW breeze. Look for a mix of sun and clouds and low humidity. The latest model data suggests a passing shower is possible mainly across the NE zones under the cool pocket aloft, but this may be more diurnal cu vs. pcpn that actually reaches the ground given dewpoints dropping into the 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The dry/low PW airmass will set the stage for a rather cool Friday night/AM Saturday with minTs ranging from the mid 40s over the NW Alleghenies to the mid 50s across the southeast valleys (good sleeping weather). MaxT Friday will be about 5-10F below daily climo. Look forward to a beautiful start to the weekend and last day of July 2021. The next cold front is fcst to settle down across the lower Great Lakes by Sunday morning with NBM PPIs signaling low precip probs across the NW mtns by 12Z Sun.

Shortwave trough pushing south across Ontario on Saturday will lead to backing flow aloft as modest return flow sets up for late Saturday and Sunday, spelling the return of shower chances across the Alleghenies late Saturday. A better shot for showers/storms will exist for all of central PA on Sunday as a surface low moves across Lake Ontario.

Much of Monday should remain dry, outside of a few lingering early day showers across the northern tier. Another upper low looks to dig into the western Great Lakes/Midwest into Tuesday, which will once again lead to increasing moisture and subsequent shower/storm chances into midweek. Below normal temperatures look to remain the rule, with highs generally in the low 70s north to low 80s south and lows spanning the 50s with low 60s in the lower Susquehanna Valley.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Adjusted the TAFS just after 4 PM for current and expected conditions.

Northern PA less likely to see much more in the way of showers, but southern PA still likely to see showers and storms until mid evening.

Earlier discussion below.

There is the potential for a few TSRA with gusty winds in the afternoon as well, especially for southern terminals.

A cold front will cross through northern terminals AOB 00z Fri and continue through southern terminals by 06z Fri. This will bring an end to TSRA activity but MVFR or IFR cigs will likely persist at BFD and JST into Fri morning in moist upslope NW flow.

Outlook .

Fri & Sat . No sig wx expected.

Sun . Chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Mon . Mostly VFR.

Tue . A chance of showers.

CLIMATE. It's been a wet July in some parts of central PA. Through July 28th, the monthly precipitation at Harrisburg is 7.99 inches which currently ranks 2021 as the 9th wettest July on record.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM . DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM . DeVoir/Steinbugl LONG TERM . Guseman/Ross/DeVoir AVIATION . Martin/Colbert/Travis CLIMATE . Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi46 min S 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 83°F1009.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi46 min S 7 G 9.9 80°F 1009.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi46 min 79°F 81°F1008.8 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi71 minSW 107.00 miLight Rain79°F71°F77%1009.4 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi69 minN 09.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE3NE3NE4E4E5E4E3E3E4CalmCalmS8S8S8S6S8SW10SW8S6S9SW9SW10SW9
1 day agoNW6N3CalmCalmW3E5CalmCalmE3NE3NW4W4CalmCalm36N63NW3NE7NW4N6N9NE6
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6NW6NW7NW5NW8W7W8NW7W6NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:57 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.422.62.92.92.72.321.71.41.31.31.62.12.6332.72.41.91.51.20.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:35 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.522.22.221.61.30.90.60.50.711.51.92.12.221.71.30.90.50.40.40.8

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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