Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seven Springs, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:24PM Thursday September 16, 2021 7:24 AM EDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 12:51AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seven Springs , PA
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location: 40.04, -79.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 161120 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 720 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Isolated showers and storms are possible through early this weekend, but otherwise warm and mostly dry weather is expected through the early part of the next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Areas of fog and low stratus continues to impact the region this morning. Visibility improvement is expected as daytime mixing ensues, with daytime high temperature a few degrees above average anticipated. Most of the region should be dry with the exception of the far sern portion of the forecast area in WV, where continued llvl moisture in the vicinity of a cold front should trigger isolated, afternoon thunderstorms east of the I-79/I-68 corridor.

Previous . GOES nighttime microphysics imagery showing areas of fog and low stratus developing and/or expanding in wake of yesterday's cold front as skies clear. Fog and low stratus will dissipate within a few hours after sunrise once mixing commences.

A warm and mostly dry day is on deck for the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains. We'll find ourselves in weak flow aloft / nondescript upper-level synoptic regime between a southern stream interacting with tropical energy across the Mid-Atlantic and southwest flow in the northern stream up in the Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure across the northeast will result in a light easterly flow today w/ some return southerlies bringing in warmer air in the mid-levels.

Model guidance is indicating some shower activity near peak heating today, primarily across the Alleghenies. Wouldn't rule it out, but warm and dry mid-levels and lack of a strong forcing mechanism will limit coverage immensely. Have low-end POPs from the Laurels through the higher terrain of WV. Otherwise, it should be a dry day for the area.

Temps will be 5-10 degrees above average, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows Thursday night in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Friday will be a near repeat of Thursday, but probably a few degrees warmer thanks to some modest warm advection in the boundary layer.

Mid-level ridging begins to build across the area on Saturday, with sfc high pressure centered across Ontario driving light northerly flow in the low-levels into the Upper Ohio Valley. Another rogue shower or two or three may pop develop in the early afternoon, but upper-level subsidence and warming mid-level air should inhibit convective activity, especially towards late afternoon and beyond.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. By Sunday, the upper flow pattern amplifies significantly. A deep trough becomes carved out over the Rockies by Monday as shortwave energy digs over the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Downstream ridging is then established over the eastern CONUS in response, with most models showing 590+dm 500mb heights over our area by early next week. Along with warm mid-level air, this will largely suppress any diurnal convective development from Sunday through probably Tuesday, so will run with a largely dry forecast.

This pattern would suggest a heat wave with 90+ temperatures during the height of summer, but with a weakening sun angle, plus a relatively cool easterly low-level flow, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and mid 80s for the area . still well above normal.

GFS and ECMWF have trended a bit faster with a deep upper-level low advancing towards the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Wednesday. If these solutions hold true, a cold front may push through the region that day, bringing a chance of rain.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Llvl moisture beneath increasing subsidence in the wake of the front will maintain IFR/LIFR cigs, especially east of PIT and fog for northern ports.

Gradual improvement to VFR is expected toward midday as diurnal mixing ensues, with a cu deck around 3,500ft likely through the afternoon. Most ports will remain precip-free except for MGW; where a TEMPO -TSRA has been included to address best potential for afternoon convection based on proximity to a cold front, though coverage should remain isolated.

Outlook. Building high pres is expected to maintain general VFR save for localized, morning fog.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. OH . None. WV . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Latrobe / Westmoreland, PA18 mi37 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist63°F63°F100%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLBE

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