Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:13 AM   Moonset 12:37 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 735 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon - .
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 735 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure briefly returns today before a slow moving front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Unsettled conditions look to linger over the waters heading into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed on both Friday night and Saturday.

FXUS61 KCTP 022329 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 729 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for Friday as high pressure slides to the northeast.

-Unsettled starting Friday night with occasional showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will be Friday night in the west and Saturday in the southeast.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Previous discussion... Dry air covers the entire CWA, now with Td 33F at BFD and readings nearing 50F in the far SE. The upper high is right overhead and keeping even the high clouds at bay for now. There will be some high clouds move in from the west overnight, but not thick enough to affect the sfc temps. Expect mins in the m40s at BFD to the m50s in the SE as the wind goes calm in lots of places.

715 pm update... All remains quiet this evening, with very dry boundary layer air in place across the Commonwealth. Upstream satellite imagery and near-term model guidance shows a gradual influx of higher-level cloudiness later tonight into Friday morning, but that looks like about it. Some of our guidance is suggesting that an area of maritime low cloudiness could impinge on NJ and far eastern PA, but we think this lower cloud mass will very likely stay east of the Susquehanna Valley overnight and early Friday.

By daybreak, low temperatures should range from the mid 40s over the northern mountains, to the mid 50s over south-central PA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Sfc ridge slides E/NE on Fri, and moist return/srly flow brings dewpoints back into the u50s W and l50s E. Stability dips over the western mtns with TSRA popping by mid-aftn in the highest elevation of the Laurels and in the ANF/far NW. These should multiply and spread to the east through the night. Some of these could be moving slowly and PWAT will be 1.25" over the west by sunset. FFG is 1-1.5"/1hr in the west, and slightly higher east. Thus, there is a MRGL risk for excessive rainfall over the western third/half of the CWA due to potential for heavy rainfall. Have increased PoPs to likelies and low-end catg for Fri night for the SWrn half of the CWA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
-Noticeably cooler this weekend with periods of rain -Trending warmer/above climo but remaining unsettled next week

A slow moving frontal system combined with anomalous pwats will bring periods of rain to central PA this weekend. A few non- severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely along and west of the Alleghenies on the edge of warmer air surging into the upper Ohio Valley. The eastern slopes of the Alleghenies into the Susquehanna Valley will noticeably cooler with rain, low clouds and moist southeast flow. We trimmed max temps on Saturday due to the CAD pattern setup. Rain/showers continue on Sunday with highs recovering ~10F on the western and southern periphery of the CWA Despite the relatively high moisture available, overall stability should limit rain rates especially east of the mtns and preclude flooding risk. 48hr blended mean QPF ranges from 0.50-0.75" with spot amounts up to 1 inch possible.

The front stalls near or south of the MD line before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps are forecast to trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s next week.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
00z update... VFR/unrestricted conditions should remain in place across central PA terminal sites into Friday evening. Confidence on this scenario is fairly high (70-90%).

Two potential flies in the ointment. First, an area of lower cloudiness backing in from the Atlantic across NJ and perhaps southeastern PA later tonight and early Friday. There is low (10-15%), but non-zero chance that these clouds reach KLNS for a brief time. If they did, fuel alternate or even IFR ceiling bases would be possible. Secondarily, an area of showers could reach the Allegheny Highlands late in the day Friday (as early as 21-22z) and perhaps bring fuel alternate-MVFR restrictions at KJST and KBFD. Once again, the threat is relatively low (10-20%), but certainly non-zero.

Light surface winds overnight (5 kt or less), will increase out of the SE to 5-10 kt Friday. Occasional gusts of around 20 kt could occur in the afternoon at KJST.

Outlook...

Sat PM-Sun...Widespread restrictions across the central and western mountains due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CLIMATE
Several records were tied or set on Thursday May 2nd: SITE OBSERVED TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD Altoona 87F 87 in 1954 Harrisburg 90F 88 in 1913 State College ??* 86 in 1938 Williamsport 89F 89 in 2018

*Official report from State College will be available Friday morning.

May 2nd was also the first 90F day at Harrisburg. It is the 13th earliest 90F day on record. The earliest 90F day occurred on April 17th in 1896 and 2002. The average first 90F day is June 1st.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:28 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:19 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:11 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:07 PM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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